【作者】 李丽；

【导师】 张玉；

【作者基本信息】 青岛科技大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 风险管理在房地产开发项目中越来越发挥着举足轻重的作用,也得到越来越多项目管理者的重视。在房地产项目的开发过程中,无论是项目可行性报告的编制,还是项目施工方案的设计,都注重项目实施过程中可能出现的风险及其可能造成的不利影响。尤其在项目施工阶段,由于涉及到技术、资金、人员、设备、材料等诸多项目内容,不可避免会出现各类风险因素,从而对项目按质按量的施工并交付使用产生影响。因此,加强房地产项目各个阶段的风险识别和评价,针对项目中可能出现的主要风险源,采取科学有效的防范与控制措施,将其控制在可接受范围内,保障房地产项目顺利实施,成为项目建设过程所关注的焦点问题。本文在分析了国内外风险管理研究现状与加强风险管理必要性的前提下,以潍坊Y房地产项目为案例分析对象,深入研究探讨了风险管理在此项目中的应用。首先,分析项目的配套、投资估算等,通过项目财务分析发现该项目在投资利润率、投资利税率及销售利润率上表现较好,该项目适于开发且将得到不错的收益。其次,通过对该项目的四个阶段的认真研究和分析,将相关理论专业知识与潍坊Y房地产项目的具体情况相结合,识别出该项目每个阶段中可能存在的主要风险。再次,在识别出该项目主要风险的基础上,运用模糊综合评价法对识别的结果做出科学有效的分析,通过计算权重值并检验一致性、计算各指标综合权重,获得了十七项风险因素影响权重值;进而对其进行一级、二级模糊综合评价。最后,通过对项目风险识别、分析、评价以及对风险指标的排序,选取排序靠前的风险因素作为重点防范对象,对每一项可能会给该房地产项目带来重要影响的风险提出了具体防范措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk management is playing a more and more important role in real estate development projects,and more and more project managers focus on it.In the development process of real estate projects,whether it is the compilation of project feasibility report or the design of project construction plan,we should pay attention to control the possible risks and possible adverse effects in the implementation process.Especially in the construction phase of the project,due to technology,capital,personnel,equipment,materials and other items,inevitably there will be all kinds of risk factors,thus the quality of the construction of the project and delivered the influence.Therefore,to strengthen the risk identification and evaluation of the various stages of real estate project,the main risk sources may appear in the project and take measures to prevent and control effectively and scientifically to control it in the acceptable range,low-income housing estate project implementation,project construction process has become the focus of attention.This paper analyzes the current situation of risk management at home and abroad and the necessity of strengthening risk management.Taking Weifang Y real estate project as a case study object,the paper thoroughly studies the application of risk management in this project.Firstly analyzed project matching,investment estimation,the project financial analysis found that the project in the investment profit rate,investment profit rate and sales profit rate better,better market prospects of project development.Secondly,identify and analyze the main risk factors of each stage from the design stage,the construction preparation stage,the construction stage and the completion acceptance stage,and establish the risk identification list for the project.Again,using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP,the Weifang Y real estate project risk is the target,with the four stages of the project risk as the criterion layer,the risk factors of each stage segmentation as the criterion layer,construct the risk index system and hierarchical structure evaluation project,by calculating the weight value and consistency test and calculate the weights,obtain the weight of seventeen risk factors of their respective influence value.Finally,combined with the ranking results of index level risk indicators,risk factors of sorting ahead are selected as the key prevention objects,and specific precautionary measures for risk are put forward.更多还原