【作者】 李刚；

【导师】 张驰； 李迎春；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输工程（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 银川至百色国家高速公路广西境乐业至百色段是国家高速公路网G69银川至龙邦高速公路的重要组成部分,也是广西高速公路网布局中“纵7线”天峨(黔桂界)至龙邦高速公路的重要路段。本项目起点北接贵州惠水至罗甸高速公路,终点通过百罗高速与在建的百色至龙邦高速公路相连。本项目的建设对于推进交通公共服务均等化、共享交通改革发展成果、加快建成小康社会进程、促进地区城镇化发展、推动沿线旅游产业发展、加密桂黔省际联络路网、构建出海出边第二通道以及应对自然灾害和国防安全等不可预见因素、实现广西与贵州两省(区)的优势互补具有极为重要的意义。本论文是以乐百(乐业至百色)高速公路实际项目为依托,在OD调查、交通量观测调查及其交通调查的基础上,分析相关线路及其影响区域的公路交通发展水平和特征,为交通量预测提供基础数据参数;然后结合经济、社会、技术调查与分析,确定了“四阶段”法和弹性系数预测方法,明确了预测的基本理论、内容和程序;最后结合乐百高速公路相关数据,应用“四阶段”法对乐百高速公路进行交通量预测,提出了预测路线2020年、2030年的远景年交通量发展规模和水平,为确定银川至百色国家高速公路广西境乐业至百色段的技术等级、工程设施标准规模和经济评价等提供重要的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Leye(Guangxi Province)-Baise part of Yinchuan-Baise National Highway is an important part of the national highway network G69 Yinchuan-Longbang Highway and Tian’e(Guizhou Province)-Longbang highway in the network of Guangxi highway network.The construction of the project has a very important significance in promoting the equalization of public transportation services,sharing transportation reform and development achievements,speeding up the process of building a well off society,promoting the development of urbanization in the region and the tourism industry along the line,encrypting the inter provincial liaison network,construction of the sea out of the edge of second channels and respond to natural disasters and national defense security and other factors which can not be foreseen.In this paper,through investigation and analysis of traffic of the Leye-Baise part of Yingchuan-Baise road,on the basis of the OD survey,observation and investigation of traffic and the traffic survey,analyzing traffic development level and characteristics of the line and its influencing area,providing basic data for the traffic forecast.Then combined with the economic,social,technical investigation and analysis,the "four stage" method and the elastic coefficient forecast method are determined and the basic theory,content and procedure of prediction;Finally,combined with the relevant data of Le hundred highway,the "four stage" method is used to forecast the traffic volume and giving the 2020-year and 2030-year scale and level of development of the vision traffic of predict routes.It provides an important basis to determine the technical level,engineering facilities standard and economic evaluation of the Leye(Guangxi Province)-Baise part of Yinchuan-Baise National Highway.更多还原