【作者】 王磊；

【导师】 张光前；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 系统分析与集成， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着人们生活水平的提高,大众的健康生活理念也逐渐由“治病”转变为“防病”,理念的改变催生了疫苗产业的飞速发展。疫苗仓库的选址问题属于企业战略层面上的决策,直接影响着企业的运营。影响疫苗仓库选址的很多因素常常会发生改变,尤其是各疫苗需求地区的需求量,而对疫苗仓库选址的决策者,其分析疫苗需求地区的需求量只能通过历史数据和市场调研,但是这样的数据往往是不准确的。这种疫苗需求地区需求量的难于预估性往往会增加决策者做出最优决策的难度。本文针对疫苗仓库选址过程中存在的各项因素,根据疫苗需求地区需求量的不确定性,以最小化总成本为目标,分别对基本疫苗仓库选址问题和考虑季节因素的疫苗仓库选址问题进行研究,建立了两种疫苗仓库的鲁棒选址模型,为决策者做出疫苗仓库选址最优决策提供了一定的指导作用。本论文的主要研究内容如下:(1)基于我国《疫苗流通和预防接种管理条例》,本文对我国现阶段第一类疫苗、第二类疫苗的采购、分发、配送、监管的流程做了简要的分析。同时,通过对影响疫苗仓库选址的主要因素进行分析,总结出了本文综合考虑的成本因素,并对这些成本因素进行量化,转化成可用于构建模型的数学表达。(2)构建基本疫苗仓库选址的确定模型。在考虑了制冷成本、运输成本、建立仓库成本以及各种维护成本等基础上,同时考虑到实际情况中各疫苗需求点需求量的不确定性构建出基本疫苗仓库选址模型。分别利用“盒子”不确定集和“椭球”不确定集刻画需求量的不确定性,通过鲁棒转化,构建了两种需求不确定下的疫苗仓库鲁棒选址模型。之后通过随机生成的算例分析了两种鲁棒模型在基本疫苗仓库选址问题中的优缺点。(3)构建考虑季节因素的疫苗仓库选址的确定模型。由于疫苗运输、存储时对温度的要求较高,并且一年四季温差较大,本文将疫苗仓库选址考虑周期设为一年,每个周期按季度分为四个阶段,并且每个阶段都有是否补货的决策。除制冷成本、运输成本等之外,还综合考虑了库存成本、补货成本等因素,由此建立了考虑季节因素的疫苗仓库选址模型。并且考虑到疫苗需求点需求量的不确定性,以最小化总成本为目标,通过鲁棒转化建立“盒子”鲁棒选址模型和“椭球”鲁棒选址模型。同时验证了“盒子”鲁棒选址模型是一个混合整数线性规划模型,“椭球”鲁棒选址模型是一个含有二阶锥约束的二次规划模型,并且通过随机生成的算例分析得出了考虑季节因素的疫苗仓库选址的一些管理启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the improvement of people’s living standards,the concept of healthy life of the general public has gradually changed from “curing the disease” to “preventing disease”.Changes in the concept have given rise to the rapid development of the vaccine industry.For the rising vaccine manufacturers and vaccine wholesalers,the issue of site selection for vaccine warehouses is a strategic decision at the enterprise level,which directly affects the operation of the company.Many factors affecting the location of vaccine warehouses will often change,especially the demand for each vaccine demand area.For decision makers of vaccine warehouse location,the demand for analysis of vaccine demand areas can only be obtained through historical data and market research.When these data are often inaccurate,the difficult predictability of demand for this type of vaccine demand often increases the difficulty for decision makers to make optimal decisions.This paper aims at the problems in vaccine storage site selection,based on the uncertainty of the demand for vaccines in the region,with the goal of minimizing the total cost.Research was conducted to establish a robust site selection model for two kinds of vaccine warehouses,a single-stage vaccine warehouse location and multi-stage vaccine warehouse location,which provided a certain guiding role for decision makers to make the optimal decision for vaccine warehouse location.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the "Regulations on the Administration of Vaccine Circulation and Vaccination" of China,this article briefly analyzes the procurement,distribution,and supervision processes of the first class vaccine and the second class vaccine at the present stage in China.At the same time,by analyzing the main factors affecting the location of the vaccine warehouse,this paper summarizes the cost factors considered and quantifies these cost factors into mathematical words that can be used to build models.(2)A model for single-stage vaccine warehouse location was constructed.After considering the refrigeration cost,transportation cost,warehouse cost,and various maintenance costs,a single-stage vaccine warehouse location model was constructed by taking into account the uncertainty of demand at each vaccine demand point in the actual situation.Using the "box" uncertainty set and the "ellipsoid" uncertainty set to describe the uncertainty of demand,two robust inventory selection models based on demand uncertainty for vaccine storage are constructed.Then,through the randomly generated examples,the advantages and disadvantages of the two robust models in single-stage vaccine warehouse location were analyzed.(3)A model for multi-stage vaccine warehouse location was constructed.Due to the high temperature requirements for vaccine transportation and storage,and the large differences in temperature throughout the year,this article will set the vaccine storage site selection cycle to one year,and each cycle will be divided into four phases by quarter,and each phase.Have decisions on whether to replenish.In addition to refrigeration costs,transportation costs,etc.,factors such as inventory costs and replenishment costs were comprehensively considered,and a multi-stage vaccine warehouse location model was established.And based on the uncertainty of the demand demand of vaccine,with the goal of minimizing the total cost,a robust selection model of "box" and a model of "ellipsoid" robust location were established by robust transformation.At the same time,it is verified that the “box” robust location model is a mixed-integer linear programming model,the “ellipsoid” robust location model is a second-order cone programming model,and a multi-stage vaccine is analyzed through a randomly generated calculation example.Some management implications of warehouse location provide some suggestions for decision makers.更多还原