【作者】 高超；

【导师】 谢锐；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着工业化与城市化进程的全面推进,人口的迅速扩张以及各地区经济的快速发展对水资源的需求越来越大,对中国水环境造成的压力也越来越大,水资源短缺问题已然制约了中国经济社会的进一步发展。近年来,中国用水量具有明显的上升趋势,生产部门用水量在中国用水总量中的比重居高不下,用水结构与区域经济发展之间不匹配问题较为突出。为缓解中国水资源问题,国家强调全面推进水资源节约型社会建设,加强实施最严格的水资源管理制度。深入研究中国生产用水量变化以及区域生产用水量差异的影响因素,将为中国各区域完成用水量总量控制目标以及贯彻节水先行新时期水利工作方针提供重要依据。基于2002年、2012年中国省际间水资源-经济投入产出表,采用考虑了最终需求区域结构的结构分解分析(SDA)方法研究2002-2012年期间中国生产用水量变化的驱动因素。基于2012年中国31个省市的单区域的投入产出表,运用空间结构分解分析(S-SDA)方法识别了2012年各区域间生产用水量差异的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2002-2012年期间在经济增长与技术水平变化的共同作用下,中国生产用水量总体呈上升态势。中国生产用水量主要集中于新疆、江苏及广东等省份,主要的生产用水部门有农林牧渔业、燃气及水的生产与供应业以及电力、热力的生产和供应业等。(2)经济规模效应主导着中国生产用水量的增加,而技术效应则是抑制中国生产用水量增长的最重要因素。经济规模各影响因素效应中,最终需求部门结构与分配结构效应对中国生产用水量增长具有明显的抑制作用。消费水平与人口规模效应是拉动中国生产用水量增长的关键因素。区域经济格局变动总体不利于中国生产用水量的减少。(3)2012年中国各省的生产用水量与人口及GDP规模不匹配,大多数省份生产用水量份额与总产出份额之间存在很大差异。各省生产用水量的大小不仅取决于经济规模,还取决于各地区特征。新疆、江苏、广东以及黑龙江等12个省份生产用水量大于全国平均。其中,京津地区与其他所有地区平均生产用水量差异最大,且其平均生产用水量小于其他所有地区的平均生产用水量。(4)技术效应与最终需求效应是各省与全国平均生产用水量差异以及地区间平均生产用水量差异的主要因素。在最终需求各影响因素中,人口规模与消费水平效应各地区与京津地区平均生产用水量差异的影响最大,其次是最终需求部门结构效应。人口规模或消费水平效应大小与人口规模或消费水平差异大小成正比。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the overall advancement of industrialization and urbanization,the rapid population expansion and regional economic development have increased the demand for water resources.The pressure on China’s water environment has been prominent,which has become the bottleneck restricting China’s economic and social development.In recent years,China’s water use has shown a clear upward trend,with a high proportion of water used by the production sector in China’s total water use.In addition,water use structure has been also compatible with regional economic development.In order to alleviate the problem of water resources in China,the government has promoted to construct a water-saving society and implemented the most stringent system for managing water resources.It is of great practical significance to thoroughly study the factors that influence the changes in China’s production water use and differences of production water use between regions.It will provide an important basis for all regions in China to accomplish the goal of total water use control,and to implement water conservation policies in the new era.At first,based on the inter-provincial water resource-economic input-output tables for 2002 and 2012,structural decomposition analysis(SDA)method considering the regional structure of final demand are used to study the influencing factors of the changes in production water use in China during the period of 2002-2012.And then based on the single-regional input-output table for 31 provinces and cities in China in 2012,spatial-structural decomposition analysis(S-SDA)method are used to identify the differences in production water use between regions.The results show that:(1)Under the combined effect of economic growth and technology progress during the period of 2002-2012,China’s production water use has generally risen.China’s production water use is mainly distributed in Xinjiang,Jiangsu,and Guangdong provinces,and the main production water use sectors are agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,gas and water production and supply,and production and distribution of electricity and heat sectors.(2)The effect of economic scale dominates the increase in production water use,while the technical effect is the most important inhibitory factor.Among factors influencing the economic scale,the effects of sectoral structure and distribution structure of the final demand have a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of production water use in China.The consumption level and the population scale effects are the key factors that drive the increase of production water use in China.The overall change in regional economic structure is not conducive to the reduction of production water use in China.(3)In 2012,the production water use of each province in China does not match the size of the population and GDP.There is a big difference between the share of production water use and the total output share in most provinces.The amount of production water used in each province depends not only on the size of the economy but also on the characteristics of each region.In 12 provinces such as Xinjiang,Jiangsu,Guangdong,and Heilongjiang,the amounts of production water use are higher than the national average level.Among them,the difference in average amount of production water use between the Beijing-Tianjin region and all other regions is largest.And the average amount of production water use in the Beijing-Tianjin region is less than that in all other regions.(4)The technical effect and the final demand effect are the main factors for the difference of production water use between provinces and the national average level,and the average production water use between regions.Among factors influencing the economic scale,the effects of population size and consumption level on the difference in average amount of production water use between Beijing-Tianjin region and other all regions are the greatest,followed by the effect of final demand sectoral structure.The effect of population size or consumption level is proportional to the difference in population size or consumption level.更多还原