【作者】 王娜；

【导师】 洪涛；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 公共管理， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 城镇化本质上是人口从农村向城市迁移的过程,既为供给方提供了更多的劳动力,也带来了消费需求的持续扩张,对一国经济增长具有重要影响,而影响的显著程度受到人口流动源头——农村发展水平的制约。中国是一个发展中国家,城镇化的进程远未完成,在未来很长一段时期内,城镇化仍将是中国经济社会发展中的核心问题之一。从农村教育的角度出发探讨城镇化对经济增长的影响效应及作用机理,有助于理解如何从根源上保证城镇化能够长时间释放对经济增长的积极影响,对中国经济实现可持续发展具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。首先,根据托达罗人口流动模型与集聚经济理论,从供给侧与需求侧两个角度分析城镇化对经济增长的影响机制,在此基础上分析农村教育在城镇化影响经济增长过程中的作用,最后介绍中国城镇化的演变轨迹和城镇化与经济增长的现状。其次,本文采用2000-2012年全国31个省份的面板数据,构建面板数据模型进行实证分析,估计城镇化对经济增长的总体影响效应及区域间差异,在此基础之上,加入农村教育指标进行分析,论证农村教育在城镇化影响经济增长过程中的作用。为避免流动人口来源造成的估计偏差,本文还利用第五次和第六次人口普查中人口流动数据进行了稳健性检验。最后,采用2014年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,利用29个省市劳动力样本的受教育程度、收入、就业类型等数据,基于描述性统计和Logit模型分析城镇化对经济增长影响的微观机制及农村教育的作用,包括个人的学习能力、收入水平、职业选择等。研究结果表明,从全国样本估计来看,城镇化显著影响经济增长,农村教育在城镇化影响经济增长过程中的作用显著。从区域间差异来看,城镇化对经济增长的影响呈现了“东部显著程度最小、中西部较大且显著程度相似”的特征,与东部地区相比,中西部地区农村教育在城镇化影响经济增长过程的作用比较显著。从供给侧作用机制来看,农村教育水平提高会促进人力资本积累和产业结构升级,从需求侧作用机制来看,农村教育水平提高会刺激消费,拉动投资,在城镇化影响经济增长过程中发挥着重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urbanization is essentially the process of population migration from rural to urban,providing both the supply side with more labor force and the continuous expansion of consumer demand,which has an important impact on the economic growth of a country.And the degree of significant impact is constrained by the source of population flows-the level of rural development.China is a developing country,the process of urbanization is far from complete,in the future for a long period of time,urbanization will continue to be one of the core issues in Chinese economic and social development.From the perspective of rural education to explore the impact of urbanization on economic growth and the mechanism of action,help to understand how to ensure that the root causes of urbanization can be a long time to release the positive impact on economic growth,which is of great theoretical and practical value to the sustainable development of Chinese economic.Firstly,according to the Todaro model and the theory of agglomeration economy,the paper analyzes the influence of urbanization on economic growth from the supply side and the demand side.On this basis,it analyzes the role of rural education in the process of urbanization affecting economic growth,and finally introduces the evolution of urbanization in China and the status of urbanization and economic growth.Secondly,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2012 to construct the panel data model to estimate the overall impact of urbanization on economic growth and regional differences.On this basis,the paper analyzes the rural education index,and demonstrates the role of rural education in the process of urbanization affecting economic growth.In order to avoid the estimated deviations caused by the floating population,this paper also conducted a robust test using the population flow data in the fifth and sixth censuses.Finally,using the data of the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey(CLDS)in 2014,including the data of education level,income and employment type of labor samples in 29 provinces and cities.Using these data to analyze the micro-mechanism of the impact of urbanization on economic growth and the role of rural education based on descriptive statistics and Logit model,including personal learning ability,income level,career choice and so on.The results show that urbanization has a significant impact on economic growth,and rural education has a significant effect in the process of urbanization affecting economic growth.From the perspective of regional differences,the impact of urbanization on economic growth shows the characteristics:urbanization in the eastern region has little effect on economic growth,and urbanization in the central and western regions has a greater impact on economic growth.Comparing with the eastern region,the rural education in the central and western regions has a significant effect on theprocess of urbanization affecting economic growth.From the supply side of the mechanism of action,the improvement of rural education will promote the accumulation of human capital and industrial structure upgrade,from the demand side of the mechanism of action,the level of rural education will stimulate consumption,pull investment,and play tan important role in the process of urbanization affecting economic growth.更多还原