【作者】 武健；

【导师】 姜海；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 多样化的公共交通是城市交通系统的重要组成部分。在城市化进程加速和机动车保有量快速增加的背景下,各地政府对于大力发展公共交通系统的重要性已经形成共识,而如何解决好公共交通系统中存在的问题、如何在不断变化的经济社会环境中及时满足新的需求以及如何利用新的科学技术与资源为城市和公共交通系统的发展服务是研究者和决策者共同面临的挑战。本研究着眼于公交线网优化问题,通过文献调研,从公交线网优化的不同维度例如优化目标、约束条件、决策变量、模型结构、求解方式等不同方面总结了现有的研究成果,并基于现有研究的成果和不足提出了本研究所采用的优化模型的框架。通过对一卡通数据的分析与观察,本研究发现在实际公交运营中,车辆到站时间间隔存在很大的随机性,而这一随机性会影响到乘客在站点候车时的期望等候时间,进而影响到出行总成本。因此,基于对一卡通数据的线性回归拟合和多元线性回归拟合,本研究刻画出了车辆到站时间间隔的随机性,并将这一随机性引入了优化模型。而论文中对于一卡通数据的处理分析和应用也展示了一卡通数据在辅助理论研究中的作用。同时,通过合理的假设和模型改进,本研究提出了在单层模型中解决乘客分配子问题的模型结构,并在此基础上加入了换乘约束、道路容量约束、车辆容量约束以及分方向的线路表示方法。最后,本研究通过算例和实际数据对模型和车辆到站时间间隔随机性的影响进行了验证。实验结果表明,车辆到站时间间隔随机性对于乘客等候时间有着显著影响,在一些实际情形下,缩短线路的长度可以减少乘客的期望等候时间,进而提升公交线路的服务水平。本研究的主要贡献主要体现在以下方面:(1)提出了一个新的线网优化模型,并引入了车辆到站间隔随机性因素,使结果更加符合实际,完善了这一领域的研究体系,有助于公交线网的设计、优化和评估方案实施;(2)通过数据分析和拟合刻画了车辆到站时间间隔随机性并对参数进行了估计,提供了量化这一影响因素的方法;(3)通过对实际数据的分析和计算,展示了对线网进行优化和评价的方法,体现了理论研究的实用价值,同时也展示了车辆到站时间间隔随机性对于实际决策所带来的启发。更多还原

【Abstract】 Highly diversified public transportation system is an essential part of the urban transportation system.With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapidly-increasing number of vehicles,governments from all around the world have recognized the importance in the development of public transportation system,yet the proper design of the complex system that meets the demand of ever-changing economic and social environment remains a challenge for all decision makers.Making use of the recent advancement in science and technology,researchers are striving to integrate various sources of information to optimize the design of public transportation system.This study is focused on the public transportation network optimization problem.Firstly,we summarized the previous research results on the transit network design problems,including target optimization,restraining condition selection,decision variables,model structure and equation analysis methods,through extensive literature review.Based on these findings,we propose a single-level mathematical model which takes passenger assignment into consideration.Through the analysis and observation of the IC cards data,we conclude that the inter-arrival time between bus stations is a random variable instead of a constant.As a result,the expected waiting time of passengers at the station is affected.We analyze the randomness of inter-arrival time based on linear and multi-linear regression methods and introduce the randomness into the optimization model.The proposed model is a single-level mathematical model which takes passenger assignment into consideration.Furthermore,other constraints are also included into this model,such as transfer constraints,road capacity constraints,bus capacity constraints,etc.Finally,the proposed model is tested using both example data and real data.The results reveal that the randomness of inter-arrival time has significant effects on the expected passenger waiting time.It is also shown that in certain cases,shortening bus lines will improve the service level by reducing this randomness.The main contribution of this study can be summarized as follows: First,a new transit network design model is proposed,which incorporates the inter-arrival random factor,thus making the results of optimization more practical.Second,we estimated the inter-arrival time by data fitting using IC cards data and provided a method to quantify this factor.Finally,by analyzing the real data with the model developed in this paper,it is shown that our method could be successfully utilized in the optimization and evaluation of the transit network.In addition,it is illustrated how the randomness of inter-arrival time can inspire the process of decision making.更多还原