【作者】 刘青云；

【导师】 戴学臻；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 交通运输业是国民经济的支柱性产业,公路客运场站作为交通运输的重要基础性设施,承担着旅客对外集散、中转、换乘等多种功能,在城市内外出行中起着重要的作用。客运站选址布局是战略性规划,对城市居民出行有着长期影响,现有选址布局方法一般局限于确定性因素,但是在公路客运出行和客运站建设中存在诸多不确定性因素,如建设成本的不确定性、客流出行量的不确定性,其中出行客流的波动性正是不确定性的主要来源之一。尤其对于某些旅游城市如成都、拉萨、林芝等旅游大市,其公路客流可能会随着小长假、寒暑假等有所波动,从而对客运站布局产生影响,故本文重点研究客流出行的波动性对客运站选址布局的影响,为我国客运站站址布局提供新思路、新方法。首先,对国内外有关客运场站布局选址的研究成果进行综述,为本文提供理论基础。对道路客运场站的分类、发展趋势进了分析,并研究了与城市布局间的相互作用关系,阐述客运站规划步骤。其次,以灰色关联分析法对客运场站选址的影响因素进行分析得出核心影响因素集,之后以最小二乘支持向量机结合核心影响因素预测未来公路客流量,并计算出未来旅客发送量和分向发送量;根据预测发送量以定性和定量相结合的方法确定出客运站用地规模和布设数量,为选址布局提供依据。再次,根据选址影响因素和规模预测结果以节点重要度法得出备选站址集合,并以建设成本和出行成本最小为目标函数建立两阶段随机选址模型;其中客运站位置选取不受随机性影响,为第一阶段决策变量,客运班线分配受出行需求不确定性的影响为第二阶段。最后针对模型特点设计求解算法和求解程序。最后,基于拉萨市新建汽车客运站对提出的选址方法进行验证,得出拉萨市客运站布局情况。通过实例论证模型的可行性和合理性,为客运站场布局选址提供一定的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic and transportation is pillar industry of the national economy.As an important basic infrastructure of transportation system,passenger hub has many functions.The layout of the passenger station location is a strategic plan,which has a long-term impact on the city‘s travel.The existing site selection methods are generally limited to certain factors,but many uncertain factors exit in the development of passenger hub selection.Such as the uncertainty of construction costs and the uncertainty of passengers’ outflows,the volatility of passenger flow is one of the major sources of uncertainty.Some tourist cities such as Chengdu,Lhasa,the road passenger flow may fluctuate with small vacations,winter vacations,etc.,and thus affect the layout of the passenger hub.Therefore,this paper focuses on the fluctuation of passenger outflows,provides new ideas and new methods for the layout of passenger hub.This paper first summarizes the research results of the layout and location of passenger hub.Study the passenger hub category and the development trend,and analysis the relationship between urban layout and location,point out the planning steps.Secondly,using grey relational analysis method to analyze the influencing factors of passenger hub selection,and use the least squares support vector machine method to predict the future passenger flow,calculate the future passengers’ sending volume and direction sending;then determine the scale and number of land used for the passenger terminal to provide the basis for the site selection.According to the location influencing factors and scale forecasting results,the candidate site collection is obtained by the node importance method,and a two-stage random location model is established with the objective function of minimum construction cost and travel cost;the passenger station location is not affected by randomness.Location selection is the first-stage decision variable;the determination of passenger traffic is influenced by the uncertainty of travel demand as the second phase.Finally,the solving algorithm and solving program are designed according to the characteristics of the model.Finally,based on the proposed location method of the new bus terminal in Lhasa city,the layout of the bus terminal in Lhasa was obtained,demonstrated the feasibility of the model and provided a certain reference for layout of the hub location.更多还原