【作者】 王璇；

【导师】 马暕；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 物流工程（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着近年来我国社会发展的进步,全国快递服务企业业务量和业务收入累计的增长,给我国服务业的经济增长带了十分重要的作用。同时,随着城市化发展越来越成熟,城市经济的快速增长,城市当中各个产业的完善,工商业迅速的发展,使得快递业的发展也在迅速成长。人口在城市的聚集,使得快递业的规模也在日益增长,快递业的经济增长速率近年来是我国GDP的增长速率的2-4倍,快递业是我国经济体系当中的一匹黑马。因此,城市快递作为城市发展当中不能忽略的一部分,研究好快递业发展影响因素和城市快递生成规律,并推广至区域或者整个社会,对于现代服务业甚至是社会的发展都具有重要的意义。结构方程模型,作为一种验证性的方法,目前阶段在社会研究,更多的是应用于心理学、行为科学等领域,近年来在管理学研究中逐渐增多。结构方程模型为观察数据与基本行为或现象之间的关系提供了一种有效的检验方法,同时能够处理在分析中产生的测量误差,所以本文采用结构方程模型来对45个城市进行了实证研究,通过AMOS软件进行模型拟合。本文选取的样本为2016年全国快递生成量排名前45位的城市,选取的城市发展对城市快递的影响因素主要从经济、信息、交通、人口四个角度并选取相应的指标。最终研究表明,经济和信息对城市快递生成量的影响是直接正向作用,交通和人口对城市快递生成量的影响是间接正向作用。文章针对研究得出城市快递影响因素及城市快递生成规律,提出了城市快递发展的提升意见,例如,完善好城市的经济发展体系,城市快递生成量的统计指标是同城、异地、港澳台国际方面的业务量的加总,如果是从其他维度去统计快递生成量,需要的相关经济指标又会不同,同时所研究的大部分城市的GDP、第三产GDP等多个指标在全国的排名都处于前列,说明城市经济体系对于城市快递的生成还是具有一定的影响。完善城市交通发展水平也是刻不容缓,虽然本文中城市交通对于快递业是属于间接影响作用,但交通运输属于物流业中一个支柱性的环节,是我们无法忽视的,所以建立好城市交通体系业是重要的。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the progress of our country’s social development in recent years,the cumulative increase in business volume and business income of the national express delivery service companies have played a very important role in the economic growth of the service industry in China.With the development of urbanization more and more mature,the rapid growth of urban economy,the improvement of various industries in the city,and the rapid development of industry and commerce,the development of the express delivery industry also growing rapidly.The concentration of the population in cities has increased the same as the scale of the express delivery industry.The rate of economic growth of the express industry has been 2-4 times than the growth rate of GDP in China in recent years.The express delivery industry is a dark horse in Chinese economic system.Therefore,as a part of urban development,urban express delivery can not be neglected.Studying the factors which will have influence on the development of the express delivery industry and the law of urban express delivery,and extending it to another parts or the entire society,are of great significance to the development of modern service industry or even society.The structural equation model,as a confirmatory method,is currently being studied in society at the current stage,and is more often used in the fields of psychology and behavioral science.In recent years,it has gradually used in management research.The structural equation model provides an effective test method for the relationship between observing data and basic behaviors or phenomenons,and can also handle the measurement errors generated during the analysis.So,this paper adopts the structural equation model to conduct an empirical study on 45 cities,and models fit by AMOS software.The sample chosen in this article is the top 45 cities in the national express delivery generation in 2016.The selected urban development factors affect the city express delivery mainly from the four perspectives of economy,information,transportation and population,and select corresponding indicators.The final study shows that the impact of economy and information on the amount of urban express delivery is a direct positive effect,and the impact of transportation and population on the urban express delivery is an indirect and positive effect.The article aims at the study of the factors affecting urban express delivery and the law of urban express delivery,and proposes suggestions for the improvement of urban express delivery.For example,to improve the economic development system of the city,the statistical index of the amount of urban express generation is the addition of the volume of business in the same city,foreign land and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan.If it is from another dimensions to statistics express production,the related economic indicators will be different.At the same time,most of the cities’ GDP,third GDP and other indexes are in the forefront of the national ranking,indicating that the urban economic system has a certain impact on the generation of urban express delivery.It is also imperative to improve the level of urban transport development.Although urban transport is an indirect influence on the express delivery industry in this article,transport is a pillar of the logistics industry and cannot be ignored.Therefore,it is important to establish a good urban transport system industry.更多还原