【作者】 张小玲；

【导师】 蒋红妍；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 项目进度管理对于项目的成败至关重要,针对项目进度管理进行研究具有很大的理论价值与现实意义。传统的项目管理理论中存在很多不足,而关键链技术为项目进度管理开辟了新的研究思路。本文在国内外相关研究的基础上,阐述了关键链项目进度管理理论中的约束理论、隐含假设及应用步骤。针对现有关键链技术中存在的不足,本文将从关键链的识别、缓冲区的设置及缓冲区的监控三方面进行改进,主要的工作如下:(1)在关键链的识别中,提出了一种改进灰色关键链的识别模型。深入分析并量化了影响工序调整优先级的各不确定性因素;利用层次-熵权法确定了各因素对工序调整优先级的影响程度;改进了既有灰色关键链的识别模型中影响因素权重不明以及关联系数不合理的缺点,利用改进灰色关键链的识别模型可以平衡资源冲突,调整工序优先级并识别关键链。(2)在缓冲区设置方面,综合考虑了多种影响因素作用和帕累托法则,改进了缓冲区的计算方法。利用模糊理论中的三角模糊数来估计安全时间;根据改进灰色关键链识别模型中的灰色关联系数,确定影响因素对于安全时间的影响程度并计算安全时间系数,利用安全时间系数对安全时间进行调整;最后考虑帕累托法则,对高延期风险工序与低延期风险工序的缓冲区赋予不同的权值,以修正缓冲区的大小。(3)改进了缓冲区的监控模型。对传统的三色监控法进行改进,将进度控制矩阵运用到缓冲区的监控模型上,通过改进后的监控法对缓冲区的使用情况、工程完工情况进行等级评定,以更好的实现对项目的监控。(4)案例验证。利用实际案例对建立的改进灰色关键链项目进度管理模型的合理性进行了验证,通过蒙特卡洛模拟,与传统的项目进度管理模型进行了对比。本文所建立的改进灰色关键链进度管理模型具有较高的稳定性与可行性,有效的弥补了原有进度管理模型中的部分缺陷,不但完善了项目进度管理体系,而且可以较好的指导项目实施,具有一定的应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Project schedule management is crucial to the success of the project,therefore research on project schedule management has great theoretical and practical significance.There are many deficiencies in the traditional project management theory,but the key chain technology has opened up new research ideas for project schedule management.Based on the relevant research at home and abroad,this paper expounds the constraints theory,implicit assumptions and application steps in the progress management theory of critical chain projects.In view of the deficiencies in the existing critical chain technologies,the improvement of the identification of critical chains,buffer settings and buffer monitoring will be proposed in this paper.The main tasks are as follows:(1)An improved identification model for grey critical chains is proposed in the identification of critical chains.The uncertain factors affecting the priority of process adjustment are analyzed and quantified;the degree of influence of each factor on the priority of process adjustment is determined using the level-entropy method;the disadvantages of the unclear weights of influencing factors and unreasonable correlation coefficients in the identified model of existing grey critical chains are modified,and the modified grey critical chain recognition model can balance resource conflicts,adjust process priorities and identify critical chains.(2)The buffer calculation method is improved considering the role of various influencing factors and the Pareto rule.The safety time is estimated using the triangular fuzzy number in the fuzzy theory;according to the gray correlation coefficient in the improved grey critical chain identification model,the influence degree of the influencefactor on the safety time is determined and then the safety time factor is calculated and adjusted by using the safety time coefficient;considering the Pareto principle,different weights are assigned to the buffers of different delay risk operations to correct the size of the buffer.(3)The buffer monitoring model is improved.The traditional three-color monitoring method is modified,the progress control matrix is applied to the buffer monitoring model,and the improved monitoring method is used to rank the buffer usage and the completion status of the project to better implement the project monitoring.(4)The rationality of the improved grey critical chain project schedule management model is verified by using real cases,and the Monte Carlo simulation was compared to the traditional project schedule management model.The improved gray critical chain schedule management model established in this paper has high stability and feasibility,and effectively compensates for some defects in the original schedule management model.The improved model not only perfects the project schedule management system,but also can better guide the project implementation,which has a certain application value.更多还原