【作者】 王玥；

【导师】 王薇；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输工程（专业学位）， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 高速公路作为我国城市间的连接纽带发展迅速,但由超速行驶导致的事故频发、死亡率高严重威胁着生命及财产的安全。一方面,目前我国高速公路普遍采用全线统一的限速方式,可变限速覆盖率小并且设置不合理,包括影响因素考虑不全面并且存在频率过快驾驶员难以适应等问题。另一方面,高速公路交通环境系统是非线性、时变的,受道路线形、交通流、天气等不可控影响因素的影响,大环境无法用确定的模型进行描述。本文在对各影响因素分析研究的前提下,以模糊思想为理论基础构建了基于多元因素预判的高速公路可变限速控制模型,充分并合理考虑影响因素的影响并且通过预判的方式减少可变限速值的变换次数,以提高驾驶员舒适度、运行效率并保障行车安全。首先,分析各高速公路限速值的影响因素及其作用机理,求解各影响因素对基准限速值的修正系数,后运用层次分析的方法对各修正系数赋予权重,避免了因影响因素间相互作用导致对限速值重复修正、可变限速值偏小的情况;其次,运用模糊控制的基本思想构建了三个环境识别子模型,子模型共同组成的模糊预判系统可以对高速公路综合环境进行打分,在高速公路整体环境不佳的情况下对静态限速模型进行修正以适应真实道路环境;最后,在MATLAB以及SIMULINK的环境下对构建的多元因素预判限速控制模型进行建模、仿真,将系统输出的结果与传统限速方法得出的限速结果进行对比分析,验证本文所构建的可变限速控制模型的合理性、可行性。模糊控制是传统智能控制的一个重要的分支,是模仿人脑具有的模糊决策和推理功能来解决复杂问题的控制方法,为非线性、复杂问题的解决提供了新的方法。本文构建的基于模糊控制理论的预判系统,能够综合考虑多元因素对高速公路限速值的影响,使后续限速值控制合理化,并有效地减少高速公路可变限速值的变化次数、缩小可变限速值的浮动范围,增加驾驶员的服从度及舒适性、改善高速公路的通行能力、保证时效的最大化、减少事故的发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 The expressway is the connecting link between cities,and the operation efficiency and driving safety of the expressway are the hot spots of traffic research at home and abroad.The expressway speed limit control system is non-linear and time-varying,and influenced by the uncontrollable factors such as road shape,traffic volume,traffic composition and weather.It cannot be described by the determined model.Based on the analysis of each influencing factor,this paper designs a multi-factor predictive model of expressway based on fuzzy control,and then solved the variable speed limit value.This paper mainly studies the variable speed limit control of expressway from three aspects.Firstly,analyzed the factors which influenced the speed limit of the expressway and its mechanism quantitatively,and solved the correction coefficients of the influence factors on the reference speed limit.Then,given the weights of the correction coefficients by the method of analytic hierarchy process,which avoids the interaction between the factors.Secondly,designed three environmental identification controllers based on the basic principles of fuzzy control,the common composition of the fuzzy pre-judgment system can be integrated on the highway environment,correct the static speed limit to the real road environment if the overall environment of the expressway is poor.Finally,in the environment of MATLAB and SIMULINK,the design of the multi-factor predictive speed limit control system is modeled and simulated,and the result of the output is calculated by comparing the output with the speed limit results obtained by the traditional speed limit method,it is proved that the speed limit control scheme designed in this paper is reasonable and feasible.Fuzzy control is an important branch of traditional intelligent control.It is a control method that mimics the fuzzy decision and reasoning function of the human brain to solve the complex problem,which provides a new way for solving the complex problem of nonlinearity.Based on the pre-judgment system designed by fuzzy control theory,this paper can integrate the influence of multi-factors on the speed limit of expressway,effectively reduce the number of variable speed limit changes and reduce the range of variable speed limit,add the driver’s degree of service and comfort,and can effectively improve the capacity of the expressway,ensure the maximum time,reduce the occurrence of the accident.更多还原