【作者】 姚勇；

【导师】 杨春萍； 郑江；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学(北京) ， 工程硕士（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 电力通信网是电力系统运行和管理的通信专网,是为了保证电力系统安全稳定运行而产生的电力系统的重要基础设施,具有明显的行业特色和特殊的安全可靠性要求。电力通信网的安全评估现已成为电力通信系统的重要问题,将其作为电力通信网安全运营的重要手段。本文针对电力通信网的风险评估,通过对其研究背景及意义、国内外研究现状阐述的基础上,介绍了风险概念、风险评估、电力通信网技术及风险评估、电力通信网风险评估方法及评估体系的建立方法,采用两种方法对电力通信网进行风险评估,包括基于层次分析法和基于BP神经网络的风险评估法。其中,对于基于层次分析法的电力通信网风险评估,首先对层次分析法的原理进行了阐述,为基于层次分析法的电力通信网风险评估提供理论基础。在进行电力通信网风险因素分析的基础上,确定了风险评估的指标体系,进而对指标体系的筛选、有效性和可靠性验证方法进行阐述,为电力通信网风险评估指标体系的科学性和系统性建立提供保障,最后运用层次分析法对电力通信网的计算结果进行分析,得到了进一步完善的电力通信网风险评估指标体系。对于BP神经网络的电力通信网风险评估,首先介绍了 BP神经网络理论的原理、网络结构,并采用各种算法来进行BP神经网络的输入层、隐含层和输出层的确定,进一步进行基于BP神经网络的电力通信网风险评估模型的建立,最后对所建立的风险评估模型进行训练和测试。总的来说,本文为电力通信网风险评估的方法进行了系统性的研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 Power communication network is the private communication network of power system operation and management, which is critical infrastructure of electric power system to ensure the safety and stability of power system operations. It has obvious characteristics of the industry and specific safety and reliability requirements. The risk assessment of power communication network has been an important problem of electric power communication system and an important means of electric power communication network safe operation.The communication management departments have paid high attention to security assessments of electric power communication network and have taken risk assessments .as an important step to achieve safe operations of power communication network management.On the basis of elaboration of research background and significance, domestic and overseas current research, this paper introduces the concept of risk, risk assessment methods, technology of power communication network, relevant risk assessment issue, methods of establishing power communication network risk assessment methodologies and evaluation system, using two methods of power communication network risk assessments, one based on AHP and the other based on BP neural network.For power communication network risk assessment based on AHP, the paper introduces principle of AHP first, which provides the theoretical basis for the risk assessment. On the basis of power communication network risk factor analysis, the index system of risk assessment is determined, and elaborated further in aspects of screening, validity and reliability verification methods, which guarantees the index system scientific and systemic. Lastly, the calculation results are analyzed basing AHP, and index system is further improved.For risk assessment of electric power communication network based on BP neural network, the paper firstly introduces the principle of BP neural network theory,network structure, and uses a variety of algorithms to determine the input layer, the hidden layer and output layer of BP neural network, and further establishes electric power communication network risk assessment model basing BP neural network,then proceeds training and testing on the model lastly.Overall, this paper provides systematic research on methods of power communication network risk assessment.更多还原