【作者】 刘萍；

【导师】 王新平； 景六刚；

【作者基本信息】 西安科技大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 当前,我国经济发展模式已进入了中高速发展的新常态,经济正处于“三期叠加”时期,煤炭产业随之进入“四期并存”的新阶段,煤炭产业发展必须适应新形势要求。为妥善应对煤炭产业下行压力,保障煤炭产业持续健康发展,本文主要基于当前煤炭产业产能过剩这一实际背景,旨在研究中国煤炭产业发展战略。基于对世界能源产业发展趋势、煤炭产业发展现状和煤炭产业发展战略三方面的文献综述,全面分析了中国煤炭产业发展的战略环境,并通过系统动力学思想和情景分析法重点模拟仿真了煤炭产业市场供需及煤炭产能的变动趋势,并据此提出了煤炭产业发展的战略及政策建议。一是基于煤炭资源与产能现状,通过PEST方法,从政治和法律环境、经济环境、技术环境以及社会文化和生态环境四方面对经济新常态下中国煤炭产业发展的宏观环境进行了详细分析;通过SWOT方法,阐述了煤炭产业当前面临的有利和不利因素;通过对煤炭产业发展所处的内、外部战略环境进行具体探析,对目前煤炭产业的发展前景有了准确明晰的定位。二是建立了中国煤炭产业发展的SD模型,将影响中国煤炭产业发展的经济、资源环境、人口等的相关因素纳入模型,以GDP、人口总量、煤炭产能、煤炭价格作为水平变量,以年GDP变化量、年人口增加值、年淘汰落后产能、煤炭价格变化量作为控制变量,并通过了系统的量纲一致性和拟合度检验。通过VensimPLE软件对模型进行系统仿真,结合研究目的,重点分析了我国煤炭市场供需及煤炭产能的变化趋势。三是采用情景分析法,划定了基准情景,设置了煤炭消费比重降低、煤炭强度降低、煤炭进口量降低和落后产能淘汰率加大四种不同的仿真情景,对煤炭产业发展的SD模型进行模拟仿真,重点分析了 2011-2030年不同情景对于煤炭产能过剩的调控作用。模拟仿真结果表明,就不同情景对煤炭过剩产能的调控力度而言,降低煤炭强度和降低煤炭消费对于煤炭产能过剩有一定的调控作用,但并不显著,增大落后产能淘汰率对产能的调节作用最明显,其次是减少煤炭进口量。最后,基于煤炭产业发展战略环境的分析,确立了中国煤炭产业发展的指导思想、总体战略目标及战略选择;对应不同模拟情景,依次从调整能源消费结构、提高煤炭利用效率、推进煤炭国际贸易和优化煤炭产能结构四方面对当前我国煤炭产业发展提出了相应的政策建议,为我国煤炭产业发展提供了参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,the macro-economic development pattern in China has entered the new normal of High-speed development.Due to "three-period superposition" of the global financial crisis,the decline in energy prices and the domestic macro-economic,the coal industry also entered a new period of "four phase coexistence":demand growth slowdown,advanced production capacity and inventory digestion,environmental constraint enhancement and the crucial period of structural adjustment.Developing the coal industry must convert the traditional development model of quantity,speed and extensive to the new model of quality,efficiency and intensive to adapt to the current situation.In order to properly cope with the downward pressure on the coal industry and ensure the sustainable and healthy development of coal industry,based on the actual background of the coal industry overcapacity,this paper studied the development strategy of China’s coal industry.Based on summering the research status from domestic and international in three aspects of development trend of world energy industry,development status of coal industry and coal industry development strategy,the strategic environment of China’s coal industry development was comprehensively analyzed.By the system dynamics and scenario analysis,the trend of the supply and demand and the coal production capacity were simulated emphatically.Consequently the strategy and policy suggestion of coal industry development were put forward.Firstly,according to the analysis of the current situation of coal industry development,through the PEST analysis,the macro environment for the development of China coal industry under the new normal economic from the political and legal factors,economic factors,technological factors,sociocultural and ecological factors was analyzed in detail;Through the SWOT analysis,the strengths and weaknesses,opportunities and threats of China’s coal industry were analyzed;By analyzing the internal and external strategic environment of the coal industry development,this paper defined the favorable and unfavorable factors existing in the development process of the coal industry,then the development prospect of China’s coal industry has been clearly defined.Secondly,the SD model of China’s coal industry development was established by Vensim PLE software,and it took the related factors affecting development of the coal industry,including the economic,resource environment,the population,into account;Taking GDP,the total population,coal production capacity and coal price as the level variables;taking the annual GDP change,the annual population growth,the elimination of backward production capacity and the coal price change as the control variables.The SD model passed dimensional consistency test and goodness-of-fit test Combined with the purpose,the simulation by Vensim PLE software focused on the analysis of supply,demand and production capacity of China’s coal industry.Thirdly,by scenario analysis,this paper set the baseline scenario and divided four different simulation scenarios of reducing the coal consumption proportion,reducing the coal intensity,reducing the coal imports and increasing the elimination rate of backward production capacity to analyze the regulation countermeasures.Then the coal industry development SD model is simulated.The regulating effect of different scenarios on coal production overcapacity from 2011 to 2030 was stressed.The simulation result showed that for the different scenarios on the regulation of coal overcapacity,reducing the coal intensity and the coal consumption proportion for coal overcapacity have some effects on the regulation,but not significant;in contrast,the effect of increasing the elimination rate of backward production capacity is the most obvious,followed by the coal imports reduction.Finally,Based on the analysis of the strategic environment of the coal industry development,this paper puts forward the guiding ideology,the overall strategic target and the strategic choice of China’s coal industry development;Corresponding to the four different scenarios of the simulation results,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from adjusting the energy consumption structure,improving coal utilization efficiency,promoting the international coal trade and optimizing the coal production structure and it provides a reference for China’s coal industry development.更多还原