【作者】 李亮；

【导师】 候麟科；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 众筹是互联网时代的新型项目融资业态,目前主流融资方式存在要求严格、成本高的问题,而众筹是对目前主流融资筹资方式的有力补充。众筹操纵是指发起人为达到一定目的控制项目融资进度的行为,随着大量众筹项目的上线,众筹涉嫌操纵的负面消息层出不穷,公众对众筹行为可信度产生质疑。本文立足中国众筹情况,研究众筹操纵是否存在以及众筹操纵项目的影响因素,并对众筹操纵对众筹项目产生的后果进行解读。研究对中国推进众筹行业发展,推进相关法律法规制定都有一定的理论与实践意义。本文通过爬虫程序获取2017年3月到2017年5月间京东众筹平台众筹项目共计200多万条记录数据,最终经过筛选得到近千个众筹项目完整周期数据。第一,通过对数据进行分析,发现数据呈现众筹进度在完成值附近不连续、募集进度分布不连续、募集进度出现回撤等异常现象确认了操纵行为的存在,并将数据体现出的四类异常募集情况定义为四类操纵。第二,确认众筹操纵存在后,本文首先通过实证研究,使用Logit模型分析了操纵的影响因素,通过分析众筹操纵的影响因素,检验盈利受益性动机强弱对众筹操纵行为的影响,得到结论盈利收益目的越强的公司项目越容易出现操纵。第三,本文分析四种众筹操纵对众筹后果的影响,通过检验众筹操纵与支持度以及关注热度的关系,针对每种众筹不同的后果进行合理分析。本文进一步根据众筹项目的类型,将众筹项目分为盈利性以及非盈利性两种,通过实证发现盈利性项目适用前面的后果分析模型,但非盈利性项目却不显著,得出结论盈利性项目下操纵的众筹后果,非盈利性项目的不显著结果也呼应了影响因素中盈利受益性为操纵影响动机的结论。根据结论,建议相关平台与监管部门重点监管盈利性项目,特别是高盈利性动机公司项目。不同众筹操纵后果不完全相同,第一类操纵对众筹效果破坏最严重,第二、第三类有利有弊,第四类操纵效果隐蔽不显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 The raise is a new type of project financing mode in the Internet age,the current existing other financing way puts forward high demands on enterprise scale,strength,and the raise is a powerful complement to the current mainstream financing way.Raise control refers to all the sponsors to control the progress of the project financing behavior,as the project launch,raise the raise suspicion of manipulation of negative news emerge in endlessly,the public credibility of the raise behavior question.In this paper,we study the existence of fixing the raise and the control characteristics of the project,raise raise project and the raise of manipulation of the consequences,for our country to promote the industry development,raise push related laws and regulations formulation has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the crawlers get between March 2017 to May 2017,jingdong the raised platform for the project a total of more than 2 million records data,raise eventually find nearly thousand filtered the raise project complete cycle data.Through the analysis of data,found that the data presented the progress at the completion of the threshold value in attachment discontinuous,raise raise progress distribution is discontinuous,raise schedule a retracement of anomalies confirmed the existence of manipulation,and the data reflects the four types of abnormal recruitment is defined as four types of manipulation.After confirm the raise manipulation exist,this article first through the empirical study,using Logit model analyzes the factors that influence the manipulation of raise manipulation by analyzing the influence factors,inspection benefit profit motive intensity influence to the raise of manipulation,conclude the earnings yield purpose company project,the more the more vulnerable to manipulation.Next,this paper analyzes four kinds of the manipulation of the raise raise consequences,by examining the raise manipulation and support,and the relationship between the average amount for each the raise different consequences for reasonable analysis.In this paper,based on the further raise the type of project,the raise project can be divided into for-profit and nonprofit two kinds,through analysis it is found that the consequences of in front of the non-profit project for model,but not significant,the non-profit project concluded a for manipulating the raise consequences,non-profit project was not significant echoes the results of the influence factors of the conclusion of the impact to manipulate earnings benefit motives.The results show that the fourth type of manipulation has no significant effect,and the first three types of manipulation have significant influence on the support degree and the average fundraising amount,which is consistent with the conjecture.According to the conclusion,it is suggested that relevant platforms and regulators should focus on the supervision of profitable projects,especially the high-profit motive company project.The crowdfunding manipulation will increase the support of crowdfunding projects,but the increase of such support is irrational.It will raise the risk of individual investors and adversely affect the long-term development of the industry.更多还原