我国耕地面积变化的影响因素分析及预测研究

【作者】 杨勇；

【导师】 秦秋红；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 耕地作为粮食生产的重要载体,是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础。我国作为人口大国,呈现出人多地少的现状,尤其是改革开放以来,随着经济的快速发展,城镇化、工业化步伐的加快,建设用地面积不断扩张,大量占用优质良田;加之耕地资源的不合理利用及土地污染,耕地质量也受到了威胁,从而导致耕地生产力及农产品质量降低。在全面协调可持续发展及全国粮食安全备受关注的背景下,考虑到耕地已成为我国社会、经济发展的重要约束性稀缺资源,研究和掌握我国耕地面积变化,分析耕地利用变化驱动因子,并了解未来我国耕地面积变化趋势,有利于耕地资源的合理利用,提高耕地利用效率,保障粮食安全,维护经济长期稳定发展,实现耕地资源的可持续利用。本文通过查阅《中国统计年鉴》、《中国国土资源公报》等资料,应用定性和定量相结合的方法,深入研究了我国耕地利用状况,探寻了我国耕地面积变化的主要驱动因素及规律,并提出针对性的政策建议。研究中,首先对我国1949-2016年耕地利用现状进行了定性分析,并分析了我国耕地利用程度及耕地利用的区域差异;其次,运用因子分析法,提取了我国耕地利用变化驱动因子的主成分,计算出影响耕地利用变化驱动力的综合得分,在此基础上,建立多元回归模型,分析各驱动因子对耕地利用变化的影响情况;之后,为了预测我国耕地利用未来的变化趋势,本文还通过建立ARIMA模型,对我国2017-2026年10年内的耕地面积进行了预测。通过上述方法的研究,本文得出以下结论:(1)新中国成立以来,我国耕地面积经历了四个阶段:持续增加阶段(1949-1957),持续减少阶段(1958-1995),波动减少阶段(1996-2008),较平稳阶段(2009-2016);(2)我国耕地变化区域特征明显且差异显著,华中、华北、华东等地区耕地面积面积相对变化率较大,说明我国经济发展水平较高区域,耕地利用变化率相对较大,反之则较小;(3)总人口、城镇化率、经济发展及农业科技投入是影响我国耕地利用变化的主要因素,而自然灾害并非影响我国耕地利用变化的主要因素;(4)对我国2017-2026年耕地面积预测检验结果显示,在未来的一段时间内,我国耕地面积仍呈下降趋势,但下降速率逐渐放缓。最后,在得出我国耕地利用现状、耕地利用变化驱动力及未来耕地利用变化趋势的基础上,结合我国实际情况,提出耕地利用、耕地保护的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important carrier of grain production,cultivated land is an important material basis for human survival and development.As a large population,our country presents the situation of a large population and less land.Especially since the reform and opening up,with the rapid development of the economy,the accelerated pace of urbanization and industrialization,the area of construction land has been expanding,and a large amount of high quality farmland is occupied.In addition,the unreasonable utilization of cultivated land resources and land pollution,the quality of cultivated land is also threatened,and the productivity and quality of agricultural products are also reduced.In the context of comprehensive and coordinated sustainable development and the attention of national food security,considering that cultivated land has become an important scarce resource for social and economic development in China,it is beneficial that to study and master the change of cultivated land area,analyze the driving factors of cultivated land use change,and understand the change trend of cultivated land area in our country.It is beneficial to the rational utilization of cultivated land resources,to improve the utilization efficiency of cultivated land,to ensure the security of grain,to maintain the long-term and stable development of the economy and to realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources.By consulting the Statistical yearbook of china and Nationtal Land Resources Bulletin of China,this paper makes an in-depth analysis on the utilization of cultivated land in China by means of qualitative and quantitative methods,and explores the main driving factors and laws of the change of cultivated land in China,and then puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions.In the study,wefirst made a qualitative analysis of the status quo of cultivated land utilization in China in the past 1949-2016 years,and analyzed the regional difference of cultivated land utilization and cultivated land utilization in China.Secondly,the factor analysis method is used to analyze the main components of the driving factors of cultivated land use change in China,and to sum up the comprehensive score that affects the driving force of cultivated land use change.On this basis,multiple regression models are established to analyze the impact of driving factors on cultivated land use change.After that,in order to accurately judge the changing trend of the use of cultivated land in China,this paper also predicts the area of cultivated land within 2017-2026 years and 10 years in China through the establishment of ARIMA model.Through the above research methods,we draw the following conclusions:(1)Since the founding of new China,the area of cultivated land in China has gone through four stages:the continuous increase stage(1949-1957),the continuous reduction stage(1958-1995),the stage of fluctuation reduction(1996-2008),and the more stable stage(2009-2016);(2)The regional characteristics of cultivated land change in China are obvious and distinct,the relative change rate of cultivated land area in Central China,North China and East China is larger,which indicates that China’s economic development level is high,the change rate of cultivated land is relatively large,and the opposite is smaller;(3)Total population,urbanization rate,economic development and investment in agricultural science and technology are the main factors that affect the change of cultivated land use in China,and natural disasters are not the main factors that affect the change of cultivated land use in China;(4)In the past 2017-2026 years,the results of China’s cultivated area forecast test show that in the next period of time,the area of cultivated land in China is still declining,but its decline gradually slows down.Finally,on the basis of the current situation of cultivated land use,the driving force of cultivated land use change and the trend of the change of cultivated land in the future,the countermeasures and suggestions for the utilization and protection of cultivated land are put forward in the light of the actual situation in China.更多还原