【作者】 吴智龙；

【导师】 王吓忠；

【作者基本信息】 福州大学 ， 房地产（专业学位）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 投资决策直接影响着房地产项目开发的风险和收益,房地产投资具有高风险和高不确定性的特征。因此,提高房地产经营企业投资决策的科学性具有重要意义。.灰色系统理论是一种研究少数据、贫信息、不确定问题的新方法,它是以“部分信息已知,部分信息未知”的“小样本”、“贫信息”的不确定性系统为研究对象,通过对部分已知信息的生成,提取有价值的信息,实现对系统演化规律、运行行为的正确描述和有效监控。本文首先从房地产投资的含义和特点谈起,重点分析了房地产投资决策的目标、类型、方法、步骤等,并对房地产投资风险进行了介绍。从房地产经营企业的角度出发,将灰色系统理论引入到房地产投资决策过程中,构建其相应的灰色数学模型,对房地产投资决策进行量化分析和探讨。通过精心选取的鄱阳县房地产项目进行实证分析,针对投资决策过程中的内部规划、价格预测、销量预测等主要问题进行了研究分析,最后得出模型可靠性的结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 Investment decision-making is directly affecting the real estate project development risk and return on investment,real estate investment has high risk and high uncertainty characteristics.Therefore,it is of great significance to improve the scientific nature of the real estate business enterprise investment decision.Grey system theory is a new method to study the few data and poor information,uncertain problem,which is based on "part information known,part information unknown" "small sample","poor information"uncertain system as the research object,through the generation of some known information,extract valuable information.To achieve the correct description and effective monitoring of evolution,running on the system.Firstly,this paper analyzes the objectives,types,methods,steps of real estate investment decision-making,and introduces the risk of real estate investment..Starting from the angle of real estate enterprises,grey system theory introduced into the real estate investment decision-making process,construct the corresponding grey mathematical model,the investment decision of the real estate is quantified analysis and discussion.By carefully selecting the Poyang County real estate projects empirical analysis,has carried on the analysis in view of the main problems in the investment decision-making process of internal planning,price forecast,sales forecast,and to draw conclusions of the reliability of the model.更多还原