【作者】 张翔；

【导师】 王远；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 环境科学（学术硕士）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 能源是维持人类社会和经济发展的重要物质基础之一,它既是产业生产所必须的物质保障,也是人们日常生活中的重要消费资料。能源的利用和保存关系到我国经济和社会的发展和稳定,也是国防安全的必要因素。江苏省作为一个经济强省,满足经济高速发展对于能源的需求量是非常之大的,而江苏省自身能源生产较为匮乏,一次能源产量很低。近年来,江苏省能源需求量的快速增长更是使能源供需短缺进一步加剧,对于外部的能源依赖越来越强,因此对江苏省的能源消耗现状和能源政策进行分析探讨,是为保证江苏省能源经济协调发展的重要课题。首先本文针对江苏省的能源现状进行了江苏省能源资源、生产、消费三方面的分析,总结出了江苏省能源供需的主要问题:(1)能源供给和需求的差距正进一步扩大,由于化石能源的缺乏和清洁能源的欠开发,短期内江苏省的能源极度依赖从外部调入的情况不会改变;(2)能源消费方面,江苏省的原煤产量虽然在逐年下降,但煤炭的消费仍处于主导地位;(3)产业方面,目前第二产业仍在能源消费中占据相当大的比例,而且对于能源的使用量也是最大的,产业结构层面仍需进一步优化;(4)对于清洁能源的开发,江苏省虽已初见成效,仍然需要加大开发力度;(5)在全国范围内江苏省能源强度已达到领先行列,但是仍有很大的提升空间。将江苏省能源现状分析作为出发点,本文通过数据的收集和处理,经过编制和平衡,建立了 2007年江苏省的社会核算矩阵(SAM)。然后以此构建了江苏省能源的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型。运用能源CGE模型对于江苏省的能源政策展开模拟研究,得出模拟结果并进行讨论,然后对江苏省的能源税收政策和技术进步政策的制定设计提出相应的建议。本文进行了征收能源税和促进技术进步的两类情景模拟,征收能源税的政策模拟分为两部分,一是设计了税率为5%,10%,15%的能源税,模拟征收不同能源税对于宏观经济的影响,二是比较了将能源税税收投入从政府收入中剥离而加入到居民收入或企业收入当中所带来的福利影响;促进技术进步的政策模拟是通过提高生产部门的能源效率5%,来观察对江苏宏观经济能源消耗的影响。政策模拟的结果表明:(1)能源税征收有着显著的节能减排作用,但同时对江苏省的宏观经济造成了一定的负面影响;通过将能源税收的收入返还给居民或企业,能够有效减少节能减排的同时减少社会福利的损失。(2)通过促进技术进步来提高能源效率,短期内并不能有效减少能源消耗量。在制定政策时,政府仍需要综合考虑多种政策的实施,比如将技术进步与能源税征收等政策灵活结合,以获取更好的节能减排的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is one of the important material basis for maintaining social and economic development of mankind,it is both necessary for the production of material security industry,but also the people’s daily life important consumer material.Energy use and conservation related to China’s economic and social development and stability,and is an essential element of national security.As an economically strong province of Jiangsu Province,the demand for energy to meet the rapid economic development is very large,and Jiangsu Province’s own energy production is extremely scarce,and primary energy production is of very small amount.In recent years,the rapid growth in energy demand and the growing dependence on external energy in Jiangsu Province is to further exacerbate the shortage of energy supply and demand.Therefore,to ensure that Jiangsu Province’s important issue in energy economy coordinated with development be solved,the status of energy consumption and energy policy in Jiangsu Province were analyzed and discussed.So first of all for the energy situation in Jiangsu Province,three aspects were analyzed as they are energy resources situation,energy production situation and energy consumption in Jiangsu Province,as a result,we summed up the main issues of energy supply and demand in Jiangsu Province:(1)the energy supply and demand gap is further expanded.Due to the demand for economy development,the lack of fossil energy and clean energy,the situation that Jiangsu province relies heavily on energy transferred from the outside will not change in the short term;(2)Though the coal production have decreased in recent years in Jiangsu Province,the coal consumption is still in a dominant position;(3)In the aspect of industry,the energy consumption still occupies a large proportion in the second industry,and the amount of energy used is highest in the second industry.It still need to further optimize the industrial structure level;(4)Jiangsu province has achieved initial success in the development of clean energy,and then we still need to increase development efforts in it;(5)Within the scope of nation the energy intensity in Jiangsu province has reached the leading ranks,but there is still more room for improvement in energy saving.To put the energy situation as a starting point,this paper collect and process the related data,and then through the preparation and balance,we established a Jiangsu Province Social Accounting Matrix in 2007(SAM).Then an energy Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model is constructed by using Jiangsu Province’s SAM.The CGE model for energy in Jiangsu Province is used to make simulation of energy policy,and the simulation results are obtained and discussed.Then we make recommendations for the development of tax policy design energy policy and technological progress in Jiangsu province.In this paper,the energy tax and the promotion of technical progress are simulated in two scenarios.The simulations of energy tax policy is divided into two parts.One part designed a rate of 5%,10%,15%of the energy tax to simulate the macroeconomic impact under different energy tax levy.And in another part,we compared to the release ways from add the energy tax revenue into government’s revenues and add the energy tax revenue into residents’s income or corporates’income to reduce the welfare effects by energy taxation.The policy of promoting technical progress is simulated by improving the energy efficiency of the production sector 5%to observe the impact of macroeconomic energy consumption in Jiangsu province.The results of energy policy simulations show that:(1)The energy taxation has a significant energy saving effect,but simultaneously caused some negative effects in macroeconomic of Jiangsu Province;the return of energy tax income to the residents or companies can effectively reduce energy consuming and reduce the loss of social welfare.(2)Promoting technological advances by improving energy efficiency is not effective in reducing energy consumption in the short term.In the policy developing,the government still needs to consider the implementation of various policies such as the technological progress and energy tax policies flexibly combined to obtain better energy saving effect.更多还原