【作者】 陈诚；

【导师】 罗翔；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 区域经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 尽管全球减贫工作已取得了巨大的进展,数百万的穷人仍然生活贫困、忍受饥饿,无法获取基本服务。世界贫困问题依然严峻。与此同时,中国减贫依然任重道远。此外,在我们承认中国贫困人口不断减少这一事实的同时,另一隐含着的问题却也渐渐凸显,也就是随着贫困人口的不断减少,剩余贫困人口的减贫变得越来越困难。基于可获取的数据,运用FGT贫困指数测度了全国层面及东中西6省的贫困状况,结果表明农村贫困状况存在较大的省际差异,而且FGT指数与官方公布的贫困状况存在较大差异。接着,考察了我国农村贫困的特征,总的来说,我国扶贫取得重大进展,但贫困人口规模依然庞大,且贫困人口主要分布在西部地区。除了贫困人口的区域分布差异,还存在较大的群体差异。由于我国90%以上的贫困人口分布在农村地区,农业生产的基础性和脆弱性决定了农村的发展和农民的增收不得不得依赖政府的重视与支持,而国家财政用于农林水事物的支出是国家对农村、农业的主要财政支持,农村的发展也离不开国家财政用于教育、社会保障与就业、医疗卫生与计划生育支出。近三四十年来,我国公共支出与GDP几乎保持同样的年均增长率,表明我国公共支出总量具有顺周期性。这种周期性意味着在经济增速放缓的新常态下,公共支出的总量势必会受到影响,进而减贫进程会受到影响。而对公共支出的结构进行考察发现,2000年以来国家财政用于教育、社会保障与就业、医疗卫生与计划生育及农林水事物的支出均有所增加。公共支出的结构调整同样会产生深远的影响。接着,本文分析了公共支出减贫作用机理并进行实证考察。首先,从财政学、福利经济学以及发展经济学阐述公共支出减贫的理论基础,然后对教育、社会保障、医疗卫生以及农林水事务支出的减贫机理进行梳理与预判。在此基础上,构建计量模型,运用全国及东中西6省的数据验证前述理论预判。实证结果表明,公共支出总量不管是在全国层面还是省级层面对农村贫困均具有缓解作用;而教育、社会保障、医疗卫生及农林水事务支出在不同层面上对农村贫困的效应则不稳定甚至不显著。本文尝试分析了不稳定或不显著的原因。最后,基于定性和定量分析的结果,对本文的内容与研究发现做一个总结,并给出一点政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Despite the tremendous progress made in global poverty reduction,millions of poor people still live in poverty,endure hunger and have no access to basic services.The problem of world poverty remains grim.At the same time,as the most populous country in the world,China’ s efforts to reduce poverty are deeply related to the overall results of poverty reduction in the world.As a large developing country with a large agricultural population,the rapid decline of China’s rural poverty population has made important contributions to reducing the world’s poverty population.In addition,while we recognize the fact that the number of poor people in China is continuously decreasing,another implied problem has gradually become evident.That is,as the poverty population continues to shrink,it becomes more and more difficult for the remaining poor to get rid of poverty.In the past 30 or 40 years,with the rapid development of economy,fiscal expenditure has increased year by year,and the structure of fiscal expenditure has also been constantly adjusted.Since more than 90%of the poor population in China is located in rural areas,the basic and fragile nature of agricultural production determines that the development of rural areas and the increase of farmers’ income must rely on the government’s attention and support.In rural areas,the main financial support for agriculture,and the use of national finance for education,social security and employment,and health care also play a role in alleviating rural poverty.This article first introduced the current situation of rural poverty in China.The PGT poverty index was used to measure poverty at the national level and 6 provinces in the east,central,and west.The results showed that there were large provincial differences in rural poverty status,and there was a big difference between the FGT index and the official poverty status.Then,we examined the characteristics of rural poverty in China.Overall,China’s poverty alleviation has made significant progress.However,the scale of the impoverished population is still huge,while the poverty population is mainly distributed in the western region.In addition to the differences in the regional distribution of the poor,there are also large group differences.Then it analyzes the cyclical fluctuation and structural adjustment of public expenditure in China.Since the reform and opening up,China’s public expenditure and GDP have almost maintained the same average annual growth rate.Further empirical analysis shows that China’s total public expenditure is pro-cyclical.The inspection of the structure of public expenditure found that since 2000,the state’s expenditure on education,social security and employment,medical care and family planning,and agriculture,forestry and water affairs have all increased.Next,this paper analyzes the mechanism of public expenditure and makes an empirical investigation.First,it elaborates the theoretical basis of public expenditure poverty reduction from the aspects of public finance,welfare economics,and development economics,and then sorts out and predicts poverty reduction mechanisms in education,social security,medical and health,and agriculture affairs expenditures.On this basis,an econometric model was constructed,and the aforementioned theoretical predictions were verified using data from the six provinces of the country.The empirical results show that the total amount of public expenditure has a mitigation effect on rural poverty regardless of whether it is at the national level or the provincial level;while the effects of education,social security,medical and health,and agriculture affairs expenditures on rural poverty are not stable or insignificant at different levels.This article attempts to analyze the causes.Finally,based on the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis,a summary of the contents of this article and research findings is made,and the paper try to give a little policy advice.更多还原