【作者】 杨波；

【导师】 王林；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 工程硕士（建筑与土木工程）（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 我国土地制度和住房制度改革不断深化过程中,房地产业发展迅速,并在国民经济发展中发挥着举足轻重的作用。作为房地产重要组成部分的商业地产,也得到快速发展。随着住宅市场的政策调控不断加码,商业地产市场成为了越来越多房地产企业的选择。商业地产的快速扩张,同时受到互联网、电商等新技术、新零售模式的挑战,商业地产供求失衡等问题不断显现,库存、空置率上升,经营效益下降。商业地产预警通过对商业地产市场运行状况的监测和预测,及时预警预报,有利于为政府、商业地产企业、投资者、零售商服务商等相关主体提供决策依据,促进商业地产市场的健康有序发展。目前房地产预警理论研究与实践多集中于整体房地产市场及住宅市场,少有对商业地产市场的预警研究。本文以狭义的商业地产为对象,以宏观经济预警、房地产预警理论和方法为基础。构建商业地产预警指标体系,提出商业地产预警运行机制,并以重庆市为例进行商业地产预警实证分析。通过文献分析,梳理出商业地产预警初选指标;在初选指标的基础上,以指标选取原则为导向,通过专家评分对初选指标进一步精简;结合商业地产市场“冲击——传导”分析,将预警指标分为商业地产自身发展速度、商业地产内部协调性、商业地产与国民经济协调性三类,运用聚类分析和相关性分析进行筛选,得到最终的商业地产预警指标体系。商业地产预警功能的实现除了要建立科学合理的预警指标体系,还依赖于高效、健全的运行机制。商业地产预警运行机制是一个多维度、复杂而有序的整体,由预警预报机制、组织机制、信息机制、监督约束机制四大子系统及其各自的细分要素构成。预警预报机制包括预警方法、指标体系、指标权重确定、警值预测、警界划分和警情分析;组织机制的核心是组织架构;信息机制包括商业地产预警指标数据的收集与储存、警情发布、政策信息库、专家库、警情对策库、信息化平台建设。监督机制包括对商业地产预警从预警信息搜集、分析处理、警情发布,到应对措施实施的整个预警过程的监督与约束。通过重庆市商业地产预警的实证分析,验证了本文构建的商业地产预警指标体系及运行机制具有较好的适用性。研究结果表明,2000-2017年重庆市商业地产综合运行状况呈现波动状态,大多数年份表现正常,预测2018年也处于正常状态。但也表现出了规模增长过快、库存较高,经营效益下降等问题。提出促进重庆市商业地产市场健康发展的建议:积极推进商业地产制度法规建设、科学编制建设规划,完善土地供应机制,加强基础设施建设,创新商业地产开发运营模式。以期为重庆市商业地产相关主体的决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the process of deepening the reform of China’s land system and housing system,the real estate industry has developed rapidly and played a pivotal role in the development of the national economy.As an important part of real estate,commercial real estate has also been continuously developed.As the macro-control of the residential market continues to increase,more and more real estate development companies are shifting from the residential market to the commercial real estate market.At the same time of rapid expansion of commercial real estate,it is challenged by new technologies such as the Internet and e-commerce,and new retail models.The imbalance between supply and demand of commercial real estate is constantly emerging,inventory and vacancy rates are rising,and operating efficiency is declining.Commercial real estate early warning through the monitoring and forecasting of the commercial real estate market operation,timely warning and forecasting,is conducive to provide a basis for the relevant economic real estate to make correct economic decisions,and promote the healthy and orderly development of the commercial real estate market.At present,the research and practice of real estate early warning theory mostly focuses on the overall real estate market and residential market,but there are few early warning studies on the commercial real estate market.This paper takes narrow commercial real estate as the object,draws on macroeconomic early warning,real estate early warning theory and method,and uses literature analysis method,expert scoring method,cluster analysis method,analytic hierarchy process,exponential smoothing method and other research methods to construct commercial real estate early warning indicator system,and proposes a commercial real estate early warning operation mechanism,finally,takes Chongqing as an example to conduct an empirical analysis of commercial real estate early warning.Through literature analysis,the preliminary indicators of commercial real estate early warning are sorted out;on the basis of primary selection indicators,guided by the principle of index selection,the primary selection indicators are further streamlined by expert scores;combined with the analysis of “impact-transmission” of commercial real estate market.The early warning indicators are divided into three categories: commercial real estate development speed,commercial real estate internal coordination,commercial real estate and national economic coordination.The cluster analysis and correlation analysis are used to screen and obtain the final commercial real estate early warning index system.The commercial real estate early warning operation mechanism is a multi-dimensional,complex and orderly whole.It consists of four subsystems: early warning and forecasting mechanism,organizational mechanism,information mechanism and supervision mechanism and their respective subdivision elements.The early warning and forecasting mechanism is the key to early warning,including early warning methods,early warning indicator systems,early warning indicator weight determination,warning value prediction,warning limitation division and warning situation analysis.The core organizational mechanism is the organizational structure.The information mechanism includes the collection and storage of commercial real estate early warning indicator data,warning situation release,policy information database,expert database,warning situation countermeasures database,and information platform construction.The supervision mechanism includes supervision and restriction on the early warning process of commercial real estate warning from the collection,analysis and treatment of the early warning information,the release of the warning situation,and the implementation of the response measures.Through the empirical analysis of commercial real estate early warning in Chongqing,it is verified that the commercial real estate early warning indicator system and operation mechanism constructed in this paper have good applicability.From 2000 to 2017,the comprehensive operation status of commercial real estate in Chongqing showed a fluctuating state,and most of the years performed normally.It is predicted that it will be in normal state in 2018.However,it also showed problems such as rapid growth in scale,high inventory,and declining operating efficiency.This paper puts forward suggestions for promoting the healthy development of commercial real estate in Chongqing: actively promote the construction of commercial real estate system regulations,scientific preparation and construction planning,improve the land supply mechanism,strengthen infrastructure construction,and innovate commercial real estate development and operation mode.In order to provide reference for the decision-making of relevant subjects of commercial real estate in Chongqing.更多还原