【作者】 魏静；

【导师】 马智利；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 根据国家卫计委《2015年中国流动人口发展报告》显示,截至2014年年底,全国流动人口为2.53亿人,占总人口的18.5%,比上年增加3.3%,预计到2020年,我国的流动人口将逐步增长到2.91亿,年均增长600万人左右。人口流动规模的不断增加对城市间的财富分配以及经济发展有着重要的影响作用,而对于城市房地产业来说,“人”作为城市住宅的最终需求者以及使用者,人口流入所带来的人口数量以及人口结构的变化对城市住宅的需求将产生重要的影响,进而决定城市住宅价格的发展走向。因此,本文研究人口流入对城市住宅价格的影响具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,在前人研究的基础上,先从理论上推导出人口流入对城市住宅价格的影响机理,然后运用计量经济模型对我国35个大中城市的面板数据进行实证研究。通过理论与实证研究分析得出以下结论:从区域层面来说,不管是东部城市、中部城市还是西部城市,其人口流入对城市住宅价格的影响作用均是正向显著的,但东部城市人口流入对城市住宅价格的影响程度普遍高于中部城市和西部城市;从全国层面来说,人口流入对其城市住宅价格影响也是正向显著的,实证结果与理论推导具有一致性。因此,不管是从理论分析还是实证分析来说,人口流入对城市住宅价格有正向影响作用是恰当并具有普遍现实意义的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The China Population Development Report in 2015 which published by The People’s Republic of China National Health and Family Planning Commission shows that as of the end of 2014,there are 253 million national floating population,accounting for 18.5% of the total population,it has an increase of 3.3% over last year.And the number of floating population will gradually increase to 291 million by 2020,with an average annual growth rate of about 6 million.The increasing of floating population has an important effect on the distribution of wealth and economic development in city,and for the real estate industry,because people are the final demanders and city residential users,so the change of population and the population structure resulted from population inflow will have an important effect on demand for city house,and even have an important influence on development trend of city housing prices.Therefore,this paper will study the impact of population inflow on city housing prices.This paper adopts the theoretical research and empirical research method,on the basis of previous studies,this paper firstly discusses the mechanism of population inflow to city housing prices through theoretical research,and then has the empirical research on relationship between population inflow on city housing prices in 35 cities by using the econometric model.There are some conclusions in this paper: firstly,from a regional perspective,whether it is the eastern city,central city or the western city,the population inflow influences the city housing prices,and it is positive,but the impact of population inflow in the eastern city of city housing prices is generally higher than the central city and the City from the West;secondly,from the national level,the influence of population inflow on the city housing price is significantly positive.In generally,the empirical results are consistent with theoretical derivation.So the impact of population inflow on city housing prices is appropriate and has universal practical significance.更多还原