【作者】 王军；

【导师】 杨建平；

【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 ， 工程管理， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球能源的减少和保护环境压力的增大,人们急需可再生能源来代替储量低、污染严重的常规能源。在可再生能源领域内光伏发电发展迅速,现发展成为最大的可再生能源产业。随着光伏发电的利用,煤炭和石油使用量减少,能源结构优化,对节能减排、大气污染防治效果显著。现阶段光伏发电项目在中国经济发展中具有重要的作用,对其进行经济效益与风险评价非常重要,但光伏发电项目的经济效益与风险评价在现行发布的经济评价方法中没有确切的规定。本文研究的目的是通过不同的评价指标构建适合于光伏发电项目的经济效益与风险评价指标体系,为光伏发电项目的建设提供科学的决策依据。在介绍本文研究背景及目的基础上,对经济效益评价理论和方法进行阐述,并具体说明了财务评价指标和方法、国民经济评价指标和方法、不确定性分析的方法和内容、层次分析法的涵义和风险评价步骤等。最后以GH县20MW光伏发电项目为实例,在介绍项目建设环境与方案分析的基础上,进行项目的投资估算;然后从项目的总成本费用、发电效益和敏感性三指标进行分析研究;并对项目的清偿能力、盈利能力、财务生存能力进行了评价。此外,为保证项目经济评价准确性,采用AHP法对影响项目经济的风险因素进行评价。通过评价可知:光伏发电项目符合国家产业政策和可持续发展战略,不但具有较好的经济效益和社会效益,而且有良好的抗风险能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the pressure of the global energy crisis and the environmental protection,using the renewable energy resources become the necessity,instead of the low-stocked and seriously-polluted conventional energy resources.The solar photovoltaic power generation(shortly for PV)leaps forward in the field of renewable energy,and becoming of the largest renewable energy industry.Usage of PV can deduct coral and oil usage,optimize the energy structure,play a significant role in energy-saving,emission-reduction and air pollution prevention.Nowadays,PV weighs heavily in the Chinese economy development.The economic benefit evaluation and economic risk assessment of PV seems especially important.However,we can’t find any criterion about the economic benefit evaluation and economic risk assessment in the current economic evaluation method.The purpose of this thesis is constructing the economic benefit evaluation and economic risk assessment system through different evaluating indicator,which is suitable for PV projects.On the basis of analyzing the research background and purpose,the thesis states the theory and method of the economic benefit evaluation,specifying the financial evaluation index and method,national economy evaluation index and method,uncertainty analysis method and content,the meaning of analytic hierarchy process and risk assessment procedures,etc.Finally,the thesis takes an example of the 20 MW PV projects in GH County.First of all,the thesis introduces the construction environment,analyses the plan and estimates the investment.Then,the thesis makes research in analyzing the three index: the project total cost,generation benefit and sensibility.At last,the thesis estimates the project repayment ability,generating profitability and financial viability.In order to ensure the accuracy of project economic evaluation,the thesis adopts the AHP method on the risk factor evaluation,which influences the project economy.After this estimation,the thesis comes to a conclusion that: PV project conforms to the national industrial policy and the strategy of sustainable development;PV project not only has great economic and social benefits,but also has great ability to resist risks.更多还原