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基于风险检验技术的城市燃气管网风险管理研究

Research on Risk Management of Urban Gas Network Based on Risk Inspection Technology

【作者】 李海霞

【导师】 董瑞芝; 邹碧海;

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学(华东) , 项目管理(专业学位), 2014, 硕士

【摘要】 城市燃气管网与城市供电系统、供水管网和交通道路一起构成了现代城市的公共基础设施,也是城市生命线的重要组成之一。但是城市生命线燃气管网因长期运行、材料腐蚀老化、环境变迁、系统扩容和城市化进程的迅速发展等因素极易发生突发性、灾难性事故,城市燃气管网的安全可靠性问题变得愈来愈严重。因此,城市燃气管网安全问题引起工业界及学术界的高度重视,开展城市燃气管网的风险管理研究具有重要的意义和价值。论文以重庆江北某区域内的燃气管网为例,建立城市燃气管网失效树模型,得出了导致管道失效的主要原因是管道土壤腐蚀严重和管材抗腐蚀性能较差。另外,还采用基于风险检验(Risk Based Inspection,RBI)技术,对区域内的8条主燃气管道进行了定量风险分析,得出各管道的失效可能性等级和失效后果等级,并对风险等级进行排序,得出8条管道中处于低风险的管道4条,中风险的管道2条,中高风险和高风险的管道各1条。制定了基于风险检验的城市燃气管网的检测周期和维修规划,从而科学制定风险防范措施,实现经济效益的最大化,使安全与效益达到最佳状态的统一,为城市生命线燃气管网的预防维修管理和防范对策提供依据。

【Abstract】 City gas pipe network,as well as city power system,ductwork of water supply and traffic road,which is public infrastructure of modern city,is one of great importance for urban lifeline.Because of factors such as long-term operation,material corrosion and aging,environmental transition,system expansion and the fast expansion of city,etc,city gas pipe network tends to face potential emergent and disastrous accident.So it is necessary to guarantee the security and reliability of city gas pipe network.Security problems of city gas pipe network have attracted much attention in industrial and academic circles.It is of great significance and value to carry out a risk management of city gas pipeline network.This article takes the city gas pipe network in a region of Jiangbei District,Chongqing city as an example.A failure tree diagram of city gas pipe network is established,the model gives the main causes of the failure of pipes which include severe corrosion of pipeline in soil and poor resistance to corrosion of the material of pipes.In addition,RBI technology is used to analyze the risks of 8 pipes in the region quantitatively.The possibility grade of failure and that of failure consequence are given in this analysis.Through sorting the risk grades,it can be concluded that in all the 8 pipes,4 are in low risk,2 in medium risk,1 in extremely high risk,1 in high risk.The testing period and maintenance plan based on risk inspection of city gas pipe network are made,which can help to develop risk warning approach scientifically,achieve the maximum of economic benefits,make optimal unification of security and benefits,apply preventive maintenance management and take early warning preventive measures for city gas pipe network.

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