【作者】 尹恒；

【导师】 陈立中；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 产业经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,为了抑制住房价格的快速增长,部分热点城市推出了一系列的限购政策。统计数据发现,房地产市场限购政策实施后,城市的结婚、离婚和复婚人数出现了不同程度的波动。那么,房地产限购对城市家庭婚姻关系到底产生了怎样的影响?这种影响是否存在区域差异性?差异的来源又是什么?基于此,本文以贝克尔的婚姻经济学理论为基础,通过定性、定量的研究方法,以限购政策引起的收入冲击为切入点,实证研究了房地产限购政策对我国东、中、西地区城市家庭婚姻关系的影响,试图回答上述问题。贝克尔认为,婚姻匹配质量和外在收入冲击是导致家庭离婚的重要原因。为此,本文将规避住房限购政策作为家庭婚姻关系变化的外生收入冲击,并采用双重差分的方法检验住房限购政策对不同城市家庭婚姻关系造成的差异性影响,为未来进一步完善房地产调控政策提供参考。具体地,本文首先梳理了国内外有关收入变化、婚姻匹配质量与婚姻关系变动的研究文献,并进行了简单的评述;接着,文章构建了一个描述婚姻匹配质量与外在收入冲击的理论模型。在实证部分,文章利用了 2005—2013年92个限购城市(46个、处理组)与非限购城市(46个、控制组)的面板数据,经安慰剂检验共同趋势后,利用双重差分模型检验了房地产限购政策对婚姻关系影响的实证证据。最后,文章提出了相关政策建议。文章实证发现:(1)从家庭所在的城市来看,东部地区城市家庭婚姻关系受限购政策的影响最大,中部次之,而西部最小。(2)家庭规模解释了上述区域差异的主要部分。平均地,家庭规模越大,限购政策对家庭婚姻关系的影响越小;反之,则相反。文章的主要结论有:住房限购政策的实施,导致东部城市家庭为购房而选择离婚的人数显著增加765对,离婚率提高了 9.97%;导致中部城市家庭为购房而离婚的人数增加483对,离婚率增加了 3.31%;而住房限购政策对西部城市家庭婚姻关系的影响并不显著。进一步的实证研究发现,家庭平均规模的差异可以解释东部地区城市家庭为购房而选择离婚的人数显著高于中、西部地区的部分原因。文章研究存在的不足之处主要有,一是仅仅描述了家庭婚姻关系中离婚这一行为,未能研究诸如延迟结婚等行为;二是未能厘清不同城市限购政策程度对婚姻关系的影响。所有这些,将是未来研究的重要方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,in order to curb the rapid growth of housing prices,some cities have introduced a series of purchase restriction policies.Statistics show that after the implementation of the real estate market restriction policy,the number of married,divorced and remarried people in the city has changed to varying degrees.Then,what impact does real estate purchase have on urban family marital relations?Does this effect have regional differences?What is the source of the difference?Based on this,this article based on Becker’s Marriage Economics Theory,through qualitative and quantitative research methods,with the income shock caused by the purchase restriction policy as an entry point,empirically studied the real estate purchase restriction policy for urban households in the eastern,central and western regions of China.The influence of marital relations tries to answer the above questions.Becker believes that the quality of marriage matches and the impact of external income are important causes of family divorce.For this reason,this article will circumvent the home purchase restriction policy as an exogenous income impact on the change of family marriage relationship,and use the double difference method to test the differential effect of housing restriction policies on the marital relations of different urban families,and provide the real estate control policies for the future improvement.reference.Specifically,this article first reviews the research literature on changes in income,marital match quality and marital relations at home and abroad,and makes simple comments;then,the article constructs a theoretical model that describes the match quality of marriage and the impact of external income.In the empirical part,the article used panel data from 92 cities(46 control groups)and non-restricted cities(46 control groups)from 2005 to 2013.After the common trend of placebo test,the test was performed using the double difference model.The empirical evidence of the influence of real estate purchase restriction policy on marital relations.Finally,the article proposes relevant policy recommendations.The empirical findings of the article are:(1)From the perspective of the family’s city,the policy of restricted purchase of marital relations in urban areas in the eastern region has the greatest impact,followed by the middle,and the smallest in the west.(2)Family size explains the main part of the above regional differences.On average,the larger the family size,the smaller the influence of the purchase restriction policy on family marital relations;on the contrary,the opposite is true.The main conclusions of the article are:The implementation of the housing restriction policy led to an increase of 765 pairs of divorce households in eastern urban households,and the divorce rate increased by 9.97%;the number of divorce families in central urban households increased by 483,and the number of divorces increased.The rate has increased by 3.31%;while the housing restriction policy has no significant effect on the marital relations of western urban families.Further empirical studies have found that the difference in the average household size is an important reason why the number of divorces for urban families in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.The main shortcomings of the article research are:First,it only describes the behavior of divorce in family-marriage relations,and fails to study such acts as delaying marriage;second,it fails to clarify the influence of different levels of city-level purchase policy on-marital relations.All of these will be important aspects of future research.更多还原