【作者】 齐飞；

【导师】 丁秋雷；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 物流管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 物流配送是物流系统的重要组成部分之一,直接与收货人接触。配送效率的高低不仅影响到配送成本,也在很大程度上影响到客户的重复消费、企业在业内的形象与地位。所以在实施物流配送之前,企业都会制定一个初始配送计划以保证配送的准时、高效。但是,在配送过程中经常发生许多无法避免的不确定事件,如交通拥堵、天气突变以及车辆故障等。这些干扰事件造成的时间延迟可能会使企业最初拟定的配送方案受到干扰,无法顺利实施。在干扰造成影响之后,如何对扰动进行度量以及如何迅速调整以生成对物流系统扰动最小的方案是物流配送亟待解决的关键问题,也是干扰管理研究的核心。本文以物流系统中的客户和企业作为度量物流配送延迟干扰的两个主体,将客户终身价值和成本作为扰动度量对象,构建物流配送延迟干扰管理模型。本文的主要研究工作如下:(1)基于客户终身价值的扰动度量方法。本文对国内外相关研究进行归纳分析,发现物流配送干扰管理在对客户的扰动度量方面较少考虑到客户的价值差异和未来购买损失。基于此,本文确定客户和企业为物流配送延迟扰动的两个主体,并将客户终身价值的概念引用到物流配送延迟干扰管理的问题中来,利用客户的历史交易数据,对每个客户的潜在价值进行量化,更为精准地体现出每位客户的价值差异以及其能带给企业贡献的价值。度量客户终身价值扰动的是另一种从客户角度出发的扰动量化方式。(2)提出一种新的物流配送延迟干扰管理模型。针对物流配送过程中因为天气变化、道路堵塞、车辆故障等一系列不确定性事件而导致的物流配送延迟干扰问题,本文以干扰事件发生的实质性状态为基础,以客户终身价值最大为一级目标、以配送成本最低为二级目标构建问题的干扰管理模型,综合考虑客户终身价值和配送成本对原计划进行局部调整。(3)基于客户终身价值的物流配送延迟干扰管理模型求解。首先给出客户终身价值的量化方法,以及求解模型的蚁群算法的步骤和流程,并采用Matlab2014a和Excel Solver实现数据处理与模型优化。最后以快餐配送为应用背景,证明了本文模型的实用性与优越性。本文把客户终身价值理论融入进配送干扰管理的研究中去,是营销学科和物流学科的一次交叉渗透,既扩大了客户终身价值理论的应用范围,又丰富了物流配送干扰管理的理论和方法。本文提出的基于客户终身价值的干扰管理方法能够帮助企业在延迟干扰发生后迅速应对变化,实时地制定干扰管理方案。该干扰管理方案优先考虑服务终身价值更大的客户,有利于重要客户忠诚度的培养、对客户关系的维持以及企业竞争力的增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the important part of the entire logistics system,logistics distribution contacts with customers directly.Distribution efficiency not only affects thedistribution costs,but also to a large extent affects repeat purchases of customers and images of enterprises in the industry.Therefore,before the implementation of logistics distribution,logistics operators will develop an initial distribution plan to ensure the delivery is timely and efficient..However,there are a lot of unavoidable uncertain events in the process of logistics distribution,such as road congestion,weather changes,traffic accidents and vehicle failures.The delay caused by these disturbances may cause the initial distribution plan made by corporates to be interrupted and can not be implemented smoothly.After the impact of disruption,how to measure the disruption and how to adjust quickly to generate a scheme that is of the smallest disruption to the system is the key problem to be solved urgently.Besides,it is also the core of the disruption management research.To construct the delay disruption management model of logistics distribution,the paper selects customers and the corporate in the logistics system as the two main bodies that measure the disruption of logistics distribution delay,select the customer lifetime value and cost are used as the object of disturbance measurement.The thesis is divided into following three parts:(1)A new method of disruption measurement based on customer lifetime value.By sorting out the related research at home and abroad,we can find that papers about disruption management for logistics distribution in the customers’ disruption measures consider little of the customers’ value differences and future purchase losses.Based on this,the paper determines the customers and logistics operators as the two subjects for the disruption of logistics distribution delay,the paper cite the concept of customer lifetime value to the disruption management for logistics distribution delay issues,the prediction of each customer’s future value based on customers’ historical transaction data can accurately reflect the value of each customer differences and their contribution to the enterprise,so this is another disruption measurement way in the view of customers.(2)A new model of disruption management for logistics distribution delay is proposed.In order to solve the problem of delay in the logistics distribution caused by weather events,road congestion and vehicle failure during the logistics distribution process,based on the real state of the interference event,this paper sets the maximum of customer lifetime as the first target,the lowest cost of distribution as the second objectives and then build the disruption management model,and then adjust original plan locally taking customer lifetime value and distribution costs into account.(3)A optimization method to solve disruption management model for logistics distribution delay based on customer lifetime value.Firstly,the quantitative methods of customer lifetime value as well as the steps and processes of the ant colony algorithm for solving the model are given.In addition,the data processing and model optimization are implemented by Matlab2014a and Excel Solver.Finally,the validity and superiority of this model is verified through application research.In this thesis,the combination of customer lifetime value theory and disruption management for logistics distribution is a cross-infiltration of marketing and logistics,which not only extends the application of customer lifetime value theory,but also enriches the theory and method of disruption management for logistics distribution.The disruption management method proposed in this paper can help the corporates respond to the changes quickly after the delay disturbance,and develop the disruption management plan in real time.The disruption management scheme gives priority to customers with greater lifetime value.It is not only conducive to the development of important customers’ loyalty and customer relationship maintenance,but also is conducive to the improvement of enterprises’competitiveness.更多还原