【作者】 陈伟；

【导师】 文建东；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 西方经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 本文通过对《道路交通安全法》及其配套法规所涉及的“交通事故归责原则”、“机动车事故强制责任保险”、“交通罚款制度”和“违章扣分制度”等四项制度进行理论分析,得出:“交通事故归责原则”和“机动车事故强制责任保险”的规定将降低行为人的预防激励,从而导致交通事故增多;“交通罚款制度”和“违章扣分制度”的规定将提高行为人的预防激励,从而导致交通事故减少。实证分析中,驾驶员的驾龄显著为负、道路密度显著为负、高速公路占比显著为负、教育水平显著为负、人均啤酒产量显著为正,符合预期;道路运输强度,并不显著,且符号主要为负,说明其作用较小。本文关注的核心变量管理强度(人均罚没收入)显著为负,符合预期;车均保费对于交通状况的作用并不显著,当期保费的符号为正,滞后一期保费的符号为负,结合理论部分关于保险的讨论,从符号角度看,符合理论预期。将2003、2004年作为哑变量作为截距引入实证模型中,就政策角度而言,《道路交通安全法》及其配套法规对交通事故可能具有显著的负向作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,through the theoretical analysis of the "Traffic Accident Liability Principle","Compulsory Insurance for Traffic Accident of Motor-driven Vehicle","Traffic Penalty System",and "Point-record System" of "Road Traffic Safety Law",we have come to the following conclusions:the stipulation of "Traffic Accident Liability Principle" and "Compulsory Insurance for Traffic Accident of Motor-driven Vehicle" will cause more traffic accidents,and on the contrary,the "Traffic Penalty System" and "Point-record System" will reduce the traffic accidents.Through the empirical analysis,the "driver’s driving experience",the "road density",the "ratio of expressway",the "education level" are significantly negative,while the "per capita beer output" is significantly positive,which are in conform to the expectation;the "road transport intensity" is insignificantly negative,indicating its insignificant role.Most importantly,"management intensity(per capita penalty income)",one of the core variables,is significantly negative;"Motor Insurance Premiums" is not significant,the current premium symbol is positive,and the lagging is negative,which is expected as the theoretical discussion part of Insurance.In the case of 2003,2004 as a dummy variable as an intercept,Traffic Laws probably have a significant negative effect on the traffic accident in terms of policy.更多还原