【作者】 赵宇；

【导师】 石绍宾；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 税务（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 1994年分税制改革以来,我国形成了增值税和消费税并存的流转税征收格局,在当时的经济环境下有效地促进了我国市场经济的发展。伴随着我国整体经济水平的提升、经济制度的不断完善,增值税和营业税这种两税并存的税收制度已经无法满足现阶段的社会发展需求。为了满足社会经济发展和产业结构调整的需求,我国营业税改征增值税(以下简称“营改增”)税制改革于2012年首次在上海试点,随后其改革范围也从最开始上海的“1+6”行业①扩展至全国所有缴纳营业税的行业。此次税制政策的变动不仅有效地适应了我国当前经济形势的变更,更能有效地促进我国经济结构调整和产业转型升级。“营改增”政策的实施,有效地保证了行业间的税负平等,打通不同行业的上下游企业间的抵扣链条,解决抵扣链条中断的问题。同时,“营改增”政策能够在一定程度上有效提升市场对资源的配置效率,合理引导市场主体对于资本及劳动等生产要素的配置,促进企业成长。本文通过构建双重差分模型,对沪深A股的336家上市公司相关数据进行实证研究,分析出“营改增”政策的实施对于企业劳动雇佣的影响以及其具体作用机制。本文总共分为五章。第一章主要介绍本文的研究背景、意义、文献综述、研究思路、框架和方法以及主要观点与不足等。第二章简述“营改增”政策的起因、对经济发展的影响以及已经显现的政策成效。第三章通过构建双重差分模型实证分析“营改增”政策对劳动雇佣的影响,即从总体层面验证“营改增”政策对企业劳动雇佣人数和劳动支出成本的影响;同时按照地区因素、行业因素和公司属性因素对“营改增”政策对劳动雇佣的影响进行分组检验及说明。第四章从影响机制的角度出发,首先论述“营改增”政策影响劳动雇佣的经济学原理,通过寻找中介因素,结合中介因素分析“营改增”政策影响劳动雇佣的机制,最后通过实证分析验证“营改增”政策影响劳动雇佣的具体机制及效应大小。第五章结合上文的理论分析和实证结果,总结“营改增”政策对劳动雇佣产生的影响并补充分析“营改增”政策宏观层面上对劳动雇佣产生的影响,最后根据其对劳动雇佣的影响提出相关的政策建议。通过数据筛选和处理,本文以沪深A股的336家上市公司所对应的2016个数据为研究对象,利用双重差分模型,验证了“营改增”政策对劳动雇佣产生的影响:“营改增”政策能够显著促进劳动雇佣人数的增长并能够显著促进企业劳动资本的支出。同时借助中介效应模型分析得出:“营改增”政策通过替代效应、投资效应两种主要机制对劳动雇佣人数产生影响;“营改增”政策通过收入效应、替代效应、投资效应三种作用机制对劳动支出成本产生有影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform of the tax sharing system in 1994,China has formed a collection tax regime that combines the value-added tax and consumption tax,which effectively promoted the development of China’s market economy in the current economic environment.With the improvement of the overall economic level of our country and the continuous improvement of the economic system,the taxation system where both taxes and sales tax coexist has failed to meet the needs of social development at this stage.In order to meet the needs of socio-economic development and industrial restructuring,China implemented the value-added tax("Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax")in Shanghai for the first time in 2012.The scope of reform has also been from the "1+6" industry expanded to all industries in the country that pay business tax.The changes in the taxation policy not only effectively adapted to the changes in China’s current economic situation,but also effectively promoted the restructuring of China’s economic.The implementation of the policy of "Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax" will help achieve a balanced tax burden among various industries and bridge the gaps between different industries and solve the problem of the interruption of the offset chain.At the same time,the policy of "Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax" can increase the efficiency of resource allocation in the market,guide to allocate production factors and promote the growth of enterprises.This paper constructs a DID model and empirically studies the relevant data of 336 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares,and analyzes the impact of the implementation of the "Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax" policy on labor employment and its specific mechanism.This article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter mainly introduces the research background,significance,literature review,research ideas,frameworks and methods,main ideas and deficiencies.The second chapter briefly describes the causes,impact on economic development and the effectiveness of the policies that have already emerged.The third chapter empirically analyzes the impact of the policy on labor employment by constructing the DID Model,meanwhile,verifying the effect of the policy on the number of labor employment and the cost of labor expenditure.And according to the regional factors,industry factors,and company factors,explain the impact of the policy on labor employment.The fourth chapter first discusses the economic principles of the policy affecting labor employment from the perspective of the impact mechanism.Through searching for the mediating factors,combine the intermediary factors and the mechanism of the policy affecting labor employment,analyze and verify the specific mechanisms and effects of the policy on labor employment.The fifth chapter combines the above theoretical analysis and empirical results and sums up the impact of the "Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax"policy on labor employment and supplements the analysis of the impact of the"Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax" policy on labor employment at the macro level.Finally raise relevant policy recommendations based on the impact of employment.Through data screening and processing,this paper takes the 2016 data corresponding to 336 listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares as the research object and uses the DID model to verify the impact of the " Business Tax Replaced by Value-added Tax" policy on labor employment:The policy can significantly promote the increase in the number of employees employed and can significantly promote the expenditure on labor capital of enterprises.At the same time,the analysis of the mediation effect model shows:the policy has an impact on the number of employees through the substitution and investment effects;the policy has an impact on the cost of labor expenses through income effect,substitution effect,and investment effect.更多还原