【作者】 李凯；

【导师】 潘润秋；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是国家经济的基础。我国农业发展水平与国际存在较大差距,国内农业区域发展不均衡,因此如何提高农业生产效率,改变以往盲目投入资源来提高农业产值的粗放模式并发展现代化高效农业是值得研究的问题。国内外学者运用不同的模型针对不同空间尺度和时间跨度的区域农业生产效率进行了定量的研究,在比较不同模型的优缺点后,本文决定采用超效率SBM模型和Malmquist全要素生产率指数对我国31个省、自治区、直辖市(不含港澳台)的农业生产效率进行分析。本文首先通过比较国际比较发现我国农业生产在高效化、规模化、机械化方面都存在可以提高的空间。另外通过空间分析我国农业发展呈现东西不均的空间格局,与区域人口密度和经济发展水平呈高度的一致性,而且在几大平原粮食主产区呈现显著的空间集聚性。接着通过效率分析发现2000-2015年我国各省农业生产综合(技术)效率总体有所提高,其来自于纯技术效率的大幅提高,而规模效率总体有略微下降,性质上从规模报酬不变或者递增的状态转变到了规模报酬递减的状态。通过松弛性分析发现纯技术效率无效的省份主要是在土地、机械、水利和电力四个方面存在冗余投入。2000-2015年全国农业全要素生产率都得到了极大的提高,其中有的源于综合(技术)效率的提高,有的源于技术进步。同时运用收敛性分析发现各省间农业生产全要素生产率趋于收敛,各省农业生产全要素生产率也在逐渐向各自的均衡状态移动。最后运用Tobit模型回归分析发现对农业生产效率为正面影响的因素是劳动力教育水平、区域人均GDP以及财政支农水平,负面影响的因素是恩格尔系数、规模化以及受灾率。要提高农业生产效率,从投入产出的角度来看,短期应该减少冗余的投入,并根据规模无效的性质适当调整规模,长期而言还是应该将提高生产与管理技术作为关键;从生产条件的角度来看,应该提高农民文化素质与技术技能,发展农村经济并改善农民生活,提高财政支农水平来调动农民生产积极性,并强化抗灾意识和提高抗灾能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture is foundation of national economy.China’s agricultural development is rather lower than other countries,and the domestic agricultural regional development is not balanced.So how to improve agricultural production efficiency and change the extensive inefficient growth way is worth studying.Domestic and foreign scholars take various models in different spatial scale and time span of regional agricultural production efficiency study.On the basis of exploring the advantages and disadvantages in the works of pioneer contributors,this paper takes the Super-SBM,Malmquist TFP Index and Tobit model to study China agricultural production efficiency,and offers relevant recommendations for production efficiency improvement.This paper first analyzes the current situation of China agricultural development,and finds that China is weak in agricultural production intensification and mechanization by comparing the agricultural indexes of China and other countries in 2014.In addition,through spatial analysis,author finds that agricultural development is not balanced between the eastern and the western China which is highly consistent with the spatial distribution of population density and economic development.And there is significant spatial clustering in several major grain producing areas.This paper then takes the Super-SBM and Malmquist TFP Index to study the agricultural production efficiency of 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2015.Author finds that the technical efficiency of agricultural production of China has improved in past 15 years,which is due to the substantial increase in the pure technical efficiency.And the scale efficiency has decreased slightly,who has changed from the constant or increasing return to scale to the decreasing.Through the slack analysis,it is found that the pure technical inefficient provinces are excessive in land,machinery,irrigation and electricity inputs.The total factor productivity(TFP)of agriculture in China has improved greatly from 2000 to 2015,some of which are due to the improvement of technical efficiency,and some to the technological progress.Through the convergence analysis,author finds that the TFP of agriculture of different provinces tend to convergence,and meanwhile they are gradually moving towards their own equilibrium state.In the end of this paper author analyzes the factors probably affecting the agricultural production efficiency by Tobit regression model and finds that the positive factors are the educational level of labor,the regional GDP and the support from finance,and the negative factors are the Engel Index,the per capita sown area and the proportion of area affected by natural disaster.更多还原