【作者】 王杰；

【导师】 陈迎欣；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 很多事情的发生都在人们的预料之外,这些事情就是人们平时所热议的突发事件。例如“汶川地震”、“云南鲁甸地震”以及“昆明暴恐事件”等。这些事件的发生都给国家、社会和公众造成了巨大的经济财产损失,甚至有人还为此失去了宝贵的生命。突发事件的发生还可能会引起社会动荡,威胁社会的和谐与稳定。突发事件给人们带来了如此沉重的灾难,但是对于突发事件的应急处置却远没有达到人们预期的效果。因此,本文在突发事件背景下,对多主体协作模型进行研究。通过多主体之间的相互协调与配合,实现对突发事件进行有效地控制。本文研究的主要内容是:(1)构建基于动态协作工作系统的突发事件下多主体协作模型。构建多主体协作模型,确立相应的建模假设,提出了主体之间的交互规则。在构建后的模型中,参与应急救援的主体都拥有灵活地应急处置能力,增强了应急主体的灵活性与自主性。(2)构建基于熵权法的突发事件下多主体协作度测度模型。运用熵权法对多主体协作度的测度模型进行构建,确定各个主体的权重。(3)对多主体协作进行仿真研究。通过调整各主体的属性值,观察多主体仿真图像的变化,分析各主体属性值的变化对公众情绪的影响。基于对仿真结果的分析,本文提出了提高多主体应急协作效率的策略,主要表现在:(1)加强政府领导能力与公信力。政府处在突发事件应急协作救援的核心地位,在应急救援过程中要加强政府的领导能力和政府的公信力。(2)加强非政府组织的动员能力。使更多的组织和个人加入到应急救援过程中。(3)提高企业的社会责任感。将企业在组织化程度和资源方面的先天性优势得到最大程度的发挥。(4)加强权威媒体的信息传播速率。增强相关信息的透明度,满足公众对应急救援信息的需求,消除人们心中的恐慌与疑虑。(5)提高公众应急救援的积极性。鼓励更多的公众加入到对突发事件的应急处置过程中。(6)提高应急主体的协作度。加强各应急主体之间的沟通与协作,使突发事件给社会和公众所造成的各类损失降到最低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Many things happen in people’s unexpectations,which are the events that people usually debate heatedly.For example,"Wenchuan earthquake","Yunnan LuDian earthquake" and"violent terrorist incident in Kunming".These events cause the state,society and the public tremendous losses of economic and property,even some people lose their precious lives for this.Emergency may also cause social unrest and threaten the harmony and stability of the society.Emergencies bring such a heavy disaster to people,but it is far from reaching the effect which people expect for.Therefore,Research on the Multi-agent dynamic collaboration model based on emergency background in this paper.Make emergency be controlled effectively through agents cooperation with each other.The main contents of this paper are:(1)Construct the multi-agent collaboration model based on dynamic collaborative work system.Build the multi-agent collaboration model,establish the corresponding modeling assumptions and put forward the rules of the interaction between the agents.The agents emergency rescuing have the flexibility to deal with emergencies,which enhance flexibility and autonomy in the builded model.(2)Build the multi-agent collaboration degree measuring model based on the entropy weight method.Building the multi-agent collaboration degree measuring model by using the entropy weight method and determine the weight of each agent.(3)Research on simulation of multi-agent collaboration.,Observe the changes of multi-agent simulation image by adjusting the attribute value of each agent and analyse the change of public mood under different attribute value of agents.The paper proposes to improve the efficiency of multi-agent collaboration strategies based on the analysis of simulation results.(1)Strengthen the government leadership and credibility.Government is the core of the collaboration of emergency rescuing and it should strengthen the leadership and credibility in the emergency rescuing process.(2)Strengthen the mobilization of non-governmental organizations,which make more organizations and individuals join in the emergency rescuing process.(3)Enhance the social responsibility of the company.Make congenital organizational degree and resources advantage of the enterprise play to the greatest extent.(4)Improve the authoritative media information transmission rate.Enhance the transparency of information,satisfy the public demand for emergency rescuing information and eliminate people’s panic and doubts.(5)Raise the enthusiasm of the public in the emergency rescuing process.Encourage more public to join in the process of emergency rescuing.(6)Raise the coordination degree of the agnets.Strengthen communication and collaboration between each agent and reduce all kinds of losses of the public and the society caused by the emergency to the minimum degree.更多还原