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基于社会网络分析的中国电影项目总票房实证研究

Social Network Analysis on the Box Office Performance of Movie Projects in China:An Empirical Study

【作者】 林森

【导师】 寿涌毅;

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2017, 硕士

【摘要】 自1993年我国开展影视行业产业化改革以来,我国电影产业迅猛发展,并取得了令人瞩目的票房成绩。电影产业以项目为导向的网络化组织特征明显。本文尝试采用社会网络分析的方法,对我国电影公司合作社会网络结构特征、电影项目社会资本与项目绩效(总票房)之间的关系进行探究,从而为电影票房的研究提供新的视角。本文以我国2015-2016年间成功上映的所有国产电影为样本,进行了以下两方面研究。研究一:基于项目合作的电影公司社会网络结构分析。首先构建电影公司合作社会网络,然后借助UCINET、GEPHI软件分别进行整体网络结构分析、各环节公司网络地位分析及主要公司网络地位分析。研究二:电影项目社会资本对电影总票房影响研究。首先基于相关文献,为每个电影项目在电影公司社会网络(研究一中建立该网络)中所拥有的结构维度社会资本构建完整的理论框架,做出其对电影票房的影响假设;然后,选取传统经济学研究视角中影响电影票房的相关因素作为控制变量,借助SPSS软件对假设进行回归分析。研究表明:(1)我国电影公司合作社会网络整体上呈现低密度、高联通的“链条”特征。(2)目前传统的制作及发行环节在我国电影产业中仍处于最核心地位。(3)网络中公司地位分布极不均匀;网络最核心的位置仍被华夏及中影两家国企占据,同时大量新兴互联网公司发展迅猛。(4)传统票房影响因素的回归中,本文验证了前人大量验证过的一些显著因素,包括网络口碑(对数关注人数)、制作成本、内容熟悉程度(续集)、网络口碑(电影评分);排除了一些争议性因素,包括主创阵容(演员)、档期、技术效果(3D)。除此之外也产生了一些新结论。(5)最终回归分析表明,电影项目中公司平均结构洞水平越高,电影总票房越高;同时公司平均接近中心度水平越高,电影总票房越高;而公司相互之间的结构对等度、电影项目所含公司数量(规模)以及公司间的合作历史(密度)对电影总票房没有显著影响。最后本文结合产业特点与研究结论提出政策建议如下:(1)我国电影相关公司应根据自身发展阶段选择适合的对外合作模式,积极拓展与新公司的合作联系。(2)初入我国电影行业的企业应该积极探索与核心企业的合作。(3)电影产业中的民营企业应该加强与以中影、华夏为代表的较强国有企业的合作。(4)电影公司应加强互联网布局。(5)电影制作公司应着重提升影片内容质量。(6)我国电影相关部门应加强对小公司的扶持。(7)我国电影相关部门应加强对营销服务公司的扶持。(8)我国电影相关部门应制定统一的电影分类标准。

【Abstract】 China’s film industry has developed rapidly from the beginning of the industrialization reform in 1993 and has reached remarkable achievements at the box office.The film industry is characterized by the project oriented network organization.This paper applies the method of social network analysis on the features of the company cooperation social network structure as well as the relationships between social capital and project performance(box office)in the movie projects,so as to provide a new perspective for the study of the movie box office.Based on the sample data of Chinese films which were successfully released in China during 2015-2016,the paper carries on the research from the following two aspects.The first research aspect:Analysis of the film company social network structure which based on the cooperation of projects.The paper first constructs the cooperation social network of the film companies.Then,UCINET and GEPHI are used to do analysis on the whole network structure,the network position of companies in all segments and the network positions of key companies.The second research aspect:Impact of social capital on the total box office of movie projects.First,on the basis of relevant literature,the paper constructs complete theoretical framework for the social capital of the structural dimension owned by every movie project in the film company social network and makes hypotheses about the impact factors of the box office.Then,paper chooses the factors from the traditional study of box office as the control variables and applies SPSS to do regression analysis on hypotheses.The result shows:(1)The social network of China’s film company cooperation has a"chain" characteristic with low density and high connectivity.(2)The traditional film production and film distribution are still in the core position of the film industry in China.(3)The companies have an uneven distribution of positions in the network;The core of the network is still occupied by two state-owned enterprises,Huaxia Film Distribution Co.,Ltd.and China Film Group Corporation.At the same time,a large number of emerging Internet companies are developing rapidly.(4)In the regression of traditional influence factors of movie box,the paper verifies some significant factors that has been verified by previous relevant studies,including word-of-mouse,production cost and content familiarity;Some controversial factors have been ruled out,including main cast(actors),theater schedule,technical effect(3D).Also,some new conclusions are provided.(5)The final regression analysis shows that the higher the average level of structural autonomy in the film project is,the higher the film box office will be.At the same time,the higher the average level of the closeness centrality is,the higher the film box office will be.Also,the structural equivalence between companies,the number(size)of companies involved in the film project,and the history of cooperation between companies(density)have no significant impact on the movie box office.Finally,according to the industrial characteristics and conclusions of the research,the paper comes up with the following policy recommendations:(1)China’s film related companies should choose appropriate cooperation strategies according to their own stage of development,and expand the cooperation relationships with the new companies actively.(2)Companies newly entering the film industry in China should actively seek cooperation with core enterprises.(3)The private companies in the film industry should strengthen the cooperation with the Chinese state-owned enterprises like Huaxia Film Distribution Co.,Ltd.and China Film Group Corporation.(4)Movie companies should increase Internet distribution.(5)Film production companies should focus on improving the quality of film content.(6)China’s film related departments should strengthen the support for small companies.(7)China’s film related departments should strengthen the support for marketing service companies.(8)China’s film related departments should develop a unified film classification standard.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 浙江大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2018年 02期
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