【作者】 李敏；

【导师】 何子英；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 行政管理专业， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 “平安海区”建设是一项庞大的系统工程,不仅仅着眼于水上交通安全,还涵盖清洁、和谐、文明等诸多方面。如何系统、合理、准确地评价“平安海区”建设成效,对于海区安全管理和稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。目前,国内外相关学者主要关注与水上交通安全评价相关的研究,对于其他方面的评价研究探讨较少。自20世纪七八十年代以来,水上交通安全评价已逐渐从以定性和专家经验为主的主观评价向定量评价转变。近些年,事故树分析法、贝叶斯网络法和模糊数学理论等方法和理论也逐渐应用于对水上交通安全的分析与评估工作中。在我国,五项指标法、安全指数法、综合安全指数法和综合安全评价法等方法的应用较为广泛。借鉴水上交通安全评价方法,本文在充分研究《交通运输部、浙江省人民政府共同推进“平安海区”建设合作意见》和《交通运输部、浙江省人民政府深化浙江“平安海区”建设合作意见》的基础上,系统提出“平安海区”的表现特征,并进一步结合浙江水域实际情况挖掘浙江“平安海区”的建设内涵。借鉴“平安浙江”和“平安交通”的建设体系,本文针对浙江“平安海区”建设内涵,广泛征求专家学者的意见,从否决指标、定性指标和定量指标三个方面建立评价指标体系,并运用综合指数评价法建立完整的浙江“平安海区”建设评价指标模型。随后,通过分析、比对多种常用指标权重确定方法的优劣性,运用模糊层次分析法确定指标的综合权重,对指标权重进行排序以识别重点考察指标。之后,本文以浙江辖区海域2014-2017年的统计数据为基础,进行实例研究,通过获取评价指标的数值并进行无量纲化处理,计算出浙江“平安海区”建设的综合评价指数,从而实现对浙江“平安海区”建设成效的全面评价。最后,基于浙江“平安海区”建设的实际成效和现状,对今后的发展建设提出了合理、有效的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction of "Safe Sea Area" is a huge systematic project,which not only focuses on the safety of water transportation,but also covers other many aspects such as cleanliness,harmony and civilization.How to systematically,rationally and accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the construction of "Safe Sea Area" is of great significance to the safety management and stable development of the sea area.As the construction of "Safe Sea Area" started late,there is no research on the evaluation system of“Safe Sea Area”.Although the research system of water traffic safety evaluation and“safe traffic”evaluation is related to the“Safe Sea Area”construction evaluation system,the evaluation index selection methods of these research systems cannot be fully applied to the "safe sea area" construction evaluation system.On the basis of fully studying the opinions of the Ministry of Transport and the Zhejiang Provincial People’s Government on jointly promoting the construction cooperation of the "Safe Sea Area" and deepening the cooperation and cooperation in the construction of“Safe Sea Area”in Zhejiang,the system draws on the evaluation method of water traffic safety and the evaluation of“safe traffic”indicators to propose the performance characteristics of“Safe Sea Area”and explore the construction connotation of Zhejiang“Safe Sea Area”by combining the actual situation of Zhejiang waters.Drawing on the construction system of“Safe Zhejiang”and "Safe Transportation",this paper,on the basis of extensive consultation with experts and scholars,aims at the construction connotation of Zhejiang "Safe Sea Area" to establish an evaluation index system from qualitative,quantitative and veto indicators three aspects,and construct the evaluation index model of Zhejiang "Safe Sea Area"by the comprehensive index evaluation method.Through comprehensive analysis and comparison of common index weight determination methods,the fuzzy AHP method was used to determine the comprehensive weight of the index,and sort the index weight to identify the key indexes.Then,based on the statistical data of the sea area of Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2017,this paper conducts case study to obtain the numerical values of the evaluation indexes,carry out dimensionless processing and calculate the comprehensive evaluation index of the construction of "Safe Sea Area"in Zhejiang Province,so as to complete the comprehensive evaluation of the construction effect of "Safe Sea Area" in Zhejiang Province.Finally,based on the actual results and current situation of the construction of“Safe Sea Area”in Zhejiang,reasonable and effective suggestions for future development and construction are put forward.更多还原