【作者】 李洁；

【导师】 李强；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 人口学（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 上海作为户籍人口老龄化进程最快的城市,2017年上海65岁及以上户籍老年人口占总比重的21.8%。老龄化的加快和可预见的老年人的医疗和健康成本的上升使得老年人的健康问题备受社会各界关注。本文主要使用1990、2000、2010年上海市人口普查数据以及1998、2003、2005、2008年“上海市老年人口状况和意愿追踪调查数据”,利用Sullivan方法算出1998-2008年间上海户籍老年人的生活自理预期寿命,并对这一时期户籍老年人的生活自理预期寿命及其占余寿比重的变化进行深入分析。研究发现,在1998-2008十年间上海市户籍老年人的自理预期寿命的增速快于余寿的增速,此发现符合Fries(2000)提出的“功能缺损压缩理论”。上海市户籍老年女性的预期寿命和生活自理预期寿命明显比男性高,然而老年女性生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重却比老年男性低,说明老年女性比老年男性多出来的寿命可能是在“不能自理”的状态下存活的,有必要重点关注老年女性尤其是高龄老年女性的晚年生活健康情况。接着本文又使用2003年的“上海市老年人口状况和意愿追踪调查数据”对影响老年人日常生活自理能力的微观因素进行回归分析。结果发现,年龄、婚姻状况、户口性质、患慢性病情况和认知能力均对老年人口的生活自理能力有较大影响。为了进一步探究影响老年人生活自理状况的因素,本文又对可能影响上海老年人生活自理能力预期寿命的宏观因素进行进一步讨论。研究发现,上海的经济发展水平、环境状况以及社会保障服务对老年人的健康情况均产生了积极作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Shanghai is oldest city with respect to the permanent residents in China.The registered people over 65 years old in Shanghai accounts for 21.8% of the total population which indicates the problem of rapid aging and will inevitably bring the healthy problems of the elderly and influence their living conditions.Taking above factors into considerations,we think this research is of great significance.The census data of Shanghai City in 1990,2000 and 2010 is used in this paper.Besides,the data from the survey in 1998 named “Status and Willingness of The Elderly Population in Shanghai”,and the related data from the tracking survey in 2003(the same format for 2005 and 2008)is analysed in this paper.The Sullivan method was employed to calculate the disability-free life expectancy.We found that the growing rate of disability-free life expectancy is faster than that of the life expectancy,which support the theory(“A compression of morbidity”)proposed by Fries.Another finding of this paper is that the life expectancy of elderly women is longer than that of elderly men,but the proportion of the disability-free life expectancy is lower than that of male.In other words,elderly women tend to live under disabled conditions,and we should pay more attentions on the health condition of elderly women.In order to further explore the factors affecting the elderly’s self-care status,To further investigate the micros factor,in this paper we conduct the regression analysis based on the data from “Status and Willingness of The Elderly Population in Shanghai in 2003”.Conclusions are drawn that the marital status,health condition and congnitive ability condition of the elderly are significantly correlated with the ability of life selfcare.this paper first analyzes the macro factors that may affect the life expectancy of the elderly in Shanghai.Our findings show that the economic development level,natural environment and social security services in Shanghai have positive effects on the health of the elderly.更多还原