【作者】 刘倩；

【导师】 汤伟纲；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工商管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 电力行业是我国基础能源产业之一,电力系统的安全、稳定直接关系着我国的国民经济。电力行业的小型基建项目是指为电网企业生产经营服务的各类用房和其他非经营性生产配套设施的新建、扩建和购置。电网小型基建是电力基础工程的保障,直接影响着电力事业的发展水平。在经济社会发展的带动下和绿色发展的思想指引下,社会各界对电的需求量迅速增加,一流城市能源互联网建设乃至全球能源互联网建设的进度不断加快,电网企业的投资规模不断扩大,电力服务的灵活性不断增强,随之而来的是电网小型基建建设需求的增加。电网小型基建具有投资相对较大、技术管理相对复杂、时间成本较高、劳动力需求量大等特点,建设过程中潜在的风险防不胜防。综上所述,探讨如何做好电网小型基建管理,建立电网小型基建风险可控、能控、在控机制,对于提升电网企业投资收益,确保项目顺利实施,获得预期的社会、经济等综合效益具有十分重要的意义。本论文对国内外的相关资料进行了查阅,进而系统、全面地分析了电网小型基建风险管理,并结合实际案例提出有效的风险防控措施和建议。首先介绍了风险管理在国内外研究的发展沿革和主要领域,并对研究的重点及方向进行了明确;针对电网小型基建的风险的内涵、风险识别和评估管控的理论表述做出了回顾与总结。经过对比分析这些资料,得出的结论是各种经常用来分析评价风险的方法都受到一定的限制或约束,针对这些常用方法的优点和缺点以及它们的适用范围,同时考虑到电网小型基建中风险因素存在模糊、不确定等特征,本论文提出对现存风险进行模糊处理和分层分析,建立以模糊层次分析方法为核心的电网小型基建风险评估模型,对电网小型基建进行风险识别、分析、评估、防范闭环管理。为验证理论实践成效,本文以电网企业小型基建项目个案为例,运用模糊层次分析,识别项目风险,科学评估不同风险要素发生的规律及对整个项目有什么影响及影响的大小,进而对包括项目整体风险等级、风险损失等在内的风险管理核心数据进行整体把控,精准制定相应的风险应对措施。本文为电网企业小型基建项目风险管理的体系化、科学化、精准化具有非常重要的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The power industry is one of the fundamental energy industries in our country,and the safety and stability of power system is directly related to our national economy.Compared with the power grid infrastructure projects,small infrastructure projects are new,expanded and purchased for all kinds of housing and other non-operational production facilities for the production and operation of power enterprises.Small infrastructure projects are the foundation of power infrastructure projects,which directly affect the development of power industry.With the development of economic society and the concept of green development,electricity consumption is increasing,and the progress of the construction of the energy Internet in the first-class cities and the construction of the global energy Internet has been accelerating.The investment scale of power enterprises is expanding continuously,and the flexibility of power service is increasing,what followed is a strengthening of the construction of small infrastructure projects.Small infrastructure projects have the characteristics of relatively large investment,relatively complex technology management,time consuming and so on.The potential risks can be seen everywhere in the construction process.Therefore,it is important to keep the management of small capital construction projects so as to ensure that the risk of small infrastructure projects can be controlled,controlled and controlled,so as to guarantee the investment income of the power enterprises and ensure successful implementation of the project,so as to achieve the desired social and economic comprehensive benefitsTo consult the relevant information at home and abroad,this paper in view of the small construction project risk management has carried on the comprehensive and systematic analysis,combined with the actual case effective risk prevention and control measures and Suggestions are put forward.Firstly,this paper introduces the development and main fields of domestic and foreign research of small infrastructure projects,and clarifies the research direction and emphases of this paper.Secondly,it reviews the connotation,risk identification and evaluation control theory of small infrastructure projects.Comparison and analysis found that various common methods of risk analysis and evaluation have their own limitations.In view of the advantages and disadvantages of common methods of risk analysis and the scope of application,taking into account the vague and uncertain characteristics of risk factors in small infrastructure projects,we propose a hierarchical analysis and fuzzy analysis of existing risks,and establish a risk assessment model for small infrastructure projects based on fuzzy hierarchical analysis method.Therefore,the risk identification,analysis,evaluation and prevention of closed-loop management are carried out for small infrastructure projects.To verify the theoretical and practical results,this paper takes the case of small infrastructure project of tianjin electric power training center of the state grid as an example and use fuzzy level analysis to identify project risks,and scientifically assess the occurrence of different risk factors and the impact on the whole project.In turn,the core data of risk management,such as the overall risk level and risk loss of the project can be clearly defined,and corresponding risk response measures should be accurately formulated.This paper is an important reference for the systematization,scientification and precision of the risk management of small infrastructure projects in power enterprises.更多还原