【作者】 杨晶；

【导师】 孙巍； 张大军；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 煤层气俗称瓦斯,是无色、无味、有毒的气体混合物,比空气轻,易扩散,不溶于水,是一种新型的清洁能源。从2007年以来,国家先后出台了多项扶持政策,给予税收减免优惠、提供财政补贴,打破行业垄断专营权,鼓励煤层气的开采和综合利用,促进了煤层气工业的快速发展。煤层气作为燃料发电,既能合理利用资源,又能保护环境。发展煤层气发电产业不仅具有良好的经济效益和社会效益,而且符合中国大力发展清洁能源、保护环境的方针。本文深入研究了国内外学者关于工程项目管理风险的研究成果,同时也对马军峪煤层气发电项目进行了深入的调研.在此基础上,建立了马军峪煤层气发电项目的风险因素指标体系,运用主成分分析法对马军峪煤层气发电项目进行了分析研究,从而深化了煤层气发电项目的风险管理研究。本文首先从马军峪煤层气发电项目风险识别入手,通过现场收集资料以及与项目所在地长治市发改局和经信局的相关人员沟通,建立了马军峪煤层气发电项目风险识别清单。根据对电力项目开发过程各个阶段的影响因素的识别,从项目规划阶段,包括政治风险、环境风险、资源风险和财务风险;到项目设计阶段,包括技术风险和市场风险;到项目建设阶段,包括设备管理风险和质量风险;后期到项目管理阶段,包括操作和管理风险。按照科学型、导向型、集成型和模块型的原则,针对煤层气发电项目风险管理的主要影响因素进行筛选和过滤,最终提出了相应的风险因素指标。其次,基于风险因素的指标,对影响指标进行分析和评价。本文采用主成分分析法对马军峪煤层气发电项目的风险因素进行了分析。运用统计学计算样本相关系数矩阵,得出矩阵的方差贡献率,从而提取因子,对风险因素提取主成分,筛选和总结出对马军峪煤层气发电项目影响程度相对较大的因素,进而得出结论。最后,在分析结论的基础上,关于马军峪煤层气发电项目的风险控制通过规划的政策防控、建设的运行技术防控、财务经济性防控和运营管理防控多类型分析,得出风险控制和风险转移的措施,从而提出了避开风险的合理意见。通过本文研究,将项目风险管理的概念引入并应用到煤层气发电项目中,通过风险识别、风险因素分析及其风险防控分析,同类型投资运营企业可以参照风险影响因素进行实际评价,由于本身煤层气发电项目的复杂性和技术不同性,应根据项目的实际情况进行同步调整,避免盲目实施,直接复制。在国内设备技术日趋成熟和经营管理更加完善的基础上,通过更多的案例,获取再多的样本积累,争取在煤层气发电项目这个领域达到风险预测更准确,风险防控措施更有效,项目运营更规范。更多还原

【Abstract】 The coal bed methane(CBM)is a clean energy.Since 2007,the government has introduced a number of support policies to break the franchise,tax preferences and financial subsidies to encourage the development and utilization of CBM.Using CBM as fuel for power generation not only makes rational use of resources but also protects the environment.Developing CBM power generation industry not only has good economic and social benefits,but also conforms to China’s policy of developing clean energy and protecting environment.This paper studies deeply the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the risk of project management,and also conducts an in-depth investigation on ma junyu CBM power generation project.On this basis,the risk factor index system of majunyu CBM power generation project was established,and analyzed the majunyu CBM power generation project by using the principal component analysis method,so as to deepen the study on the risk management of CBM power generation project.Firstly,this paper starts with the risk identification of majunyu CBM power generation project,established the risk identification list through on-site data collection and communication with relevant personnel of the government administration section of changzhi city.According to the identification of influencing factors in each stage of the development process of power engineering projects,including political risk,environmental risk,resource risk and financial risk on the project planning and project approval stage;including technical risk and market risk on the project design stage;including equipment management risk and quality risk on the project construction stage and operational management risks are included in the project management stage.The main influencing factors of risk management of CBM power generation project were screened and filtered,and the corresponding risk factor indexes were finally proposed according to the principles of scientific,oriented,integrative and modular,.Secondly,the impact index was analyzed and evaluated based on the established risk factor index.This paper uses the principal component analysis method analyzed the risk factors index of majunyu CBM power generation project in detail.By using statistics to calculate the sample correlation coefficient matrix,the variance contribution rate of the matrix was obtained,factors were extracted,principal components were extracted for risk factors,and factors with relatively large influence were screened and summarized,and then the conclusion was drawn.Finally,on the basis of the analysis conclusion,the measures for risk control and risk transfer ware derived about majunyu CBM power generation project,through policy prevention and control,building risk prevention and control,operation technology prevention and control,financial economy and operation management prevention and control.And the reasonable Suggestions to avoid risk ware put forward.In this research,the concept of project risk management was applied to the coal-bed methane power generation project,through the analysis of the risk identification,risk factors and risk analysis,prevention and control of the same type of investment enterprise can consult risk factors affecting the actual evaluation.Due to the complexity and different technology of the project,it should be adjusted synchronously according to the specific situation of the project,avoiding blind implementation and direct duplication.On the basis of increasingly mature domestic equipment technology and better operation and management,more sample accumulation can be obtained through more cases,we will strive to achieve more accurate risk prediction,more effective risk prevention and control measures and more standard project operation in the field of CBM power generation project.更多还原