【作者】 李晓东；

【导师】 于潇；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随着社会经济的发展,吉林省交通运输得到了长足的发展与进步,其在社会经济发展和人民生活水平的提高过程中,发挥着越来越大的作用,很大程度上决定了省内社会经济的发展程度。综合交通运输系统主要由水路运输系统、公路汽车运输系统、铁路运输系统和民航运输系统组成,是社会发展的基础产业,研究吉林省综合交通运输的需求预测对省内乃至与周边省市的发展十分重要。本文对综合交通运输需求预测的研究主要包括两个方面:(1)省内客货需求预测;(2)客货需求空间分布预测。其中,吉林省客货需求预测包括由铁路、公路、水运和民航四种方式构成的客运总运量和客运总周转量预测、铁路、公路和水运三种方式构成,以及上述客货方式的客货运量和客货周转量结构预测。本文共分六章进行论述,分别是绪论、吉林省客货需求现状分析、吉林省客货需求分布现状分析、吉林省客货需求预测、吉林省客货需求分析预测和通道预测以及结论。本文以2000年以来的经济数据为基础,分析了吉林省经济发展现状,包括产业结构、重点产业和人民生活基本情况等,并以此确定吉林省客货需求分布预测思路。结合吉林省客货需求现状的分析,确定吉林省客货需求分布现状,重点分析了公路和铁路在省内市州内、市州间,以及吉林省和省外各区域间的客货运需求分布,在此基础上建立科学的数学模型。同时,以“十二五”期间吉林省和各市州的经济增长为基础,考虑哈长城市群规划、吉林省西部生态经济区总体规划、吉林省东部绿色转型发展区总体规划、长吉图规划和长吉图产业发展规划等,确定吉林省客货运需求分布预测,从而论证吉林省交通规划“三纵三横”的总体结构,合理配置公共基础设施资源,满足吉林省经济发展需要。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of social economy,transportation and transportation in Jilin Province has been developed and progressed greatly.It has played an increasingly important role in the process of social and economic development and improvement of people’s living standard.The degree of socio-economic development.The integrated transportation system is mainly composed of waterway transportation system,highway automobile transportation system,railway transportation system and civil aviation transportation system,which is the basic industry of social development.It is necessary to study the demand forecast of integrated transportation in Jilin province and the development of neighboring provinces and cities Very important.In this paper,the research on the forecast of comprehensive transportation demand mainly includes two aspects:(1)forecasting of passenger and cargo demand in the province;and(2)forecasting the spatial distribution of passenger and freight demand.Among them,Jilin Province passenger and cargo demand forecast,including railways,highways,water transport and civil aviation in four ways constitute the total passenger volume and passenger volume forecast,rail,road and water transport in three ways,as well as the above passenger and cargo Forecast of Freight Volume and Passenger and Freight Turnover Structure.This paper is divided into six chapters,which are the introduction,the present situation of passenger and freight demand in Jilin Province,the analysis of passenger and cargo demand distribution in Jilin Province,the forecast of passenger and freight demand in Jilin Province,the analysis and forecast of passenger and freight demand in Jilin Province,and the prediction of channel and conclusion.Based on the economic data since 2000,this paper analyzes the current situation of economic development in Jilin Province,including the industrial structure,key industries and the basic situation of people’s life,and to determine the forecasting of passenger and freight demand distribution in Jilin Province.Based on the analysis of the current situation of passenger and freight demand in Jilin Province,the present situation of passenger and cargo demand distribution in Jilin Province was determined,and the distribution of passenger and freight demand between highway and railway in the provinces,municipalities and provinces of Jilin Province and provinces,On this basis to establish a scientific mathematical model.At the same time,based on the economic growth of Jilin Province and municipalities during the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,considering the planning of Harbin-Changsha urban agglomeration,the overall planning of western Jilin eco-economic zone,the overall planning of green transformation and development area in eastern Jilin Province,And Changji map industry development plan,to determine the distribution of passenger and freight demand forecast in Jilin Province,Jilin Province,to prove the overall planning of the "three vertical and three horizontal" overall structure,rational allocation of public infrastructure resources to meet the economic development needs of Jilin Province.更多还原