【作者】 徐征；

【导师】 李俊江；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放后,中国经济获得了长足的发展,当前国民生产总值已然位居世界第二。而中国的经济发展始终得益于中国对外贸易的不断扩张和优化。2008年金融危机发生后,全球消费市场随全球经济环境一道出现了不断恶化的现象。中国作为全球最大贸易国,对外贸易导向型经济面临着严峻的挑战。为了解决现实问题,我国于2013年年末提出了“一带一路”战略,2015年由多个部委联合发表的文件明确了其核心目标,强调实现“贸易畅通”是策略的重中之重。东盟十国是“一带一路”战略中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的起点,也是未来中美竞争的前沿阵地,从地缘优势和国际战略的角度考量,需要给于这片地区足够的关注。从经贸关系角度考虑,东盟十国在进入21世纪后不断强化与我国的经贸往来,彼此的贸易量出现了快速的提升,2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区成立后,东盟超过日本成为我国第三大贸易伙伴,东盟国家已然成为影响我国对外贸易质与量的重要部分。寻找能与东盟十国深化贸易合作的路径具有深刻的现实意义。自里昂惕夫之谜被提出后,产业内贸易理论不断发展,得到了众多经济学家的不断补充。当前学者也多以具有融合化性质的产业内贸易理论作为理论依据,来解释中国与东盟国家的贸易现象和问题,这说明“一带一路”战略中除“贸易畅通”以外的其余“四通”会对“贸易畅通”产生影响。要素禀赋理论也对中国与东盟十国之间进行产业间贸易提供了很好的解释。本文首先详尽地交待了研究背景和研究意义,来说明研究中国与东盟十国彼此贸易合作路径的必要性。并借助对已有文献的梳理和对相关贸易理论的分析,为下文研究提供足够的铺垫;其次,将从正反两个维度说明中国与东盟十国的贸易合作现状,且不仅要展现出彼此已获得的贸易合作中可喜成果和可以进一步合作的潜力空间,也着重强调彼此关系中存在一些风险会影响到贸易畅通的实现,需要时刻警惕和妥善处理。再次,本文将分析中国与东盟十国的贸易相似性及其变化过程,并给于相应的解释,以便清晰地认识中国同东盟国家进一步扩大贸易额并最终可以实现贸易畅通的潜力空间。再从“一带一路”战略中提出的“五通”思想中选取影响因素,查找2005-2014十年跨度的中国与东盟十国贸易的面板数据,并通过构建合适的引力模型,观察和解释引力模型中各个自变量系数的结果,得到具有解释力的实证依据。最后,根据引力模型反映的结果,结合“一带一路”战略的实际内容,给出中国与东盟十国可以进一步深化贸易合作的思考与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese economy get a great development after the beginning of reform and opening-up policy.And Chinese current GDP has ranked second in the world.These achievements are come from the expansion and purity of Chinese international trade.However,after the financial crisis in 2008,global consumer market deteriorated a lot just like global economic climate.China as the world’s largest international trade country,the international trade oriented economy faces a severe challenge.To deal with realistic problem,our country put forward “The Belt and The Road” strategy in the end of 2013 and this tactic became national top strategy soon.In 2015 a number of ministries jointly issued a document to confirm the main targets of the tactic and point the importance to get a better international trade at the same time.ASEAN is the start-point of“The 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road”and the frontline of the competition between China and America.From the geographical advantages and international strategic point,we should pay enough attention to this region.From the view of economy,ASEAN countries strengthen economic and trade activities with China in twenty-first Century.The volume of international trade rise rapidly.In 2010,China and ASEAN established China ASEAN Free Trade Area together.Then ASEAN became China’s third largest trading partner and have more power in the influence to Chinese international trade.To find a more reasonable way to improve the trade cooperation with ASEAN countries has a significant meaning.Since the leentief secret was proposed,the theory of intra-industry trade get a time to develop.Then many economists added content of this kind of theory.The scholars always use this theory to explain the phenomenon and problem between China and ASEAN countries at present.It also shows that the other four points from “The Belt and The Road” strategy has an impact on process to have a better international trade.The theory of factory endowment has a good description to inter-industry trade between China and ASEAN.In the first part of my treatise,I will make a detailed description on the background and significance of this research to illustrate the necessity to improve the international trade of China and ASEAN countries.And then I will clear up some mutual literature,analysis some theories of international trade,to offer enough fundamental for later research.Secondly,I will explain the trade cooperation status from two dimensions about positive side and negative side,and not only to show promising results and potential of further trade cooperation each other,also show that the risk of some factors maybe has a bad influence to cooperation.Again,in order to know the space to improve.This paper will analyze trade similarity index and give the corresponding explanation.I will build gravity model with the idea of “The Belt and The Road” and mutual panel data from 2004 to 2014.To observe and explain coefficients of each independent variable in the gravity model.Finally,I will give some advises to the way to the cooperation between China and ASEAN countries according to the result of my gravity model and the content of “The Belt and The Road” strategy.更多还原