【作者】 李楠；

【导师】 戚蓝； 李少明；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 山丘区沿河村落的洪涝灾害现已成为我国自然灾害类型中死亡人数比较多的灾种,一旦发生将造成极大的人员伤亡及经济损失。洪灾风险评价模型对预防和减轻山丘区沿河村落洪涝灾害具有理论研究和工程应用的重要意义。基于此,本文从洪灾风险的承灾体居民房屋这一角度出发,在归纳总结沿河村落洪灾风险指标体系及评价方法的基础上,研究沿河村落自然属性与社会属性的洪灾风险状况,论文的主要内容包括如下四个方面:(1)将国内外近十年核心及以上期刊文献中的洪灾风险评价指标分为自然风险、社会经济风险、技术风险等三方面进行统计分析,并按照指标的名称、隶属关系、表征意义和计算方法进行归纳合并,得到了沿河村落洪灾风险评价的初选指标;在初选指标的基础上,采用频次分析法筛选出具有较高认可度的沿河村落洪灾风险评价关键指标,并根据沿河村落的基本属性和外在属性,构建了包含自然因素、社会经济因素、技术因素三方面的沿河村落风险评价指标体系基本框架。(2)在对各沿河村落的洪灾风险因素进行归纳总结的基础上,发现沿河村落居民房屋是未来洪灾风险评价与防治的目标。在指标体系基本框架的基础上,将熵权-层次分析法引入沿河村落洪灾风险评价中,用评价体系中各准则层洪灾风险状况指数来衡量各准则层的风险状况,并将居民房屋洪水灾害风险程度划分为六个评价等级,来反映居民房屋洪灾风险的整体态势。(3)根据潮埠村在遭遇20年一遇洪水、50年一遇洪水、100年一遇洪水的自然风险因素、技术风险因素、社会经济风险因素等方面的实测资料,以及沿河村落的实际情况,建立了沿河村落潮埠洪灾风险评价指标体系,并采用综合评价模型评价沿河村落潮埠的风险等级状况。(4)评价结果表明:潮埠村居民房屋洪涝灾害风险较高的区域主要集中在荫溪小流域的中下游,潮埠村居民房屋的风险等级大多属于中度,其防洪能力没有达到相应标准。今后潮埠村洪涝灾害防治应在防洪工程建设、河道治理及房屋建设上进行加强。更多还原

【Abstract】 Floods that hit villages along the river in mountainous areas has become one of the natural disasters causing great casualties and economic losses.The risk evaluation model of floods hitting villages along the river is of great significance to the theoretical research and engineering application on prevention and mitigation of the debris flow hazards in mountainous areas.By summarizing index systems and evaluation methods of flood disasters,the natural and social attributes of flood risk conditions in villages along the river in mountainous areas were studied.A flood risk evaluation model was established considering the effects on the hazard-bearing residential houses.The main work of this paper includes the following four aspects:(1)Statistical analysis of flood risk evaluation indexes from credible journals at home and abroad was carried out categorized in natural risk,social economic risk and technical risk.By regrouping the indexes according to their names,membership relationships,the significance and the calculation methods,the primary indexes were selected.Primary indexes were then filtered to get recognizable key indexes using frequency analysis.Focused on the internal and external attributes of villages along the river,a basic framework of the flood risk evaluation index system was established,which includes natural,socio economic and technical factors.(2)Through summarizing key flood risk factors,it was found that the residential houses in villages along the river are the object of basic planning and management in the future.Based on the framework,the entropy weight-analytic hierarchy process was introduced into the flood risk evaluation index system,with flood risk index measuring the risk condition of each criterion layer.The degree of the flood risk of residential houses is divided into six evaluation grades to reflect the overall situation.(3)Regarding natural,social economic and technical factors,the observed data of floods of 20 years,50 years and 100 years return period of Chaobu Villiage was analysed.Based on the actual situation,a Chaobu risk evaluation index system was established and adopted to get a comprehensive evaluation of the risk level of the village.(4)The evaluation results show that the most risky areas of Chaobu Village were mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the small watershed of the Yinxi River.Most residential houses were in the moderate risk level.In general,flood control capacity of Chaobu village cannot meet corresponding standards.Flood prevention and control of should be strengthened in the construction of flood control projects,river treatment and housing construction in the future.更多还原