【作者】 孙静；

【导师】 郝生跃；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 随着国家“走出去”战略的不断贯彻落实,我国越来越多的建筑企业走出国门,参与到国际承包市场的竞争中。EPC作为国际工程的主要承包模式,在一定程度上解决了设计、采购、施工分离的矛盾,实现了项目全过程进度、费用和质量的有效控制。EPC模式将更多的业主风险转移给总承包商,风险具有多样性、广泛性、复杂性等特点。近年来中国企业虽在海外承包市场取得一定的业绩,但其风险意识不强,风险管理研究还不够深入,风险管理能力也有待提高。本文结合马尔代夫IN机场EPC项目的具体实例,对项目风险管理进行阐述。本文站在总承包商的角度基于项目风险管理理论,首先通过专家调研访谈法识别出马尔代夫IN机场EPC项目的外部和内部风险,共识别出自然风险、政治风险、经济风险、法律风险、社会风险、市场风险、EPC总承包合同风险、设计管理阶段的风险、物资采购阶段的风险、工程施工管理阶段的风险和试运行及保修阶段的风险共11大类43项,形成IN机场风险识别清单。其次,采用风险因素概率评估方法和风险因素危害程度评估方法对单一风险可能发生的概率和危害程度进行评估。采用层次分析法,计算出43项子风险因素相对于总目标层的风险因素权重。综合运用模糊综合评价法和层次分析法,对项目整体风险危害程度进行评估。建立IN机场EPC项目各风险因素评价表,根据各风险因素发生的概率水平和风险危害程度绘制风险因素评级坐标系,借鉴帕累托二八分布原理,对项目各风险因素分成A、B、C、D四个等级。最后,对各项风险因素提出具体的处理策略、责任部门和应对方法。本文的撰写可以对马尔代夫项目和机场类项目的风险管理工作提供参考,也为中国建筑企业走出国门,参与海外承包市场的竞争提供可借鉴的经验。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the continuous implementation of the "going out" strategy of the country,more and more construction companies in China have gone abroad to participate in the competition in the international contracting market.As a major contracting model for international projects,EPC solves the contradiction between design,procurement,and construction separation to a certain extent,and achieves effective control of the progress,cost,and quality of the entire project.The EPC model transfers more owner risks to the general contractor.The risks are diverse,extensive,and complex.However,in the EPC project,the contractor took most of the management work and risks of the project.Although the Chinese enterprises had achieved certain achievements in the overseas contracting market,their risk awareness was not strong,the risk management research was not thorough enough,and the risk management capabilities need to be improved.This article describes the project risk management based on the specific examples of the Maldives IN airport EPC project.This article is based on the theory of project risk management from the point of view of the general contractor.It first identifies the external and internal risks of the INPC EPC project in the Maldives through expert surveys and interviews.It identifies natural risks,political risks,economic risks,legal risks and social risks.,Market risk,EPC general contract risk,design management phase risk,material procurement phase risk,project construction management phase risk and trial operation and warranty phase risk are 11 categories and 43 items,forming IN airport risk identification list.Secondly,the probabilistic risk assessment method and risk factor risk assessment method are used to evaluate the probability and harm degree of a single risk.Using the analytic hierarchy process,the weight of 43 risk factors relative to the total target level was calculated.Comprehensively evaluate the risk of the project by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP.Establish risk assessment tables for IN airport EPC projects,draw risk factor rating coordinate systems based on the probability level of each risk factor and the degree of risk hazard,and use the Pareto 28 distribution principle to divide the risk factors into A,B,C and D four levels。Finally,put forward specific treatment strategies,responsible departments,and response methods for various risk factors.The writing of this article can provide reference for risk management of projects in Maldives and airports,and also provide experience for Chinese construction companies to go abroad and participate in competition in overseas contracting markets.更多还原