霾污染对我国能源消费结构优化的影响

【作者】 马征；

【导师】 王文军；

【作者基本信息】 陕西师范大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 2013年以来,我国各地(尤其是北方地区)爆发了严重的霾污染问题,对社会、经济以及民众健康都带来了较为严重的损害,受到社会各界越来越广泛的关注。霾污染属于大气污染的一种,通过众多学者的研究发现,大量煤炭的消耗是导致我国霾污染的根本因素之一,而北方地区冬季燃煤供暖更是其地区性霾污染的最直接原因之一。由于我国“富煤贫油少气”的资源禀赋,造成了我国经济发展长期依赖煤炭等矿石资源,使得煤炭在我国能源消费结构中长期占据着绝对主要地位。因此,在各地政府为了治理霾污染而陆续出台了各种各样的政策中,大多数政策都是为了直接或间接降低煤炭消费占比,推动我国能源消费方式的转变和能源结构的优化。但是在现有的针对大气污染与能源结构之间相互影响的研究,大多数都从能源结构如何影响环境污染的角度出发进行研究,而针对环境污染特别是霾污染如何倒逼能源结构优化的研究则并不多见。鉴于上述背景,本文基于当前我国霾污染和能源消费结构现状分析,归纳总结霾污染治理过程中的政策、经济等约束措施,并尝试从霾污染与能源消费结构优化之间的影响关系出发,分析在过去十几年里,不同经济、能源价格等其他因素影响下,我国霾污染治理所带来的环境约束对促进能源消费结构优化所产生的影响。通过研究发现:(1)整体上,综合了社会关注度的霾污染指标和我国经济发展水平都对煤炭消费结构具有显著的负向影响,经济的发展和霾污染社会影响的提高都推动推动能源消费结构优化;(2)对于发展水平不同的地区,其所面临的发展任务和问题的不同,能源消费结构变化的影响因素也有所不同,在发达地区,煤炭消费结构受到霾污染指标的显著负向影响,在中等地区,霾污染、能源价格都对煤炭消费结构具有显著负向影响,而经济发展则对其具有显著正向影响,在欠发达地区,由于发展经济仍是其主要任务,且其产业以轻工业和第三产业为主,清洁能源资源丰富,因此只有经济发展对煤炭消费结构有显著负向影响。本文共分六个部分,每一部分的主要内容如下:第一部分为绪论,阐述本文的研究背景、目的、意义、研究思路和方法以及本文的创新点,并在这一部分综述国内外的研究现状;第二部分为相关理论基础,阐述能源经济学相关理论和环境经济学相关理论,包括外部性理论等;第三部分为现状分析,分别对当前我国霾污染现状和能源消费现状进行描述分析,其中霾污染现状分别从东部、中部和西部三大地区类别分析,能源消费现状从消费总量、消费结构角度进行分析;第四部分是分析霾污染约束下的能源消费结构优化。首先从政策、经济等方面对霾污染治理带来的环境约束进行归纳分析,其次对霾污染约束下的能源消费结构优化进行简要分析;本文第五部分是实证分析,首先是构建本文研究的能源消费结构指标、霾污染指标、经济发展指标、能源价格指标等,并对各项指标进行数据描述性统计分析,其次,构建动态面板数据模型,结合广义矩估计方法GMM对模型全样本数据进行回归估计,最后按照经济发展水平的不同程度将样本平均分为三类,并分别进行回归分析,研究经济发展水平不同的地区其能源消费结构变化的影响因素;第六部分是结论与建议。首先是对本文研究的总结,其次是针对前文中研究,提出比较有针对性的建议,最后对本文的不足与欠缺之处进行探讨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 2013,there have been serious haze pollution in China(especially in the North).Chinese haze pollution has caused serious damage to the society,economy and people’s health,and it has attracted more and more attention from all walks of life.Haze pollution is a kind of air pollution,many studies have found that a large number of coal combustion is the most fundamental factor leading to haze pollution in China,and the northern region’s winter coal heating is one of the direct causes of its regional haze pollution.Because of China’s "rich coal less gas" resource endowment,economic development of our country depends on the consumption of coal for a long time,and coal occupies an absolute position in the energy consumption structure of our country.Therefore,in order to control haze pollution,various governments in China have issued various policies,most of which are to promote the transformation of energy consumption structure in China,reduce the proportion of coal consumption,and promote the optimization of energy structure.Although there are many researches about the relationship between energy structure and air pollution,most of the researches are based on how the energy structure affects the environmental pollution,and research on how haze pollution drives the optimization of energy structure is rare.In view of the above background,based on the current situation of haze pollution and energy consumption structure in China,this paper summarizes the policy and economic constraints in the process of haze pollution control.And start from the influence of haze pollution on the optimization of energy consumption structure,try to analyze the impact of environmental constraints,brought by haze pollution control in China,on the optimization of energy consumption structure in the past several years under the influence of other factors such as different economy and energy price.Through the study we found that:(1)in the whole country,the haze pollution and economic development level of China have a significant negative impact on the coal consumption structure,both the economic development and the improvement of haze pollution’s social influence promote the optimization of the energy consumption structure;(2)for the areas with different development levels,they have different tasks and problems in the process of development,thus the influence factors of energy consumption structure are also different.In the developed areas,the coal consumption structure is significantly negatively affected by the haze pollution indicator.In the middle area,the haze pollution and energy price have a significant negative impact on the coal consumption,while the economic development have a significant positive impact on it.In underdeveloped areas,the development of economy is still the primary task,and these areas have rich clean-energy resources and their industries are mainly light industries and third industries,therefore,only economic development has a significant negative impact on the coal consumption structure.This article is divided into six parts,and the specific contents are as follows:The first part is the introduction,which describes the research background,purpose,significance,research ideas and methods,as well as the innovation of this paper,and review the research status at home and abroad in this part;The third part is the related theoretical basis,this article expounds the related theory of energy economics and environmental economics,including the theory of externality and so on;The second part is the analysis of the current situation of the haze pollution and energy consumption in China,the current situation of haze pollution is analyzed from three parts of the eastern,central and western regions,and the energy consumption is analyzed from the perspective of total consumption and consumption structure;The fourth part is the analysis of energy consumption structure optimization under the constraint of haze pollution,firstly the environmental constraints caused by haze pollution treatment are summarized from policy and economic aspects,secondly,the optimization of energy consumption structure under haze pollution constraint is briefly analyzed;The fifth part is the empirical analysis,the first is to build the indicators of this article such as energy consumption structure,haze pollution,economic development and energy price,and following descriptive statistical analysis of these indicators,secondly,the dynamic panel data model is constructed,and the generalized moment estimation method(GMM)is used to estimate the full sample data of the model,finally,according to the different level of economic development,the sample is divided into three categories,and the regression analysis is carried out respectively to research the different factors influencing the change of energy consumption structure in regions with different economic levels.The sixth part is the conclusion and the suggestion,we summary the research firstly,then put forward some pertinent suggestions for the above research,and finally we discuss the shortcomings of this paper.更多还原