【作者】 吴迪；

【导师】 刘浩学；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 工程硕士交通运输工程领域（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 危险货物道路运输安全一直是道路运输过程的重要环节,分析预测危险货物道路运输事故概率对掌握其运输风险及采取针对性的风险减缓措施均具有重要现实意义。危险货物道路运输事故预测的目的就是要探究事故与人、车、路、环境等系统之间的相互关系,了解在各个因素的影响的前提下危险货物道路运输事故发生的内在规律,找出影响较大的因素,以期提出有效的运输管理措施,做到在事故发生之前预防事故的发生,减少人员伤亡、财产损失和环境污染。本文通过分析近年来发生的典型危险货物道路运输事故原因,利用SPSS软件对事故原因进行相关性分析的基础上,依据贝叶斯网络的基本理论和方法,基于Matlab语言编写的BNT软件包,选用K2算法对样本数据进行贝叶斯网络的结构学习,运用贝叶斯参数估算方法对其进行参数学习,进而建立了基于贝叶斯网络的危险货物道路运输事故预测模型。同时,使用构建的模型分析了各因素对事故的影响程度,验证模型的准确性。通过模型分析,发现驾驶员车速过快和疏忽大意是对危险货物道路运输事故影响最大的两个因素。在运输车辆上安装定位测速系统,车速超过允许范围后发出警报提醒驾驶员,养成安全驾驶习惯。危险货物运输车辆驾驶员必须取得相应驾驶证及相应的从业资格证,增强驾驶员技能能够有效减少危险货物运输途中因疏忽而导致事故。此外,运输前的车辆及安全设施检查,严禁问题车辆运输,平时注意车辆维护,使车辆及罐体保持健康状态也是提高其运输安全的有效途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The safety and security of road transport of dangerous goods has always been an important part of the transport process, so it is necessary to forecast the probability of dangerous goods transport accident.The goal of dangerous goods road transport accident prediction is to examine the relationship amang traffic accident and the potential factors,including people,vehicle,road and environment, to find out the factors that affect the larger, and to propose effective transport management measures,to prevent the occurrence of accidents before the accident, reduce casualties, property damage and environmental pollution.This paper analyzes the causes of typical dangerous goods road transport accidents in recent years, use SPSS software on the cause of the accident on the basis of correlation analysis. According to the basic theory and method of Bayesian network, the K2 algorithm is used to study the structure of the Bayesian network and the Bayesian parameter estimation method is used to study the parameters with the help of BNT package based on Matlab language,And then established a Bayesian network based dangerous goods road transport accident prediction model. Simultaneously, the model is used to analyze the influence of each factor on the accident, verify the accuracy of the model.Through model analysis, It is found that exceed the speed and the negligence is the two factors that have the greatest impact on the road transport accident of dangerous goods. In the dangerous goods transport vehicles installed on the positioning speed system, when the speed exceeds the allowable range, an alarm is issued to remind the driver, to develop safe driving habits. Dangerous goods transport vehicle driver must obtain the appropriate driver and pass the exam before they can obtain the qualification certificate.Enhanced driver skills can be effectively reduced accidents due to negligence in the transport of dangerous goods. Check the vehicle and safety facilities before each transportation, It is forbidden to transport when the vehicle has some problem, usually pay attention to maintenance of vehicle maintenance, so that the vehicle tank to maintain a healthy state.更多还原