【作者】 刘丹；

【导师】 张玉梅；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 金融学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 差别化信贷政策于2007年提出,成为房地产市场调控的重要手段。近些年,房地产市场呈现出一些问题:一二线城市房地产市场供给不足、房价猛涨,且三四线城市房地产库存积压严重,隐藏着巨大的潜在风险,房地产市场进入格局分化的新常态。为了应对房地产市场“区域性”分化,2016年政府职能部门相继出台“史上最严”“频率最快”的差别化信贷政策来调控房地产市场。本文希望通过实证分析,探究差别化信贷政策对房地产市场的调控效果。本文首先梳理了差别化信贷政策对房地产市场影响的国内外研究,介绍了差别化信贷政策相关概念、制定依据和主要目标,分析了差别化信贷政策通过首付比例渠道、利率渠道和限购渠道对房地产市场影响的传导机制。其次,选取2008年10月-2017年12月35个大中城市的月度数据,将房地产价格和成交量作为被解释变量,进一步将差别化信贷政策细化为四个指标——无房无贷首付比例、无房有贷首付比例、有房无贷首付比例和有房有贷且贷款未还清首付比例指标作为解释变量,进行面板回归分析。然后,本文得出结论:差别化信贷政策对房地产市场的调控效果显著,能够实现“保障刚性需求,打击投机性需求”的目标,但影响效果存在区域异质性。最后,提出完善差别化信贷政策的建议。本文创新点在于视角创新,将差别化信贷政策划分为无房无贷、无房有贷、有房无贷、有房贷未清四类首付比例指标,与房地产市场中存在的刚性需求、改善性需求、投资性需求和投机性需求的购房者相对应,验证差别化信贷政策对房地产市场影响的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Differentiated credit policy was put forward in 2007,becoming an important means of regulating the real estate market.In recent years,there are some problems in the real estate market: the real estate market in the second line city is insufficient,the price of the real estate is soaring,and the backlog of real estate stock in the three or four line cities is serious,and the potential risks are hidden,and the real estate market has entered a new normal pattern of differentiation.In order to cope with the "regional" differentiation in the real estate market,in2016,the government functional departments introduced the differential credit policy of "the most strict in history" and "the fastest in frequency" to regulate the real estate market.This paper hopes to explore the effect of differentiated credit policy on the real estate market through empirical analysis.This paper first combs the domestic and foreign research on the impact of differentiated credit policy on the real estate market,introduces the related concepts,basis and main objectives of differentiated credit policy,and analyzes the transmission mechanism of the differential credit policy through the first payment ratio channel,interest rate channel and limited purchase channel on the real estate market.Secondly,we select the monthly data of35 large and medium cities in December-2017 in October 2008,and make the real estate price and volume as the explanatory variables,further refine the differential credit policy into four indexes-the ratio of no mortgage down payment,the free first payment ratio,the ratio of unloan first payment,the loan and the loan and the loan The first payment ratio index is used as explanatory variable to conduct panel regression analysis.Then,this paper draws a conclusion that differentiated credit policy has a significant effect on the real estate market,and can achieve the goal of "ensuring rigid demand and combating speculative demand",but the effect has regional heterogeneity.Finally,we put forward suggestions for improving differentiated credit policies.The innovative point of this article lies in the perspective of innovation,and divides the differentiated credit policy into four types of first payment ratios,such as no housing,no loan,no housing loan,room free loan,and uncleared mortgage,corresponding to the real estate market’s rigid demand,improving demand,investment demand and speculative demand,and verifying differentiated credit The effect of policy on the real estate market.更多还原