【作者】 张磊；

【导师】 赵杨；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 区域经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 1998年中国开始了住房供给货币化、市场化的改革。改革后,中国房地产市场发展迅速,一举成为了国民经济的支柱产业,并影响着中国的经济增长的速度和质量。一方面,房地产业具有关联性强的特点,房价的变动会对物流、建材、金融等相关行业产生影响,从而影响经济增长;另一方面,房价的变动通过房价的财富效应、托宾Q效应和金融加速器效应影响消费者的消费行为和地产开发企业的投资行为,从而对总消费和总投资产生影响,进一步影响经济增长。因此,房价对经济增长的影响已成为社会各界和学术界研究的重要课题。当前关于房价对经济增长影响的研究主要基于宏观层面,而对于中国而言,近年来房地产市场呈现区域分化特征,各省市之间、城市之间的经济水平、发展速度都不尽相同;房价变动对经济增长的影响会因区域间经济发展水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异。因此,研究房价对经济的非线性影响,对地方政府因地制宜的制定相关房地产政策有着重要的参考意义。本文基于已有文献研究及相关理论,首先对中国及区域房地产市场的发展和房价的演变进行了回顾,并结合中国宏观及区域经济增长情况,分析了房价变动对经济增长的影响路径,得到“房价变动会对经济增长产生影响,并且这种影响是非线性的”假设。在此基础上,本文采用中国224个城市2003至2015年的面板数据,基于面板门限模型,实证检验了房价变动对经济增长的影响,并进一步对224个城市2003至2015年所处的发展阶段进行分析,同时对224个城市2003、2009、2015年所处发展阶段及所属省份的情况进行的统计和分析,得到的结论为:房价变动对经济增长有着明显的三门槛效应,三个门槛值将经济发展水平划分成了四个区制;并且第一、第二、第三、第四区制房价变动对经济增长的影响系数是递增的,即房价变动对经济增长的影响会随经济发展水平的提高而增大。最后,对处于不同发展区制中的城市,根据房价变动对经济增长在各区制的影响程度不同,因地制宜地提出房地产市场调控政策建议。对于经济发展水平处于第四区制的城市,应加强土地管理,强化金融监管,规范房地产开发企业行为,打击房地产的投机性行为,以防止房地产价格泡沫的出现。对于经济发展水平处于第一、第二、第三区制的城市,应制定鼓励性的房地产行业政策,明确房地产行业在本市产业中的定位,做好房地产产业的发展规划,发挥房地产对经济增长的带动作用;同时政府还应通过行政管理等手段规范房地产开发商行为,调节房地产市场,从而保障当地经济健康、稳定增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 1998,China began to reform the housing supply monetization and marketization.After the reform,the real estate market in China developed rapidly,becoming the pillar industry of the national economy at one stroke and affecting the speed and quality of China’s economic growth.On the one hand,real estate is also characterized by strong correlation.The change in housing prices will affect the logistics,building materials,and financial related frontier industries,which will affect economic growth.On the other hand,the change in house prices will affect the wealth effect of housing prices.Tobin’s Q effect and financial accelerator effect influence consumers’ consumer behaviors and investment behaviors of real estate development companies,thereby affecting total consumption and total investment,and further affecting economic growth.Therefore,the impact of housing prices on economic growth has become an important issue for all sectors of society and academia.The current research on the impact of housing prices on economic growth is mainly based on the macro level.For China,the real estate market has experienced regional differentiation in recent years.The economic level and development speed among different provinces and cities and cities are not the same;house prices have changed.The impact on economic growth will show obvious regional differences due to the different levels of regional economic development.Therefore,the study of the non-linear effects of housing prices on the economy has important reference significance for the local government to develop relevant real estate policies according to local conditions.Based on the utility theory,this paper analyzes the impact of house price changes on the economic behavior of residents and real estate developers,and concludes that “the effect of house price changes will have an impact on economic growth,and this effect is a nonlinear” proposition.Based on this,the paper uses panel data from 224 cities in China in 2003-2015,based on the panel threshold model,empirically analyzes the impact of house price changes on economic growth,and further carries out the development stage of 224 cities from 2003 to 2015.At the same time,further statistical analysis was conducted on the development stages of the 224 cities in 2003,2009,and 2015 and the provinces they belonged to.The conclusion is: The price changes have a significant three-fold effect on economic growth,with three thresholds.The level of economic development is divided into four stages.The coefficient of influence of changes in house prices in the first,second,third and fourth stages on economic growth is increased in the above order,that is,the effect of house price changes on economic growth will follow economic development.The level increases and gets bigger.Finally,for cities in different stages of development,based on the impact of changes in house prices on the economic growth in various stages of different levels,according to local conditions put forward real estate market regulation and control policy recommendations.For cities whose economic development level is in the fourth stage,we should strengthen land management,strengthen financial supervision,standardize the behavior of real estate development companies,and crack down on speculative behavior of real estate to prevent the emergence of real estate price bubbles.For cities with economic development at the first,second,and third stages,an encouraging real estate industry policy should be formulated to clarify the orientation of the real estate industry in this city’s industry,to do a good job in the development planning of the real estate industry,and to give play to real estate’s economic growth.The government should also regulate the behavior of real estate developers through administrative measures and regulate the real estate market so as to ensure the healthy and stable growth of the local economy.更多还原