【作者】 周群；

【导师】 杨来科；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 中国是世界贸易大国,也是世界上二氧化碳排放量最大的国家。2013年我国的碳排放量高达100亿吨,超过美国和欧盟的总额。多年来,由巨大的进出口贸易量以及粗放的经济增长模式带来的巨大的碳排放量遭到了国际组织以及其他各国的非议与压力。但是,考虑到中国“加工贸易大国”的身份以及“大进大出”的贸易模式,其很大一部分碳排放量是为其他国家的消费买单,因此必须厘清各国的碳减排责任,为我国在国际谈判中争取更公平的待遇。本文基于区分中间品贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型,测算了2000—2014年间中国与三个东亚地区:日本、韩国、中国台湾地区的贸易隐含碳。此外还将贸易带来的环境红利和经济收益联系起来,构建了一个新指标:单位附加值净出口隐含碳,即每获得一单位国内附加值所需承担的碳排放量,通过数据测算研究国际贸易带来的影响,从而平衡各方面的利益。最后还设置了一个无加工贸易的假定情境,再将两种情况下的系数指标进行对比,以此来探讨加工贸易对中国环境和经济的影响。研究发现:自本世纪初以来,中国因与日本进行贸易产生的出口隐含碳最多,而进口隐含碳方面,随着时间的不同,中国最大的贸易隐含碳进口地区也有所不同。2000—2003年间,中国的碳排放最多地向中国台湾地区转移,2004—2007年,则最多地转移至日本,2007年以后,中国的碳排放最多地由韩国负担。总的来说,中国是日本、韩国、中国台湾地区的净出口隐含碳国家。从行业来看,我国的C4(纺织品、皮革及制鞋业)、C12(光电设备制造业)、C2(采矿业)、C11(基本金属及金属压延业)、C8(化学品制造业)承担了最多的来自其他地区消费而产生的碳排放责任,而C11(基本金属及金属压延业)、C8(化学品制造业)、C10(其他非金属制品业)、C7(炼焦、石油加工业)则最多地向其他地区转移了二氧化碳排放量。此外,2000—2014年间,中国在与日本、韩国、中国台湾地区开展进出口贸易时,大部分行业的单位附加值净出口隐含碳系数在稳步下降。特别的,在无加工贸易的假定情境下,除了在个别年份里,与个别地区开展双边贸易时,中国的C2(采矿业)、C3(食品、饮料、烟草制造品业)、C4(纺织品、皮革及制鞋业)的系数指标小于正常情况下的系数指标,其他大部分行业在绝大多数年份里的单位附加值净出口隐含碳系数均大于正常情况下的系数指标。因此,针对当前状况,我国应基于环保角度改进生产技术,从源头控制碳排量;此外,积极倡导科研开发,增加国产品中自主研发成分也必不可少。最后,调整贸易结构,鼓励支持加工贸易转型升级也是不可忽视的一个环节。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a major trading nation and the world’s largest carbon emitter.In 2013,China’s carbon emission was as high as 10 billion tons,which was more than that of the European Union and the United States combined.Over the years,the huge volume of bilateral trade and the resulting large amounts of carbon emissions have been criticized and stressed by international organizations and other countries.At present,China has been required to fulfill the same emission reduction responsibilities as the developed countries in Cancun and Durban World Climate Conferences.However,in view of China’s status as a large processing trade country,a huge part of its ultra-high carbon emissions is to pay for the consumption of other countries.So it is necessary to clarify the emission reduction responsibility of each country and strive for a more fair treatment for China in the international negotiations.Based on a non-competitive input-output model,this paper studied carbon dioxide embodied in the international trade between China and three East Asian regions: Japan,South Korea and Taiwan,China from 2000 to 2014.In addition,a new index called net export of carbon emissions per unit of value added which links environmental dividends to economic returns is constructed.Finally,a hypothetical scenario of the trade without processing trade is set up,and the coefficient indexes in the two cases are compared to further explore the impact of processing trade on China’s environment and economy.The results of the research are shown below:From a regional perspective,since the beginning of this century,China takes the most carbon emissions for Japan while transfers the most to different regions over time.In summary,China is a net exporter to the three East Asian regions.From an industry perspective,our country’s C4(Manufacture of Textiles,Wearing Apparel and Leather Products),C12(Manufacture of Computer,Electronic and Optical Products),C2(Mining and Quarrying),C11(Manufacture of Basic Metals),C8(Manufacture of Chemicals and Chemical Products)export the most embodied carbon while C11(Manufacture of Basic Metals),C8(Manufacture of Chemicals and Chemical Products),C10(Manufacture of Other Non-metallic Mineral Products),C7(Manufacture of Coke and Refined Petroleum Products)import the most hidden carbon.In addition,most industries’ net export of carbon emissions per unit of value added in China decreased steadily from 2000 to 2014.In particular,under a hypothetical scenario of the trade without processing trade,except for C2(Mining and Quarrying),C3(Manufacture of Food Products,Beverages and Tobacco Products),C4(Manufacture of Textiles,Wearing Apparel and Leather Products),other industries’ indexes are higher than that in normal trade situation.Therefore,China should improve production technology to control carbon emissions.What’s more,it is also necessary to actively advocate scientific research and develop new products with high-tech and high-value-added.Finally,China should optimize the trade structure and encourage the transformation and upgrading of processing trade.更多还原