【作者】 刘超；

【导师】 蔡薇；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 船舶与海洋工程， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 随着长江黄金水道建设不断深入及我国对外贸易的持续扩张,江海直达运输及江海直达船型将得到长足发展。然而目前我国内河船型技术水平相对落后,船型综合性能与通航环境及市场需求不匹配。同时由于近年来国际经济发展放缓,船队运力过剩现象较为明显,大批航运企业亏损严重。另一方面,节能减排已成为航运业的共识,关于排放的各种法规政策深刻地影响着船队的配置及运营,已成为船型及船队优化中不可忽视的因素。针对以上问题,本文依据江海直达运输特点,结合惩罚成本函数及综合评价体系实现对江海直达船型的方案优选及设计航速优化;基于船舶排放控制区(Emission Control Areas,ECAs)与海运碳交易机制(Marine Emission Trading Scheme,METS)建立船队多目标综合优化模型,对低碳背景下江海直达船队的配置及营运航速进行逐年优化,为江海直达船型及船队的长期发展提供综合解决方案。本文首先对江海直达船型及船队的发展环境进行了分析,包括通航环境、低碳背景及市场环境等,重点对不确定条件下的碳减排市场机制进行了比选,探讨了ECAs政策对单船运营及排放的影响,同时采用灰色—马尔科夫链(GM-Markov)方法对特定航线江海直达运输需求进行了预测,为江海直达船型及船队的综合优化奠定基础;根据通航限制条件及船型资料确定江海直达船型要素范围,建立船型方案关键参数计算模型,采用软时间窗约束构造惩罚成本函数,将其融入江海直达船型综合评价体系中,在对各载箱量级别船型方案进行优选的同时实现其设计航速的优化;引入航速变量对传统船队规划模型进行扩展,针对ECAs政策探讨船队应对措施并计算不同船型燃油成本及碳排放,基于METS机制建立船队碳交易模型,最终以船队总成本最低及碳排放最小为目标建立混合整数非线性优化模型,并对模型进行预处理以简化计算;最后设计改进的非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)来求解船队多目标优化模型,决策新建江海直达船队逐年更新策略及最佳营运航速,并分析ECAs及METS机制对船队优化结果的影响,验证了在船队优化中考虑ECAs及METS的重要性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deep development of the Yangtze River’s construction and the continuous expansion of the foreign trade in China,river-sea-going transportation and river-sea-going vessels will obtain considerable development in the future.However,the technical level of the existing ships lags behind,and the ship types do not match the transportation environment.Besides,the fleets’ overcapacity phenomenon becomes worse as the slowdown of world economic,which leads to the deficits of many shipping enterprises.Meanwhile,energy saving and emission reduction has been the trend of the shipping industry.Regulations about the emission have a profound impact on the configuration and operation of the fleets,which has been a significant issue in the optimization of river-sea-through vessels and fleets.In allusion to the above problems,a comprehensive evaluation system as well as the penalty cost function are set up to optimize the ship types and their design speeds with consideration of river-sea-going transportation’s characteristics.Based on the Emission Control Areas(ECAs)and the Marine Emission Trading Scheme(METS),a multi-objective optimization model is established to optimize the yearly configuration and the service speed of the river-sea-going fleet under low-carbon environment.The research in this paper can offer integrated solutions for the long-term development of river-sea-going ships and fleets.This paper firstly analyzes the development environment of river-sea-going ships and fleets,which includes the navigation environment,low-carbon background and market circumstances.The optimum carbon-reduction mechanism is chosen under uncertainty.In addition,the influence of ECAs on single ship’s cost and emission is discussed.At the same time,the cargo demand of a specific river-sea-going route is predicted with the method of GM-Markov,which lays the foundation for the fleet optimization.The ranges of ships’ main parameters are determined according to the navigation constraints and information of the existing ship types.Then the critical technical models are set up to calculate ships’ performance indicators.The soft time window-based penalty cost function is integrated into the synthetic evaluation system to optimize the ship types and design speeds simultaneously.The traditional fleet planning model is extended by introducing the speeds as variables.The responses for river-sea-going fleet are proposed towards the implement of ECAs in China.At the same time,the fleet’s carbon trading model is set up based on METS.Finally,a nonlinear mixed-integer programming model is established with the target of minizing the cost and carbon emission based on former work.In the end,the NSGA-II algorithm is designed to solve the multi-objective optimization problem.The optimum renewal and operation strategy of a newly-built fleet is obtained after the calculation,and the impacts of ECAs and METS on the optimization result are analized,which indicates the significance of considering ECAs and METS in the fleet optimization.更多还原