【作者】 冯浩；

【导师】 李春好；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 工程项目管理， 2019， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产市场主体行为研究是房地产市场研究中的重要一环,对探究房地产市场发展规律和改善措施具有重要意义。传统的研究方法多是根据供需关系理论,利用市场达到供需均衡时的状态来确定产品的产量和价格,该方法的前提假设是市场为完全竞争市场,且参与主体是“理性人”。但我国房地产市场的实际情况并不完全满足上述假设条件,因此,利用传统的研究方法得出的结论可能并不符合房地产市场的实际情况。在互联网技术快速发展的背景下,利用网络大数据对不同领域进行研究的思想已得到广泛应用,但在房地产市场研究方面,该方法的运用却非常少见。那么,能否利用网络大数据对房地产市场主体的行为进行分析也就成了本文研究的出发点。而要回答该问题,则需要先分析网络舆情与房地产市场主体的行为之间是否存在相关性,只有在二者存在相关性的基础上,才能利用网络大数据对房地产市场行为进行研究。为此,本文将网络舆情与房地产市场主体行为之间是否具有相关性作为研究内容,首先,在文献梳理的基础上,对房地产市场的主体及行为进行了分析;其次,通过采集2018年2月至7月的房地产网络新闻报道,利用文本倾向性分析技术对每月的舆情话题倾向性进行计算和分析;然后,利用线性回归模型对舆情话题倾向性与房地产商、消费者和政府的市场行为的相关性进行分析,得出以下结论:(1)房地产网络舆情与房地产商的定产行为存在线性相关性。舆情话题“楼市调控”、“房地产融资”和“房企发展”的倾向性与当期的房地产商定产行为存在正向线性相关性,其中,“楼市调控”是最主要的影响因素。“房价涨跌”、“房地产税”、“房地产产品”的倾向性与滞后一期的房地产商定产行为存在线性相关性,其中,“房地产税”是最主要的影响因素。(2)房地产网络舆情与房地产商的定价行为没有明显的线性相关性。(3)房地产网络舆情与房地产消费者的购买行为存在线性相关性。舆情话题“楼市调控”的倾向性与当期的购买行为存在线性相关性;舆情话题“房价涨跌”、“房地产税”和“房地产产品”的倾向性与滞后一期的购买行为存在线性相关性,其中,“房价涨跌”是主要因素。(4)房地产网络舆情与地方政府的调控行为没有明显的线性相关性。文章最后对网络舆情与房地产市场行为存在相关性的原因进行了分析,并对房地产商、房地产消费者以及地方政府提出了相应的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The research on the behavior of the main body in the real estate market is an important part of the research on the real estate market.It is of great significance to explore the law of the development of the real estate market and improve measures.Traditional research methods are mostly based on the theory of supply-demand relationship,using the state of the market when it reaches the equilibrium of supply and demand to determine the output and price of products.The premise of this method is that the market is a fully competitive market,and the participants are "rational people".However,the actual situation of China’s real estate market does not fully meet the above assumptions,so the conclusions drawn by traditional research methods may not be in line with the actual situation of the real estate market.With the rapid development of Internet technology,the idea of using big data to study different fields has been widely used,but in the real estate market research,the application of this method is very rare.Then,whether we can use the big data of the network to analyze the behavior of the main body of the real estate market has become the starting point of this paper.To answer this question,we need to first analyze whether there is correlation between network public opinion and the behavior of real estate market participants.Only on the basis of the correlation between the two,can we use the big data of network to study the behavior of real estate market.For this reason,this paper regards the correlation between the Internet public opinion and the behavior of the main body of the real estate market as the research content.Firstly,on the basis of literature review,this paper analyses the main body and behavior of the real estate market.Secondly,through collecting the real estate Internet news reports from February to July 2018,this paper uses text orientation analysis technology to calculate the monthly tendency of public opinion topics.Then,we use the linear regression model to analyze the relationship between the topic tendency of public opinion and the market behavior of real estate developers,consumers and the government,and draw the following conclusions:(1)There is a linear correlation between the real estate network public opinion and the real estate enterprises’ fixed-estate behavior.The tendencies of public opinion topics such as "real estate market regulation","real estate financing" and "real estate enterprise development" are positively and linearly correlated with the current real estate agreement behavior,among which "real estate market regulation" is the most important factor.The tendencies of "house price rise and fall","real estate tax" and "real estate products" are linearly correlated with the agreed property behavior of the lagged real estate,among which "real estate tax" is the most important factor.(2)There is no obvious linear correlation between real estate network public opinion and the pricing behavior of real estate developers.(3)There is a linear correlation between real estate network public opinion and real estate consumers’ buying behavior.There is a linear correlation between the tendencies of public opinion topic "real estate market regulation" and the current purchasing behavior;the tendencies of public opinion topic "house price rise and fall","real estate tax" and "real estate products" have a linear correlation with the lagging purchasing behavior,in which "house price rise and fall" is the main factor.(4)There is no obvious linear correlation between real estate network public opinion and local government regulation behavior.In the end,the paper analyses the reasons for the correlation between Internet public opinion and real estate market behavior,and puts forward corresponding suggestions to real estate enterprises,real estate consumers and local governments.更多还原