【作者】 周婷；

【导师】 莫莎；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 在新经济时期,产能过剩已然成为影响我国经济可持续发展的绊脚石。在政府业绩考核机制下,各地政府在引进外资过程中展开恶性竞争,将精力集中在外资数量上,鲜少关注外资质量,然而,不同质量的FDI对东道国产能过剩产生的影响大相径庭,尚没有关于FDI质量影响产能过剩的研究。因此,探讨FDI的异质性对我国产能过剩的影响有着重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文通过梳理相关理论文献,并重点阐述FDI质量影响产能过剩的理论机制,分析指出高质量FDI冲击有助于弥补东道国“技术缺口”,为东道国产业注入新的活力,提升东道国整体生产和销售水平,并可以通过示范、竞争、人员流动以及产业关联等效应间接对东道国企业技术和管理水平、人力资本水平、生产经营方式、出口能力以及产业结构发生作用,提高东道国要素生产力、促进东道国产业结构升级和优化、拉动消费和出口,同时从生产侧和消费侧化解过剩产能,FDI的“资金”冲击会增加东道国的投资水平,低技术含量的FDI的进入可能在东道国形成重复建设或过度投资,导致东道国产能过剩问题更为严重。通过采用我国33个工业行业数据,测算2003年～2013年不同行业的产能过剩和FDI质量指数,分析我国样本年间产能过剩和FDI质量发展状况,并在理论分析框架的基础上运用两步系统GMM方法分别从工业行业整体、重产能过剩行业、轻产能过剩行业三个视角实证研究FDI质量对产能过剩的影响,研究结果发现:无论是行业整体还是分行业类型,FDI质量对产能过剩均具有显著且稳定的影响,提高FDI质量是缓解我国行业产能过剩的重要途径,且对于轻产能过剩行业而言,轻微的FDI质量的提升将显著减少其产能过剩状况,而外商投资存量额、内资投资存量额和政府干预均不利于产能过剩的化解,出口比重的上升会引起产能过剩指数的下降。最后,文章根据理论和实证分析结果,得出了关于缓解我国产能过剩问题、谋求经济的可持续发展的政策启示:(1)应控制FDI数量,升华FDI质量,利用高质量FDI带动内资企业化解产能过剩;(2)注重FDI技术和管理水平,实行外资进入门槛制度,提高引进外资的技术含量;(3)提升外资企业规模,促使FDI企业形成内部规模经济的同时与内资企业形成外部规模经济;(4)提高FDI的本地化程度;(5)引进外资应注重其出口对内资企业的激励和带动作用;(6)扩大重产能过剩内资企业出口等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the new economic era,overcapacity has become a stumbling block to the sustainable development of China’s economy.In the government performance evaluation mechanism,local government vicious compete in the course of introducing foreign capital,who focus on the amount of foreign capital and pay little attention to quality of foreign investment,while FDI with different quality have quite different effects on the overcapacity of host country.There are little theoretical research on the influence of FDI quality on overcapacity.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the influence of FDI quality on China’s overcapacity.By reviewing the related literature and focusing on the theoretical mechanism of the influence of FDI quality on overcapacity,this paper pointed out that the high quality FDI will help make up for the "technology gap" of host country,inject new vitality for the industries of the host countries,enhance her overall production and marketing level,influences the technology and management level,the level of human capital,the mode of production and management,the ability to export as well as the industrial structure of the host country,improve the productivity of enterprises through the demonstration,competition,personnel flow and industrial association effect indirectly,promote the host country industrial structure upgrading and optimization,stimulate consumption and exports,and eventually resolve excess capacity from the production side and consumer side.FDI will increase the level of investment of the host country.Low tech FDI may form duplication or excessive investment in the host country,which can lead to the problem of excess more serious.By using the data of 33 industrial sectors of China,the paper calculates the overcapacity and FDI quality index of different industries in 2003-2014,analyses the development of the sample from overcapacity and FDI quality in our country,and use two step system GMM method to carry on the empirical research from three aspects:the whole industry,heavy overcapacity industry and light overcapacity industry.The results show that:FDI quality has a significant and stable effect on excess capacity whether the industry as a whole or sub industry type.Improving the quality of FDI is an important way to alleviate industry overcapacity.A slight increase in the quality of FDI will significantly reduce its overcapacity situation for light overcapacity industries.As far as control variables are concerned,the amount of foreign investment stock,the amount of domestic investment and the government intervention are not conducive to the solution of overcapacity,and the increase of export proportion will lead to a decline in the index of overcapacity.Finally,according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper comes up with some policy implications for alleviating the problem of overcapacity in China and seeking the sustainable development of economy:We should(1)control the number of FDI and sublimate FDI quality,use high quality FDI to drive domestic enterprises to resolve overcapacity.(2)focus on FDI technology and management level,establish capital entry threshold system to improve the technical content of foreign capital.(3)enhance the scale of foreign enterprises,prompt FDI enterprises to form the internal economies of scale and external economies of scale.(4)improve the localization degree of FDI.(5)focus on the effect of foreign investment on domestic enterprises.(6)expand the export of domestic enterprises with heavy production capacity.更多还原