【作者】 李可；

【导师】 李志强；

【作者基本信息】 山西大学 ， 工商管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 在当前经济增速回落的“新常态”下,防范和化解重大风险已成为关系经济发展质量和社会稳定的重要任务和严峻挑战。赢得这场攻坚战的重点在于防控金融风险,在金融与实体经济之间形成良性循环。作为我国金融产业中的新板块,融资租赁行业经过数年“井喷”式的增长,资产规模突破6万亿,已成为服务实体经济的重要力量。与发展成就相伴,行业内多数公司面临着中小企业债务违约率攀升,信用风险持续集聚的难题。对现有的风险管理技术进行调整与升级是守住金融安全底线的需要,也是抢占先机,建立竞争优势的战略要求。本文的研究重点包括信用风险评价指标集设计、指标赋权两方面,目标是构建以动产信用评价模型为核心的信用风险评价方法。在指标集设计思路上,将应收账款、存货、租赁物等动产的信用风险评估和监控作为着眼点,以规避中小企业会计报表失真风险,反映企业具备真实偿债能力的资产对信用风险的覆盖程度。在研究过程中,立足于当前经济运行和中小企业经营特点,以F租赁公司近6年来开展过融资租赁业务的50余家中小企业为研究对象,分析这些企业应收账款、存货、租赁物等动产的特点、变化规律和相互联系,提取出企业动产信用风险水平的重要影响因素和相关数据。在此基础上,借鉴资产支持融资、供应链金融、保理等业务的实践经验,设计了信用风险评价指标集。在指标筛选和确定权重时,为避免专家调查法、层次分析法等方法主观性强,准确性相对较低的不足,本文选择运用SPSS软件对指标集和企业实际违约状态进行相关性分析和有序多分类Logistic回归分析。根据分析结果,筛选出与信用风险显著相关的4大类13个评价指标并赋权,以此为核心构建了中小企业动产信用评价模型和相应的评价方法。本文还通过应用动产信用风险评价方法对F租赁公司存量客户CK公司连续3年的经营情况进行分析和信用评价,从实证分析角度验证了该方法的实用性。总的来看,利用动产信用风险评价方法,可以为中小企业融资租赁项目审批决策提供较为准确、方便横向比较的量化评价结果,从而提高决策效率,降低信用风险水平。同时,在租后管理过程中运用该方法,也能提高对中小企业信用风险状况进行监控的及时性和可操作性,在风险识别和应对中,掌握先机,保持主动。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the “new normal” in which the current economic growth rate has dropped,the prevention and mitigation of major risks have become important tasks and severe challenges concerning the quality of economic development and social stability.The key to fighting this tough battle is to prevent and control financial risks,and to form a virtuous circle of finance and the real economy.For the financial leasing industry,after several years of "blowout" growth,the scale of assets has exceeded 6 trillion yuan,and it has become an important force in serving the real economy.Accompanied by development achievements,most companies in the industry are also faced with the problem of rising debt default rates of SMEs and continuous accumulation of credit risk.The adjustment and upgrading of existing risk management techniques is a need to hold on to the bottom line of financial security,and it is also a strategic requirement to seize opportunities and establish competitive advantages.The research focus of this article includes the design of credit evaluation indicators and the empowerment of indicators.The goal is to build a credit evaluation method based on the movable credit evaluation model.In the aspect of the design of indicator set,this article focuses on credit risk assessment and monitoring of movable assets such as accounts receivable,inventory,and leased assets.The purpose is to avoid the risk of SME accounting statements being distorted,and to reflect the degree of coverage of credit risk by real solvency assets.In the process of research,based on the current economic status and the characteristics of SMEs,the research object is about 50 SMEs that F lease companies have carried out in the past six years.By analyzing the characteristics,changing rules and mutual relations of the company’s movable property,the important influencing factors and relevant data of the movable credit level are extracted.On the basis of this,we learn from the practical experience of asset based finance,supply chain finance and factoring,then designed a set of movable asset credit evaluation indicators.When selecting indicators and determining weights,in order to avoid the subjectivity and inaccuracy of the methods of expert survey and AHP,this paper chooses to use SPSS software to analyze the correlation between the indicator set and the actual default status of the company by ordered multi-classification logistic regression analysis model.According to the results of the analysis,the four categories of 13 evaluation indicators that are significantly related to credit risk are selected and empowered.As a result,a model for the evaluation of movable credit in SMEs and corresponding evaluation methods are constructed.In the empirical analysis section,this paper applies the method of movables credit evaluation for verification.The verification target is the customer CK company of the F lease company.Through the analysis and credit evaluation of CK company’s operating conditions for three years,the practicality of the method is verified.In general,the use of movable assets credit evaluation method can provide relatively accurate and convenient quantitative comparison results for the decision-making of financial leasing projects for SMEs,thereby improving the efficiency of decision-making and reducing the level of credit risk.At the same time,applying this method in the post-lease management process can also improve the timeliness and operability of monitoring the credit conditions of SMEs.This can help leasing companies to take the initiative and remain proactive in identifying and handling credit risk.更多还原