【作者】 张萍；

【导师】 郭建强；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 金融（专业学位）， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 利率传导机制在货币政策影响宏观经济的过程中发挥着关键性作用,中央银行通过改变官方利率来影响市场利率,进一步引起资本成本的变化,并最终影响到企业的投资行为。近年来,我国中央银行对利率的调整逐年频繁,直观上来看,经过改革我国货币政策利率传导机制应该更加健全,对实体经济的影响效果更加显著。但是根据之前一些学者的研究,经济系统对利率的反应比较平淡,利率对投资和经济增长的拉动作用并不理想,呈现弱有效甚至无效的情况。在我国经济体制由管制向市场转变的过程中,利率传导机制也在进行着类似的变革。我国对利率市场化改革的探索始于1978年,经过了近40年的努力,直到2015年10月才基本完成。通过研究货币政策利率传导机制对企业投资行为的影响,不仅可以判断我国利率传导渠道畅通与否,而且还能够衡量我国的利率市场化改革是否已经取得了阶段性成果。因此,本文基于企业投资视角,对货币政策利率传导机制效果进行研究分析,并且根据研究结果提出相应的配套措施和合理建议,有助于从微观角度为我国货币政策研究和制定提供参考,具有重要的理论和实践价值。本文从投资行为的角度出发研究了货币政策利率传导机制的传导效果。本研究首先梳理了国内外关于货币政策利率传导机制的重要研究,并且介绍了利率理论的发展脉络。之后,根据现有研究并结合我国具体的货币政策和利率体系,本文将货币政策利率传导机制分为了三个阶段:政策利率到市场利率;从市场利率到银行借贷利率,银行借贷利率到实体经济。在实践中,货币政策的实施效果很大程度上依赖于这三个传导环节的效果,目前,学术界更多地对前两个阶段进行研究,较少关注第三个阶段,而第三个阶段恰恰是决定货币政策效果好坏与否的最终环节。因此,基于企业投资行为对利率敏感性角度,结合新古典资本使用者成本模型,本文将对货币政策利率传导机制的第三个阶段效果的实证检验作为研究重点。检验结果显示,从总体上,我国货币政策能够通过利率有效地影响企业的投资行为,但是该影响力偏弱,由于企业产权性质、企业规模、金融市场发展程度的影响,利率传导在不同的企业之间存在着不平衡性,这反映了我国货币政策利率传导机制存在着制度问题和结构问题。因此,要在中国建立和完善积极有效的货币政策利率传导机制,要充分考虑到国有产权制度改革、利率政策的针对性、金融深化改革等问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Interest rate transmission mechanism plays a crucial role in the process of how monetary policy influences macroeconomic,which,through interest rate channel,monetary policy,such as changes in short-term official interest rates,will change the market interest rates,causing the change of the cost(price)of capital,and then in turn affect investment decisions.In recent years,China’s central bank interest rate adjustment has became more and more frequent,which intuitively gives us the impression that the interest rate adjustment becomes more flexible and mechanism of interest rates is gradually perfect.But,according to some scholars’ research,economic system’s reaction to interest rates is flat,the effect of interest rate on investment and economic growth is not ideal,which is weak or useless.The reform of China’s interest rate liberalization began in 1978 and took substantive steps in 1996.It was not completed until October 2015.By studying the influence of interest rate on investment,it is also a key link to judge whether the channel of interest rate transmission in China is smooth or not.Therefore,based on enterprise investment,this article researches the effectiveness of monetary policy interest rate transmission mechanism,and proposes corresponding measures and reasonable suggestions according to the conclusion.It helps to provide value for our country monetary policy research from the microscopic view and has important theoretical and realistic significance.This paper studies the effect of monetary policy rate transmission mechanism from the perspective of enterprise investment.Firstly,this study sorts out the research on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy interest rate at home and abroad,and introduces the development context of interest rate theory.Then,according to the current research and our country’s specific system of monetary policy and interest rates,this paper divides monetary policy interest rate transmission mechanism into three stages:from policy rate to market interest rates;from market interest rates to bank lending rates and from bank lending rates to the real economy.In practice,the effect of monetary policy to a large extent depends on the effect of the three transmission link,at present,the scholars study more on the first two stages,less on the third stage which is the final link whether monetary policy effect is good or not.Therefore,based on the sensitivity of enterprise investment behavior to interest rates,combined with the new classical capital user cost model,this paper focuses on the effect of the third stage.Test results show that,in general,China’s monetary policy can affect the investment behavior of the enterprise through the interest rate effectively,but the influence is weak,because of the enterprise property rights,enterprise scale and the degree of financial market development.The influence of interest rate conduction in there is imbalance between different enterprises,which reflects the monetary policy interest rate transmission mechanism in our country has institutional and structural problems.Therefore,to establish and perfect effective monetary policy interest rate transmission mechanism in China,we should fully consider the state-owned property right system reform,interest rate policy’s pertinence,financial deepening reform and other issues.更多还原