【作者】 李坚；

【导师】 郑玉华；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学（北京） ， 技术经济及管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 对于油气公司而言,油气资源是其生产经营的物质基础,通过出售油气或其制成品是油气公司获得现金流入的主要方式。因此,决定油气公司价值最重要的因素应该是油气的产量、储量以及进行评估时油气商品的价格。从经济意义上来讲,油气的产量决定了油气公司当期的现金流,储量则决定了未来的现金流,而储量价值则是对油气资源进行价值评估的结果。对于投资者而言,弄清这些因素与油气公司价值的关系是非常重要的。本文在回顾了油气公司价值评估方法和储量价值评估方法的基础上,选取市值和STM(将油气储量按照标准化方法计算的折现现金流)分别作为衡量油气公司价值和储量价值的指标,以OGJ150油气公司为基础,利用一元回归模型,研究了储量、产量及储量价值与油气公司市值之间的关系。研究发现,不管是在高油价时的2008年,还是低油价时的2015年,储量、产量及储量价值都与油气公司的市值有着很高的相关性。对不同储量结构和资产规模的油气公司进行分类研究发现,储量、产量和储量价值与石油公司市值的相关性强于和天然气公司市值的相关性;储量、产量和储量价值与大型油气公司价值的相关性,强于和中小型油气公司市值的相关性。在一元回归分析的基础上,本文利用多元回归模型,选取储量、产量、资本结构、盈利能力等指标,通过逐步剔除检验不显著的变量,分别构建了以储量、产量及储量价值为基础的油气公司价值评估模型,发现储量、产量和储量价值与油气公司的市值都有着显著的正相关关系。通过对比高油价时和低油价时评价模型的差异,发现在高油价时,权益负债率、资产回报率与油气公司市值相关关系显著;在低油价时,流动比率、资产回报率与油气公司市值相关关系显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil and gas resources are the material base of production and operation for oil and gas companies,whose cash inflow primarily depends on selling oil and gas or its products.Therefore,the key factors on determining the values of oil and gas companies are the production of oil and gas,reserves and the price of products on assessment.In perspective of the economic significance,the gas and oil production determines the current cash flow of the oil and gas company,while the future cash flow is determined by the reserves of the gas and oil.The value of the reserves is the result of the value assessment of oil and gas resources.For investors,therefore,to distinguish the correlations between the above mentioned factors and the value of the oil and gas company is very important.In retrospect of the methods of value assessment and reserve evaluation of the oil and gas company,the correlation between market capitalization of oil and gas companies and reserves,production and value of reserves was studied based on OGJ150 companies and simple regression model in this paper,with the market capitalization and STM(Standardized Measure of Discounted Future Net Cash Flows Related to Proved Oil and Gas Reserves)chosen as the indexes for the company and reserve value measurement.In this study,strong correlation between the market capitalization and the reserve,production and reserve value was found,regardless of the high oil price in 2008 or low oil price in 2005.In a classified study of oil and gas companies with different reserve structure and assets scale,it was found that the correlation of reserve,production,reserve value with oil companies market capitalization was stronger than that with gas companies market capitalization.While the correlation of reserve,production,reserve value with large-scale oil and gas companies was stronger than that with small and medium sized oil and gas companies.On the foundation of simple regression analysis,this paper used multiple regression model and selected indexs like reserves,production,capital structure,profitability and so on,by phasing out non-significant variables,established the value assessment models of oil and gas companies based on reserve,production and reserve value.The results show that significant positive correlation of reserve,production and reserve value with market capitalization of oil and gas companies.By comparison of the discrepancy of assessment model of the year with a high or low oil price,debt to equity ratio and return on asstes have a significant correlation with market capitalization of oil and gas companies when the oli price is high while current ratio and return on asstes have a significant correlation with market capitalization of oil and gas companies when the oli price is low.更多还原