【作者】 张博；

【导师】 孙希波；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 公共管理， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 党的十八大报告中首次用“农业转移人口”替代了“农民工”,并明确指出让“农业转移人口”共享城镇化利益,有序推进农业转移人口市民化。我国农业转移人口是完成新型城镇化最重要也是最为脆弱的群体,规模庞大、地区分布和行业分布都较为广泛的特性使他们很容易成为社会稳定风险的高发群体。黑龙江省作为农业人口比重较大的省份,更加需要科学合理地评估社会稳定风险并有针对性地控制风险。本文利用科学的方法对黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化的社会稳定风险进展开评价和分析,这对政府控制社会稳定风险有重要的理论和实践意义。首先本文对黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化现状进行了系统地梳理,从市民化特点出发,深入分析了市民化中出现的的社会问题以及产生原因。其次,借助扎根理论的译码过程识别社会稳定风险因素,构建风险评价指标体系,包括政治风险、经济风险、自然风险、社会风险、制度风险、传播风险和心理感知风险7个一级指标和19个二级指标。再次,根据专家打分收集的评价数据,利用AHP-模糊综合评价方法建立黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化的社会稳定风险评价模型,实证分析得出社会稳定风险正处于中风险水平。最后,结合以往政府治理经验,针对风险重要程度,分别从特色产业开发、就业培训机制、制度环境、城市融入、政府责任以及重点产业等方面提出符合黑龙江省农业转移人口市民化特色的风险控制建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China replaces "Migrant Workers"with"Agricultural Transfering Population"for the first time,and puts forward clearly that allowing them to share interests of urbanization,granting urban residency in an orderly manner to rural people who have moved to cities.Agricultural transfering population is the most important and the most vulnerable groups in the process of new-type urbanization,this kind of population is big,working in various regions and industries,easily become a high incidence group of socialstability risk.As a large proportion of agricultural population ,Heilongjiang province need more scientific and reasonable social stability risk assessment and targeted risk control .Using scientific methods to assess the level of social stability risk during agricultural transfering population urbanization in Heilongjiang province,has important theoretical and practical significance for the social stability risk control.Firstly,the arcticle systematically reviews citizenization status of agricultural transfering population of Heilongjiang province.From the urbanization characteristics,thorough analyze the social problems and causes occurred in the urbanization.Then,identify risk factors for social stability with the help of a decoding process of grounded theory ,and on this basis,establish the social stability risk evaluation index system of agricultural transfering population’s citizenization process,including seven primary index,such as political risk,economic risk, Natural risk, social risk, system risk,communication risk and psychological perception risk ;And nineteen their subordinate secondary risk factors.Again,according to the evaluation data collected by expert scoring ,establish social stability risk assessment model of agriculture transfering population citizenization of heilongjiang province by using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method .The empirical analysis concludes that social stability risk is at medium level .Finally, combine the experience of previous government governance,in view of the important degree of the social stability risk,making suggestions about social stability risk control of heilongjiang province in the process of agricultural transfering population citizenization.更多还原