【作者】 赵莹；

【导师】 武剑红；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2018， 硕士

【摘要】 推动京津冀协同发展,是党中央、国务院在新的历史发展阶段提出的重大国家战略,未来京津冀将建设成为世界级城市群,成为中国在世界发展格局中的重要战略支点。协同发展,交通先行。在京津冀交通一体化的大背景下,《京津冀协同发展交通一体化规划》应运而生,交通基础设施建设成为重要抓手,规划项目6年预计投资1.5万亿元。那么现如今京津冀地区交通基础设施与经济发展是否已经协调以及规划与经济协调的效果预测评估就成了本文的逻辑起点和研究的对象。本文针对京津冀交通基础设施与经济发展是否协调的问题,在现有研究的基础上,深化对协调发展概念内涵及相关理论的理解,搭建了交通运输和区域经济两个子系统,构建了完善的交通基础设施和经济发展协调水平的评价指标体系。首先,根据京津冀地区2001—2015年的纵向的时间序列数据,引用数据包络分析法(DEA)和协调度模型,分别研究北京、天津、河北及京津冀整体各自内部铁路、公路、水运、航空交通基础设施现状和经济协调发展的问题,找出三省市交通基础设施中的薄弱环节。结果表明京、津、冀及京津冀地区的交通投入对经济产出由不协调趋于协调,经济投入对交通产出的协调性下降。其中铁路和公路与经济的协调性较差。北京、天津是京津冀发展中的领头羊,考虑到河北是京津冀发展中的短板,也展开对2015年京津冀13个城市横向的协调发展评价,探索不协调发展需要关注的重点城市所在。最后,对2020年交通基础设施规划的情况与经济的协调性预测评估,试图找出交通基础设施建设与经济协调发展中存在的不足,力争为京津冀地区协同发展规划的制定和实施提供有益的借鉴。研究发现2015年邯郸、秦皇岛、沧州三城市的铁路、公路与经济协调程度较高,其余城市大多为不协调城市,而在交通规划后的2020年各城市交通与经济的协调性均有所改善,北京改善幅度达到36%,天津达到35%,唐山更是达到78%。同时,京津冀地区无论是交通投入对经济产出还是经济投入对交通产出的协调效率均值都有提升,分别由2015年的0.643增加到2020年的0.659,0.646增加到0.677,这说明京津冀地区的交通一体化建设对当地的整体协调发展具有明显的推动作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is a major national strategy proposed by Central Government in this new historical stage.In the future,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-jin-ji)will be developed to a world-class city cluster and become an important strategic fulcrum in China’s world development pattern.coordinated development,traffic first.Under the background of Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei transport integration,the "The Transportation Integration Planning for Jingjinji Coordinated Development" came into being.Traffic infrastructure construction has become an important starting point.The planned investment in the project is estimated to be 1.5 trillion yuan in 6 years.So now whether the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transport infrastructure and economic development have been coordinated and the effectiveness of planning and economic coordination has become the logical starting point for this study and research object.This paper aims at the coordination between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transport infrastructure and economic development.On the basis of the existing research,we deepen the understanding of the connotation of the concept of coordinated development and related theories,set up two subsystems of transportation and regional economy,and set up an evaluation index system of perfect coordination of transportation infrastructure and economic development.First of all,based on the longitudinal time series data of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Province from 2001 to 2015,the data envelopment analysis(DEA)and coordination degree model are used to study the issues concerning coordinated development of railways,highways,water transport,air traffic infrastructure and economy in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Jingjinji region as a whole,and identify the weak links in the transport infrastructure of the three provinces and municipalities.The results show that the traffic input from Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has shifted from uncoordinated economic output to coordinated,the coordination of economic inputs on traffic output has declined.Among them,the coordination between the railway and the highway is poor.Considering that Hebei is a short board,it also started to evaluate the coordinated development of the 13 cities in Jingjinji in 2015,and explored the key cities that need attention.Finally,the paper predicts and evaluates the effect of traffic infrastructure planning and economic development in 2020,trying to find out the shortcomings in the coordinated development of transportation infrastructure and economy and strives to provide useful reference for the formulation and implementation of coordinated development planning in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area.The study found that in 2015,the railway,highway and economy in Handan,Qinhuangdao and Cangzhou cities are highly coordinated.Most of the remaining cities are uncoordinated cities in 2015,and the traffic and economic coordination among all cities improved after traffic planning in 2020,36%for Beijing,35%for Tianjin and 78%for Tangshan.At the same time,the mean value of coordination efficiency of economic inputs from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region all increased,from 0.643 in 2015 to 0.659 in 2020 and 0.646 to 0.677 in 2020,indicating that the traffic integration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region The construction of the overall coordination and development of the local area has a clear role in promoting.更多还原