【作者】 陈宏；

【导师】 黄永明；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 区域经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国产业结构发展不断优化,第三产业比重持续提升,这与霍夫曼经验法则相吻合,也符合其他成熟的产业结构升级的理论。改革开放之初,国内经济百废待兴,资本、技术等经济发展要素奇缺,而劳动力要素由于人口激增十分丰富,这与世界上主要的发达国家形成鲜明的对比,从而拥有比较强的比较优势,为外商直接投资进入中国提供了经济条件。外商直接投资的进入与中国经济的蓬勃发展密切相关,在初期,不仅带来了国内稀缺的资本要素、也带了发达国家淘汰但在国内依旧是领先的技术要素、管理要素等,为中国培训了大量的熟练工人。本文正是基于这些考虑开始了外商直接投资(FDI)对中国产业升级的影响机制研究。关于外商直接投资的产业升级效应,一直众说纷纭,但不可否认的是外商直接投资确实是与中国经济发展,产业兴起密切相关的。但随着经济结构调整,经济逐渐从高速增长阶段转向高质量增长阶段,国外淘汰的技术水平已经满足不了中国产业升级需求。无论是对工人技术水平还是管理经验水平的提升,外商直接投资对中国产业升级的影响似乎越来越弱。本文总结了国内外学者关于FDI促进产业升级的理论成果,将其分为溢出效应和低端锁定效应,在Cobb-Douglas函数基础上构建了外商直接投资(FDI)影响产业升级的理论模型,提出了 FDI的行业异质性影响技术溢出的研究假设。采用2003-2014年的中国投入产出数据,采用计算出的制造业服务化指标来代表产业升级指标,进而使用FGLS模型对产业升级进行了实证研究,最后使用全要素生产率指标进行了稳健性检验,结果表明制造业FDI和生产性服务业FDI对产业升级有着不同的作用机制。金融危机之前,制造业FDI对产业升级持正向促进作用,但生产性服务业FDI对产业升级的方向不是很明确,金融危机之后,制造业FDI对产业升级的促进效应会加强,但生产性服务业FDI对产业升级的促进效应会减弱或者加大低端锁定效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the 40th anniversary of the reform and opening-up,China’ s industrial structure has been optimized continuously,and the heavy industry accounts has been continuous improving,which is consistent with the research results of hofmann,and also accords with other mature industrial structure upgrading theories.At the begin-ing of reform and opening up,the domestic economy was weak,and the elements of industrial development,such as capital and technology,were extremely scarce,while the labor factor was very rich because of the surge in population.This contrasted shar-ply with the major developed countries in the world.Thus there were comparative ad-vantage,which provided the economic condition for the foreign direct investment(FDI)to enter China.The entry of FDI is closely related to the vigorous development of the Chinese economy.In the initial period,it not only brought the capital elements in China,but also brought out the technological factors and management elements that developed countries have eliminated but are still leading in China.In the same time,a large number of skilled workers have been trained for China.Based on these considerations,this paper starts the research of FDI on China’s industrial upgrading.There are different opinions about the industrial upgrading effect of FDI,but it is undeniable that FDI is closely related to the development of Chinese economy and the rise of industry.However,with the adjustment of the economic stru-cture,the economy is gradually changing from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality growth.The level of technology eliminated from abroad can no longer meet the needs of China’s industrial upgrading.FDI seems to have a weaker and weaker impact on China’s industrial upgrading both in terms of workers’ skills and management experience.This paper summarizes the theoretical achievements of scholars at home and abroad in promoting industrial upgrading,divides them into spi-llover effects and inhibitory effects,and constructs a theoretical model of FDI influe-ncing industrial upgrading based on Cobb-Douglas function,and puts forward the res-earch hypothesis that the industry heterogeneity of FDI can influence industry upgra-ding.Based on the input-output data of China from 2003 to 2014,this paper calculates the service index of manufacturing industry to measure the index of industryial upgra-ding,and then makes an empirical study on industrial upgrading by using FGLS model.Finally,the robustness test is carried out using the total factor productivity index.The results show that manufacturing FDI and producer service FDI have different mechanisms for industrial upgrading.Before the financial crisis,FDI of man-ufacturing industry has always maintained a positive role in promoting industrial upg-rading,but the direction of FDI in producer services is not very clear.After the finan-cial crisis,the promotion effect of manufacturing FDI on industrial upgrading will be strengthened.However,the promotion effect of producer services on industrial upgr-ading will weaken or increase the low-end locking effect.更多还原